Any winning Pick seems to have to go through the wringer before getting over the line, while it is a train straight to the losing station when things have gone wrong.
Taylor Fritz needing about three hundred Break Points, while giving away Breaks as soon as his opponent got to the same position, summed up the way this week has moved.
Another one- how many people would back against Novak Djokovic earning at least one break of serve when opening serve and leading by two sets? Unbelievably he did not even fashion a Break Point having broken serve three times in the first two sets and missed the cover by a single game having won a Tie-Breaker to move through.
Colour me surprised.
It is not making a lot of sense to me- when players who have career records of 4-21 against top 50 Ranked opponents suddenly play better than most top 10 players, you have to wonder what is going on?!
The Australian Open has a history for surprising results, but this has been a tournament when even those winning matches are making it an absolute chore to do so.
Going into the second week, you have to believe that will change, but it just looks like one of those tournaments.
Once again it is a frustrating day when you think of how close a couple of the losing Picks came to a cover... Instead they have produced another losing day, the fifth in six and it just feels like taking one too many body shots when expecting much more of a positive impact.
Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 games v Nuno Borges: A title win in Brisbane and two solid performances against players that are far better than their World Ranking would suggest will have given Grigor Dimitrov plenty of confidence. The feeling is that this Third Round match is against a weaker opponent than the previous two, but the Bulgarian will do well to focus as he looks to reach the second week at the Australian Open for the first time since 2021.
The focus has to come from the fact that Grigor Dimitrov is facing someone that is Ranked higher than the previous two opponents.
Nuno Borges has also eliminated one of the Seeded players in a crushing Second Round win, although that was a real surprise considering this is a player that has not had the most success on a hard court and his warm up results had been pretty poor. This is another step up for Nuno Borges, but he will be playing with some confidence considering manner of his two wins.
The numbers suggest the run is not sustainable without picking up his form, but Nuno Borges will feel that all of the pressure is on the Bulgarian rather than himself. He can come out with little expectation on his shoulders, but Borges has shown very little form on his surface and especially not when facing top 50 Ranked opponents.
His victory in the Second Round was against such an opponent, but Nuno Borges will know how much happier Grigor Dimitrov is on this surface compared to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
The match is very much expected to be played on the Dimitrov racquet- he has opened 2024 in very strong serving form and that has allowed the former World Number 3 to really take an aggressive and proactive approach to the return of serve. While he has faced 16 Break Points in the first two matches, Grigor Dimitrov has created 37 Break Points of his own and the expectation is that the Bulgarian will have Nuno Borges under pressure for much of the match.
There is a competitive spirit about Nuno Borges that does make him potentially a little dangerous, but Grigor Dimitrov is playing at a very good level and should be able to exert that influence on the outcome of the match.
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 sets v Ugo Humbert: Any time a player is forced to go the distance at a Grand Slam, you do have to wonder how much they may have left in the tank going forward. There are a number of players that have spent more time on the court than they may have imagined, but Hubert Hurkacz did not have as long a match as a five setter may indicate.
He came through relatively comfortably at the end and Hubert Hurkacz has made a solid start to his 2024 season as he quietly moves under the radar. That is a surprise considering the Pole goes into the Australian Open as the World Number 9, but it may be down to the fact that Hurkacz has only reached the Quarter Final at one previous Grand Slam and that was when he played in the Wimbledon Semi Final in July 2021.
Hubert Hurkacz did make the second week in two of the four Grand Slams played last season and so he will be first focusing on at least matching his performance at the Australian Open twelve months ago. The exit of Holger Rune has really opened up his little section of the draw, but Hubert Hurkacz cannot afford to take any opponent lightly.
That is especially the case against Ugo Humbert who has won both of his matches in Melbourne in four sets.
The lefty has reached a career high World Ranking at Number 20 and holds that mark going into the Australian Open, but his run in Melbourne was ended in the Third Round twelve months ago and this is another tough looking match for Ugo Humbert.
Ugo Humbert has a 5-8 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and that means nothing can be taken for granted against the Frenchman. The serve is a weapon that can build pressure on opponents when Humbert is finding his best form and that is going to be very important for him if he is going to earn the upset in this Third Round match.
Previous matches against Hubert Hurkacz suggests the higher Ranked player will have the edge- they did play out a tight match on an indoor court in Basel at the back end of the 2023 season, but Hurkacz had almost double the amount of Break Points and that usually will lead to a victorious effort.
While there isn't a huge amount between the players in the previous matches, Hubert Hurkacz is winning around 7% more points behind serve and that narrow edge makes all of the difference in a sport of inches.
The Hubert Hurkacz return game has been exposed when he has played the better players on the Tour on the hard courts, but this may be the right opponent for him in this Third Round. Tie-Breakers are likely going to be key, but the slightly superior Hubert Hurkacz serve could see him come through in three or four sets.
Tommy Paul - 1.5 sets v Miomir Kecmanovic: This is going to be feeling like something of a revenge tour for Tommy Paul who got the better of Jack Draper in the Second Round having lost both previous matches against him. Now he has to face an opponent who actually beat Tommy Paul right here at the Australian Open two years ago and who has already beaten one Seed in the draw.
It is perhaps an unexpected run for Miomor Kecmanovic, but this is a player who has shown solid ability on the hard courts previously.
The last twelve months has been more difficult for Miomir Kecmanovic who had lost nine of eleven matches played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts. However, the Serb will be feeling much better about his level after beating two of those Ranked opponents already in 2024, including in the last Round, while that win over Tommy Paul at the Australian Open will further his belief.
Tommy Paul has won a more recent match against Miomir Kecmanovic when moving past him at the Cincinnati Masters back in August in a match the American dominated. It was only a wasteful display on the Break Points created that made things look a lot closer on the scoreboard, but Paul will know that he needs to just have a bit more composure when he chances come his way.
That was the only negative out of his win over Jack Draper in the last Round, but Tommy Paul has to be happy with his overall level. He is close to his peak World Ranking, but Paul does have to defend points from a run to the Australian Open Semi Final from last year and he does look capable of getting the better of this opponent.
Nothing comes easy for any player that has had some difficulty on the returning side of his tennis over the last twelve months, although the numbers have been decent enough. He has broken in almost 28% of return games played when only considering players Ranked outside of the top 20 and in matches played on the hard courts and you do have to feel that Tommy Paul will find the answers to come through this match.
Miomir Kecmanovic can be dangerous and his win over Tommy Paul at the Australian Open came in a match that was very competitive. However, it was a match in which Paul had more Break Points and the feeling is that he can earn some revenge by getting through this Third Round match in three or four sets.
MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Emma Navarro - 3.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Clara Burel - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 11-32, - 45.72 Units (86 Units Staked, - 52.16% Yield)
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