There was one 'upset' in the Divisional Round of the NFL PlayOffs when the Kansas City Chiefs got the better of the Buffalo Bills, but fans of the Green Bay Packers will be wondering how their young team blew a huge opportunity to knock off the Number 1 Seed in the NFC.
Jordan Love's mistake at the end was costly, and one that he would love to have back. A turnover in desperation time is one thing, but throwing a Pick across your body with time on the clock and a couple of Time Outs was maddening and something Love and the Packers will think about in the off-season.
He showed enough to be rewarded with a new contract and there are plenty of positives for Green Bay to take into the 2024 season.
However, it is the two Number 1 Seeds who will be hosting the Championship Games on Sunday and conspiracy theorists will believe they know who will be facing off in the Super Bowl.
Over the last couple of seasons, the preview for the Super Bowl has featured two distinct colours which have ended up representing the two teams involved. For this year, the colours are red and purple and so many believe that means the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are 'scripted' to meet in Vegas in a couple of weeks from now.
Others suggest the NFL are desperate for Taylor Swift to be at the Super Bowl, and not as the Half Time show in this case, but Football is played on the field and it is no surprise the top Seeds are both favoured having home field advantage and also having been through one Bye in the PlayOffs.
After a 3-1 Divisional Round for the NFL Picks, a very strong season has already been secured for the selections made on the page.
Three more games are to come though and the ambition is to finish up with three more winners, beginning with the selections from the Championship Games which can be read below.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The AFC Championship Game is not being hosted at Arrowhead Stadium this season, but the Kansas City Chiefs are there again and that experience makes them very dangerous.
While there were some question marks about Patrick Mahomes and how his Chiefs would handle playing a road PlayOff game for the first time in the Divisional Round, all were answered positively as they got the better of the Buffalo Bills in a big game again.
After taking out the Number 2 Seed, the Kansas City Chiefs are now travelling to the Number 1 Seeded Baltimore Ravens, who had a much easier time of it in the Divisional Round as they crushed the Houston Texans. Playing the early game on Saturday compared with the Kansas City Chiefs going out last on Sunday will certainly tip some of the favour towards the Baltimore Ravens, but there is an immense amount of respect for the Chiefs and all they have achieved.
There are other factors in their favour- the Ravens have not left home since Christmas Day, while the Chiefs are in the tough spot of having to play back to back road games in the PlayOffs. For all of their experience and achievements, this is a first for Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City since he took over as the starting Quarter Back and it will be a considerable challenge.
Winning in Buffalo was huge, but it has come at a cost for Kansas City who will be without Joe Thuney on the Offensive Line. There is still a minor hope that Thuney will be able to suit up, but he is not trending in the right direction and that would be a huge blow to the Chiefs Offensive Line and Mahomes himself.
Andy Reid is not a massive fan of running the ball over and over, but the Chiefs showed they are willing to do what is needed when they beat the Bills in the Divisional Round. It has been one of the weaknesses of this very strong Baltimore Defensive unit and the importance of being able to establish the run will not be lost on anyone associated with Kansas City.
They have the capabilities of running the ball, although the absence of Joe Thuney will obviously have an impact on that. Losing their Left Guard may also mean the Chiefs are not able to keep the four man pass rush pressure generated by the Ravens from penetrating into the backfield and forcing Patrick Mahomes to get off his spot and have to move around before targeting Receivers down the field.
Unlike last week, the Kansas City Chiefs are not going to be facing a banged up Secondary in the Championship Game- Marlon Humphrey is back in practice and should be ready to go for the Ravens. This is going to put some pressure on the Receivers, who have been inconsistent all season, especially as they are facing a Baltimore Secondary who have been as good as any in the NFL over the course of the season.
So once again it comes back to running the ball effectively and at least giving Patrick Mahomes an opportunity- he will make all of the throws needed, but his Receivers are likely to be more confident in converting those short yardage positions than having to set longer routes and keeping concentration amongst a lot of contact.
