While the men's draw looks solid, the top half of the women's draw looks incredibly open.
Two of the four Semi Final matches have been set and both look like being very strong matches.
On Wednesday we will complete the final four line up, but it feels like an incredible opportunity for the four WTA players facing off in their Quarter Final matches on Day 11.
Linda Noskova, Dayana Yastremska, Anna Kalinskaya and Qinwen Zheng make up the quartet and one of those players will be playing in their maiden Grand Slam Final. They will be facing a former Grand Slam Champion in that Final on Saturday, but it could be a huge boost to their careers if they can go on and win the Australian Open crown, although no one outside of their individual teams would have really expected this kind of run.
Picking winners in those Quarter Final matches looks incredibly tough- the feeling is that Kalinskaya could certainly cause an upset, but the Noskova-Yastremska match could be filled with nerves.
The men's matches should see the four players dealing with nerves much better having played big Grand Slam matches in this Round previously and those two are the focus on the day.
Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev over 40.5 games: The women's draw has once again been decimated by upsets across the board, but seven of the eight men's Quarter Finalists are currently Ranked in the top 10 as those players continue to lead the way.
It should make for a strong end to a tournament that has featured so many upsets over the first ten days and every player left will feel they have a chance of winning the opening Grand Slam of the season.
Some will certainly be backed by outsiders more than others, but internally all of the players left standing will believe they have the tennis that is capable of winning a major.
Daniil Medvedev has not won the Australian Open, but he has twice been a Finalist here and he goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. However, he will be well aware of the dangers that Hubert Hurkacz poses, especially as the latter leads the head to head 3-2 despite being the lower Ranked player each time they have met.
That record includes a five set win at Wimbledon in 2021 and Hubert Hurkacz was able to snap the two match losing run on a hard court against Daniil Medvedev when beating him at the Miami Masters in 2022. They did not play one another in 2023, but the match up will not have changed too much for Hubert Hurkacz and the underdog will certainly feel he has every chance of earning the upset to take his place in the final four.
The key will be the serve for the Pole who has held 92% of his service games played against Daniil Medvedev- at the same time, the World Number 3 has managed to hold 89% of his own service games when only considering the hard court matches between the two players.
There is no doubting that the serve has been an important factor in Hubert Hurkacz making it through to the Quarter Final and he has held 93% of his service games played in Melbourne in 2024. Hubert Hurkacz has been allowed to get on the front foot when it comes to the return with the serve working so well and his returning numbers have been very good in the tournament too.
Daniil Medvedev will be definitely tested in this match and his numbers on the hard courts have dipped in the last couple of seasons. Even in his run in this tournament, Medvedev has only been able to hold 82% of his service games played and he will have to be a lot more focused on that side of his tennis against an opponent serving as big as Hurkacz is right now.
You can make a case for the underdog, especially as Hubert Hurkacz has a win over Daniil Medvedev at a Grand Slam event, albeit on the grass of Wimbledon which is arguably the World Number 3's least favourite surface.
The expectation is that Medvedev will be much stronger on a hard court, even if the head to head is in favour of the opponent. The last two wins for Hubert Hurkacz have both been in straight sets, but this looks like a potential battle in the making and the first three matches all saw both men win at least one set.
Tie-Breakers are likely to be in play, and that should mean four sets will be enough for this match to surpass the total line set.
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: It was Alexander Zverev who won the first two matches ever played against Carlos Alcaraz, but the latter was Ranked outside the top 40 in both of those back in 2021. Since cracking the top 10, Alcaraz has won three of five matches and that includes a crushing win at the US Open last September at the same stage of that Grand Slam.
Alexander Zverev earned some revenge by beating Carlos Alcaraz in a deciding set at the ATP World Tour Finals in Turin, but that was a match played on an indoor hard court. The conditions in Melbourne have been pretty quick, which would suit the German, but you cannot ignore the time he has already spent on the court.
Some may describe it as potentially being undercooked, but Carlos Alcaraz should be the fresher player in this Quarter Final having spent around nine hours on the court compared with the fourteen hours Alexander Zverev has had to negotiate. The fact that Zverev has played two five set matches already in the four played in Melbourne is also a negative factor going against the underdog set for the match.
The serve has been important for Alexander Zverev who has held 89% of his service games played in the tournament. This has made up for the relative struggles on the return with Zverev breaking in just 15% of return games played, which is a similar level shown to when he was playing in the United Cup earlier this month.
A poor returning number has to be a concern ahead of facing Carlos Alcaraz who has held 98% of his service games played at the Australian Open in 2024. He has been broken just once in the four matches played and that has allowed the Spaniard to just free himself up on the return, which has led to breaks in 33% of return games played.
In the two hard court matches played against one another in 2023, it was Carlos Alcaraz who had the slightly superior serving numbers in terms of percentage of points won. He also played the big Break Points a little better than Alexander Zverev, despite finishing 1-1 in the head to head, and you have to feel the fresher player will be able to come through in this important Quarter Final.
At his best Alexander Zverev can be very dangerous, but he may not have the energy to keep levels high throughout this Quarter Final and that should give Carlos Alcaraz the opportunity to pull away by the end.
MY PICKS: Hubert Hurkacz-Daniil Medvedev Over 40.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 20-45, - 54.86 Units (130 Units Staked, - 42.20% Yield)
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