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Friday, 26 January 2024

Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Pick- Women's Final (Saturday 27th January)

The men's Semi Finals brung the drama in different ways on Friday.

The first of those saw Jannik Sinner crush Novak Djokovic and it was a remarkable performance from the Italian. He did not face a single Break Point and was unfortunate to not win in straight sets, but it was a very impressive performance and Sinner may just be ready to win a Grand Slam title and fulfil all of the potential he has shown.

The second Semi Final was a classic- Alexander Zverev is going to be feeling absolutely sick that he failed to get the job done against Daniil Medvedev having led 2-0 in sets.

He had chances, but Zverev played the big points so poorly in the last three sets, while there isn't much he could have done about the mishit that ended up giving Medvedev Set Point in the Fourth Set rather than the German reaching Match Point. On a number of occasions Alexander Zverev was two points away from really being in control of the Semi Final, but it is the 5-4 lead in the Fourth Set Tie-Breaker with two serves to come, which will really hurt him.


Day 14 is reserved for the Women's Final and it features the defending Champion and a young player looking to become the latest surprising Grand Slam Champion.

My thoughts on that match can be read below.


Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: Ten years after Li Na won the Australian Open, another player from China will be looking to pick up the title in Melbourne. This time it is Qinwen Zheng, who has idolised Li Na, and who booked her place in the Final behind a strong Semi Final victory over Qualifier Dayana Yastremska.

A tough win was secured in the Third Round in a Super Tie-Breaker, but Qinwen Zheng has been relatively untroubled since then. Early nerves perhaps contributed to a slow start in the Semi Final, but Qinwen Zheng deserved her victory in the end as she now takes aim at her maiden Grand Slam title.

In her way is a mighty challenge.

Aryna Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and the defending Champion is clearly enjoying her time in Melbourne. She admitted as much after earning a bit of revenge against Coco Gauff, the player who beat Sabalenka in the US Open Final, and the level of performance produce by the Belarusian certainly makes her a strong favourite to win another title here.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Aryna Sabalenka throughout this tournament and her controlled aggression on the return has put players under a lot of pressure. If she serves as well as she has been, Sabalenka will be very difficult to contain and the World Number 2 has shown she can be very hard to peg back once she picks up some momentum.

Two top 11 Ranked players have been beaten in the last two Rounds and that will only further the belief in the Sabalenka camp.

We know that Dayana Yastremska is going to be inside the top 30 at the end of this tournament, but Qinwen Zheng could not have handpicked a better run to the Final. None of the players she has beaten have been Ranked inside the top 50 of the World Rankings before the Australian Open began and there is no doubting that this is a huge step up in class against a Grand Slam Champion.

Qinwen Zheng will be confident in her first serve having won almost 79% of points behind that shot in this tournament, although again you have to note that the level of opponent has not really been that high. Over the last twelve months, that number slips to 68% when only considering Zheng's matches against top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts, while the World Number 15 is just 1-4 against top 5 Ranked opponents in that time.

She would not have covered with this number of games in any of those losses to Iga Swiatek (twice), Elena Rybakina or against Aryna Sabalenka, who crushed Qinwen Zheng for the loss of just five games at the US Open last September.

A problem for Zheng is that she has struggled on the return when facing top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts and now has to face arguably the best serve on the WTA Tour.

None of Aryna Sabalenka's opponents in Melbourne have been able to win more than 66% of first serve points against her and the likelihood is that the World Number 2 is going to be seeing a lot of second serves. You cannot take anything away from the run the underdog has had in the Australian Open, but she has only gotten 53% of first serves in play and that likely means having to deal with a lot of pressure from the Sabalenka aggression against the second serve.

On the other side of the court, Aryna Sabalenka gets plenty of first serves in play and she has been very strong at protecting the second serve. That serve proved to be key in New York City where Qinwen Zheng was not able to earn a single Break Point and this really feels like a match that the defending Champion can win.

Aryna Sabalenka showed some real mental strength to come through some rocky moments in the Semi Final and that should set her up very well.

Of course she will have to handle the occasion and the pressure, but nothing in Melbourne suggests Aryna Sabalenka is going to falter now and she can pull away for a very strong win and a second Grand Slam title.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 22-49, - 59.54 Units (142 Units Staked, - 41.93% Yield)

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