The Baltimore Defensive unit have been very good at creating turnovers in contact and so it could be a potentially challenging day Offensively for the Kansas City Chiefs.
Unlike previous seasons, the Chiefs can rely on on the Defensive unit a lot more to make up for the Offensive struggles we have seen throughout the season.
Lamar Jackson had some PlayOff negatives to address last week in the Divisional Round and he and the Ravens did that very well against the Houston Texans. As well as the Texans had been playing Defensively, this is another test for the Baltimore Ravens as they look to return to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs are one of the top Defensive units in the NFL, but you may not always appreciate that with the Offense making the headlines. However, they have had real issues when it comes to stopping the run, including last week against James Cook, and this could be a real problem against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Injury has robbed the Ravens of their top two Running Backs, but they have still found a way to pound the rock behind this Offensive Line. Having someone like Jackson at Quarter Back helps and it will have been noted that Josh Allen was plenty effective when tucking the ball and running with it, which is what the Baltimore Quarter Back will do on designed plays too.
Running the ball should mean it is harder for Chris Jones and the Kansas City pass rush to impact the game, while also making it easier for Jackson when he does drop back to throw the ball down the field. The Ravens may not have the stand out names in the Receiving corps, but Zay Flowers has shown his worth and another week of practice should have Mark Andrews back on the field.
This is a huge boost for the Ravens and the home team can win this game.
Opposing Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is not an easy decision- he has won eight of eleven starts when set as the dog, including last week, while Mahomes is 5-0 against the spread when given more than a Field Goal worth of points.
A backdoor cover orchestrated by one of the best at Quarter Back cannot be ruled out, but the injury to Joe Thuney does really hurt this Chiefs team Offensively. They also match up poorly with the Ravens on the other side of the ball and Lamar Jackson's win over the Houston Texans will have just eased the PlayOff pressure he may have felt before the game was played.
Lamar Jackson has looked after the ball when throwing in recent games, but turnovers are likely going to be very important and Baltimore cannot afford to fumble their place in the Super Bowl.
The Ravens have enjoyed their schedule with this being a fourth consecutive home game and with a Bye Week thrown in too- this has not been that uncommon in recent years heading into the Championship Games and the previous eight teams are 5-3 against the spread with only one outright loser.
It will be close and competitive throughout with both teams looking to impose themselves on the line of scrimmage. However, the injury suffered by Joe Thuney could be key to separating the Ravens and Chiefs and Baltimore can do enough to get the better of the dominant AFC team and earn passage into the Super Bowl behind a cover.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: 1991.
That is the last time the Detroit Lions have played in the NFC Championship Game, but Dan Campbell and the management deserve a lot of credit for the way they have turned this franchise around. It would have been easy to move on from a Head Coach who had overseen a 3-13 record in his first season and then begun the next year at 1-6.
A strong end to the 2022 season saw the Lions only just miss out on the PlayOffs having won eight of ten games, but that run also gave the players and the entire franchise belief that they were heading in the right direction. They won the NFC North for the first time (they last won a Division when playing in the NFC Central), and the Detroit Lions have dismissed the challenge of the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to take their place in the Championship Game.
Confidence will not be an issue, but the Lions are not nearly as experienced as the San Francisco 49ers, who only just beat the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round last weekend. Winning is all that matters, and the 49ers will lean on the experience of now playing in their fourth NFC Championship Game in five seasons.
The 49ers have lost the last two NFC Championship Games, but both were on the road and they did reach the Super Bowl in 2019 after crushing the Green Bay Packers in the Championship Game at home.
Eight of the last ten NFC Championship Games have been won by the home team and the San Francisco 49ers are playing with an extra day of rest. This is perhaps contributing to the fact that the 49ers are strong favourites to win this game and move onto Las Vegas in a couple of weeks time, but it is unlikely to be plain-sailing.
When San Francisco have the ball, the line of scrimmage is going to be a huge part of how successful the 49ers are going to be. Kyle Shanahan wants his team to be able to run the ball effectively as it opens up the playbook, and he will be willing to give the Detroit Lions a different look up front and have Receivers carry the ball to make sure the team is always in front of the chains.
