Let's face facts.
This is a page where the idea is to find winning selections for the season, but it has been an incredibly difficult week to digest.
Simply put I have never been on such a poor run at a Grand Slam event and the Australian Open has really been a tournament filled with surprises.
For some reason the top players have not really produced to the level expected, while those who have offered little in warm up events have seemingly kept their best form for Melbourne.
There are no excuses- some bad luck is clear, but there have been a some horrifically poor outcomes to the research and it has to be expected that this is going to be a losing tournament.
The question now is how to prevent it being a truly historically bad start to a season, one from which we will be playing catch up the rest of the way.
Little moments within matches have been all going the other way as would have been imagined- the 'weaker' players are finding a way to win the big points more often than not, which is really not sustainable as the twelve month numbers would indicate. However, the Australian Open has been a tournament that produces plenty of surprises due to its placement in the calendar and so that sprinkling of luck is needed, especially as it has been missing so much this past few days.
It is clearly not ideal that throwing darts at a board to determine selections would likely have produced a much stronger result than we have had so far this week, but will players continue to underperform the numbers?
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 sets v Sebastian Korda: High expectations have always been placed on the shoulders of Sebastian Korda who comes from an extremely sporting family. His sisters continue to lead from the very top of the LPGA Tour, but Sebastian Korda's progress has been held back by injury and he is once again edging towards cracking the top 20 of the Tennis World Rankings.
His father, Petr, is a former World Number 2 on the Tennis Tour and actually won the Australian Open twenty-six years ago so there are some big shoes for Sebastian Korda to fill. Twelve months ago Sebastian Korda reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam for the first time right here in Melbourne, and he upset two top 10 Ranked players before being forced to retire within that Quarter Final defeat.
Another top 10 player stands in front of Sebastian Korda and the second week at the 2024 Australian Open and this is going to be a significant challenge for the American.
Andrey Rublev needed five sets to come through his opening match, but has won a title already this year and was much stronger in the Second Round as he dismissed Christopher Eubanks in straight sets. Consistency has been key for the World Number 5 and he has reached the Quarter Final in five of the last six Grand Slams in which Rublev has competed.
There will be a really healthy respect for Sebastian Korda who has an 11-15 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts in his career. That is impressive enough considering Korda is still progressing on the Tour, although he will know he needs to improve on the return in those top matches to really get himself moving up the World Rankings.
You may not want to read too much into the Andrey Rublev 2-0 head to head advantage over Sebastian Korda considering they have not faced each other since October 2022. Both have improved though and Andrey Rublev has tended to beat those players that he is expected to on the hard courts, which is backed up by a 25-5 record against players Ranked outside the top 20 on this surface.
That record remains strong over the last twelve months when looking at results against players Ranked outside the top 10 (30-8). Very strong serving numbers have been backed up by the aggressive return of serve and it should give Andrey Rublev the opportunities to win this one in either three or four sets.
My lean is that Sebastian Korda is more likely to win at least a set, but Andrey Rublev should be able to build on a strong Second Round win and likely cover the set handicap in this Third Round match.
Alex De Minaur - 7.5 games v Flavio Cobolli: Any time you are able to earn a win over Novak Djokovic will give you massive confidence, but it will also have raised expectations around Alex De Minaur at his home Grand Slam. With Nick Kyrgios injured and Ashleigh Barty very much enjoying her retirement, Alex De Minaur is the big Australian hope at the Open in 2024.
He has played well in the first couple of matches in Melbourne and Alex De Minaur will go into this Third Round match as a strong favourite too.
After beating an Italian in the last Round, Alex De Minaur faces another player from that nation, although Flavio Cobolli is a Qualifier who is Ranked way below Matteo Arnaldi.
He is only 21 years old though and Flavio Cobolli will be very confident having won three Qualifiers to enter the main draw and then seeing off two opponents Ranked much higher than himself. One of those wins came against a top 20 Ranked player in Nicolas Jarry, but facing Alex De Minaur and the home crowd will be a much different challenge for Flavio Cobolli.
It has to be said that the run has come out of left field considering his previous hard court experience- the majority of his tennis on this surface was either played on the Challenger Tour or in Qualifiers last year and Flavio Cobolli was beaten in the opening Qualifying Rounds at both the Australian Open and US Open.
Flavio Cobolli has to be respected though- he has a decent serve and gets plenty out of his return game so this is going to be a tough match for Alex De Minaur, even in his current form.
However, Alex De Minaur has proven that he can handle the expectations on his shoulders and looked really good in the Second Round. Matching that margin of victory will be almost impossible to achieve, but his numbers have been very strong in hard court matches played against players outside the top 50 and then top 100 over the last twelve months.
The Australian is not going to overpower you with his tennis, but he will look to wear down Flavio Cobolli with his know-how around the hard court. His numbers against those players lower down the Rankings have shown that Alex De Minaur has the qualities to back up his serve, but also will find a way to get his teeth into return games and that may give him the edge to win and cover this mark.
With the home crowd behind him, Alex De Minaur can reach the Fourth Round at the Australian Open for a third year in a row.
Taylor Fritz - 4.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: There was a high hope in the United States that Taylor Fritz could be the player that ended the long wait for a men's Grand Slam Champion from the nation. He has managed to reach as high as World Number 5, but Taylor Fritz has perhaps struggled to deal with the weight of expectation at the biggest tournaments and his record is pretty abysmal.
Despite his career high World Ranking, Taylor Fritz has yet to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final, while he has only managed to make it through to two Quarter Finals.
In fact, Fritz has only made it into the second week of a Grand Slam on three occasions previously and that is clearly a massive concern when backing him to do that this week at the Australian Open.
Beating Fabian Marozsan will give Taylor Fritz a place in the second week of this Grand Slam, but he cannot take anything for granted having needed five sets in the First Round against an opponent Fritz should have beaten much more comfortably. The Second Round win was more impressive, but Fabian Marozsan has beaten a former Grand Slam Champion and one Seed to make it through to the Third Round and that will have given him plenty of confidence.
The draw might have helped considering Marin Cilic is only recently back from an injury and Francisco Cerundolo is struggling for form, but Fabian Marozsan had to win those matches and has done so very efficiently.
Warm up losses to Roberto Bautista Agut and Ben Shelton are a little concerning and there is little doubt that this is another step up for the Hungarian.
However, he did beat veteran Richard Gasquet at the US Open before losing in four sets to Adrian Mannarino and Fabian Marozsan may need some help from Taylor Fritz if he is going to secure an upset.
A strong run to the Quarter Final at the Shanghai Masters might have just given Fabian Marozsan the belief to compete with the top names on the Tour, but he is just 8-8 against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. It is the return which has made Marozsan competitive, but a strong serving day from Taylor Fritz should give the American the edge.
Taylor Fritz has shown that over the last year by holding 92% of service games played on the hard courts against opponents Ranked outside the top 50. The record is 20-4 after a poor end to the season, but Fritz should have plenty of belief of his own that he can impose his tennis on this inexperienced opponent.
Last year at the US Open, Taylor Fritz beat four players Ranked outside of the top 50 in his run to his second Grand Slam Quarter Final and the feeling is that he will have a bit too much all around for Fabian Marozsan in this Third Round match.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Magdalena Frech - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 8-27, - 40.48 Units (70 Units Staked, - 57.83% Yield)
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