Any team that has Chrsitian McCaffrey in the backfield behind this Offensive Line will be very confident, but the Lions are not without hope. All season we have seen the Defensive Line step up and stop the run and they have held their last three opponents to an average of just 80 yards per game on the ground.
Teams have been able to pick up some big chunks at times, which will encourage the 49ers, but it is going to be a key part of the game as the strength of the 49ers Offense goes up against the strength of the Lions Defense.
If the Lions can continue to be as stout as they have been all season, they will certainly feel they can rattle Brock Purdy at Quarter Back. Injuries in the Lions Secondary does mean it is possible to throw the ball against them and the 49ers have a number of quality weapons that can be used, but keeping the 49ers in third and long will allow the Detroit pass rush to get into Purdy's face and perhaps produce an errant throw or two.
Brock Purdy should have been picked off at least once last week by the Green Bay Packers, but the weather looks more to the Quarter Back's liking on Sunday. This should mean he has a better day passing the ball, but that pass rush pressure could still be a major problem and it will give the Lions a chance to stall drives.
After playing home games indoors, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions will have been keen to see the weather report- he has played in California with the Los Angeles Rams, but it is Goff's time with the California Golden Bears that should mean he is happy enough in the outdoor conditions at Levi's Stadium.
Detroit will not want to put all of the pressure on their Quarter Back, but they will want to dominate on the ground with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs giving the Lions a dangerous duo behind Jared Goff. Both have been important to the Lions in their two PlayOff wins, while Gibbs is someone that can be a major threat whenever he gets a touch of the ball, although there is room for improvement.
They will certainly be encouraged by the performance of Aaron Jones and the Green Bay Packers and the Lions will be hoping to pick up from where their NFC North rivals left off in the Divisional Round. It is very important to establish the run to keep Jared Goff in positive field posiition and just give the Lions the kind of balance that will offer them every chance of earning the upset.
The Lions Offensive Line have opened up the running lanes, but they have also been very effective when it comes to protecting Jared Goff.
This feels really important to the outcome of the game- the Lions will have noted that there are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if they can keep Nick Bosa and Chase Young relatively quiet in the pass rush. Another important aspect of Jared Goff's play is that he has largely steered clear of turnovers and it was those mistakes from Jordan Love that cost the Green Bay Packers the opportunity of the upset.
Jared Goff will feel he has the weapons to win this game, even on the road. The numbers show that Goff has been more effective indoors, but the weather forecast is not a negative one for him and his time in California should mean that he cannot use playing outdoors as an excuse for underperforming.
His teams are 14-9 against the spread when set as an underdog of at least 5 points, while Goff and the Lions have really played well against the spread when facing the best teams in the NFL. They are also 12-7 against the spread as the road underdog since Dan Campbell took over as Head Coach and the Lions are being given plenty of points in this one.
The 49ers have been favoured in every game played this season, but they dropped to 3-6 against the spread as the home favourite in 2023 having failed to cover against the Green Bay Packers.
However, the biggest impact on this game has to be the status of Deebo Samuel- he has avoided a season ending injury having been knocked out of the Divisional Round game against the Packers, but he is questionable at best for Sunday.
While the 49ers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, Samuel looks to be the key to all they want to achieve Offensively. His ability to be a key part of the passing and the rushing side of the Offensive unit cannot be underestimated and it is telling that the 49ers are 10-3 against the spread in games that Deebo has started and finished, but amazingly 0-5 against the spread without him.
It may help the Lions slow the 49ers sufficiently enough to stay competitive throughout this one. Turnovers are likely going to be key for the team that reaches the Super Bowl, but Detroit certainly have a chance to win this one outright and so taking the points on offer looks to be the right play.
Of course there are a couple of practices to get through and Samuel is likely to be a game time decision, but the Lions can still be given an edge with this many points on their side.
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Divisional Round: 3-1, + 1.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.50% Yield)
Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)
Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)
Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
2023 Season: 78-57-4, + 16.11 Units
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