The NFL PlayOffs are usually an exciting time of the year, but fans will be hoping for a lot more drama in the Divisional Round than we saw in the Super Wild Card Round last time out.
Six games were played, but five of those ended up in blowouts and only the Los Angeles Rams-Detroit Lions game kept fans engrossed right down to the wire.
Some of the final scores looked more competitive than the games actually were, but we are hoping for better in the Divisional Round.
That may be asking too much with two big favourites and another who are favoured by almost a Touchdown.
The two Number 1 Seeds are both back to host games, although perhaps not against the opponent they would have been expecting to face, but it just feels a little underwhelming. That may be partly down to the fact that the Miami Dolphins season ended in a whimper, but I am also a fan of the sport and I want to see top games and it just feels like those are missing right now.
It is very difficult to look beyond the top Seeds meeting in the Super Bowl, but the hope is that we see some drama this week.
Another good week for the NFL Picks has kept the momentum going- after losing the opening Wild Card Pick, the next five came back as winners and that should ensure a winning season at the very least.
Backing that up in the Divisional Round is still very much the aim with the selections from the games added below.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: This is a rematch of a Week 1 game, but the Houston Texans and CJ Stroud are going to feel they are much more rounded a few months later. The Quarter Back was making his first ever start in the NFL when losing to the Baltimore Ravens, but will lead the Texans into this Divisional Round game having the momentum of winning three games in a row, including blowing out the Cleveland Browns in the Super Wild Card Round game.
Of course this is a big step up in challenge for the Houston Texans, who have been hit by injury on both sides of the ball.
One thing is facing the top Seed in the AFC, but another is facing them knowing the Baltimore Ravens are rested and also hosting the game outdoors in what is expected to be cold weather.
However, that did not work out very well for the Baltimore Ravens when last in this position- Lamar Jackson might be having a MVP level season, but he will have some mental demons to exorcise having struggled to take his regular season form into the PlayOffs and with plenty of talk about the loss to the Tennessee Titans in the last couple of weeks.
John Harbaugh is trying to follow brother Jim by winning the biggest prize in his sport, but he does not have the best record when preparing his Ravens out of a Bye Week. His team have effectively had three weeks off, which is going to raise another concern, but the Baltimore Ravens should have key players back.
Most notable could be Mark Andrews, although his status is still Questionable for this Divisional Round game. The Ravens have continued to play well even in his absence, but Andrews could be a huge boost for the team if they are able to get him back into the fold.
The Ravens are going to want to run the ball first and foremost and use that to open up the passing lanes, although the weather may hinder any impact through the air anyway. You have to give DeMeco Ryans and the Houston Coaching Staff a lot of credit for the vast improvements made on the Defensive Line, but injuries have perhaps contributed to the Texans having a little more difficulty in stopping the run down the stretch.
Losing JK Dobbins has hurt, but Dalvin Cook has been signed and the veteran can join Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in helping the Ravens establish the run. Of course they have also have Lamar Jackson who can tuck the ball and pick up plenty of yards on the ground himself, so the feeling is that the Ravens can keep themselves in front of the chains.
It should mean they can make plays through the air when they decide they can- the gusty winds could be a problem, but throwing out of third and manageable is a good place to be. Lamar Jackson has some quality weapons in the passing game that can expose this Texans Secondary and the feeling is that the Ravens can at least produce an Offensive outing more like what we have seen in the regular season than we did when they faced the Titans in this position in 2019.
You cannot ignore the poor recent record the Ravens have had in the post-season though and there is going to be plenty of pressure on them.
Conversely, Houston may arrive feeling like they have already massively overachieved and having nothing to lose, while they have a Quarter Back that has shown throughout his rookie season that he can elevate this team.
The Texans did win at Cincinnati outdoors, but they were well beaten by the New York Jets and you do have to wonder if CJ Stroud can take his success on the road.
He is a quality Quarter Back, but this is another top Defensive unit in front of him and one that is much healthier than the Cleveland Browns who were beaten in the Super Wild Card Round. The score in that one got out of hand for the Browns once Joe Flacco became a turnover machine with a couple of Pick-Sixes, so the expectation is that this is another big test for the rookie Quarter Back.
You have to believe the experience of playing here in Week 1 will help, but Stroud is without some key Offensive pieces and the Offensive Line continues to struggle in pass protection. The Texans would hope to establish the run against the Ravens, which is the weakness on this side of the ball, but they can only be used as long as the game is competitive, while you also have to factor in the struggles the Houston Offensive Line have had in establishing the run down the stretch.
A lot of the pressure has been on CJ Stroud, although the rookie has obviously accepted that and played very well. In this one he is likely going to be scrambling around and looking to make plays, but that becomes difficult against this Ravens Secondary, even if Marlon Humphrey is expected to miss out.
A backdoor cover is possible with the line as high as it is, while Lamar Jackson has been a Quarter Back to oppose when he has been favoured by more than 3 points. His PlayOff record is abysmal considering the talent, but the Ravens do match up pretty well with the Texans and the outdoor conditions should favour Baltimore a bit more too.
CJ Stroud has looked after the ball very well as the pressure has intensified during this three game winning run, but the Ravens will generate pressure and they may be able to create a turnover or two to just pull away for the win and cover.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: If this Divisional Round game had been played a year ago, all of the talk would have been about Aaron Rodgers and being overlooked by the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL Draft. The veteran Quarter Back has moved on and the Green Bay Packers will head off to face the Number 1 Seed in the NFC with Jordan Love at Quarter Back instead.
It has been an up and down season for Love personally and for this young Packers team, but there has been enough to see to have fans believing that a Championship will be possible in the coming years. This year might be too soon, but the Packers will not be lacking confidence having humbled the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the Super Wild Card Round.
This is a significant step up against a rested San Francisco team that are favoured to win the Super Bowl.
Last season an injury to Brock Purdy proved costly in the NFC Championship Game and so there is plenty of motivation for the 49ers to right that wrong, and it is no surprise to see them as a big favourite. Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread when set as the home favourite in the PlayOffs and many fans will be expecting them to improve on that over the next two weekends to earn a trip to Las Vegas in mid-February.
The 49ers will not be overly concerned about back to back home losses to end the regular season, especially as the last one was with the backups.
Having a couple of weeks off has given the starters a boost and the 49ers are coming in looking very healthy, which is a concern for every other team with Super Bowl ambitions. They will certainly feel this health gives them every chance to impose themselves on the Offensive side of the ball and the Green Bay Packers have long had issues trying to stop a Kyle Shanahan San Francisco Offense.
With the Offensive Line intact, the 49ers are expected to run the ball right at the Green Bay Packers and Christian McCaffrey should be able to produce a big game. While the Packers Defensive Line have stiffened down the stretch, they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one San Francisco trot out onto the field and Green Bay have allowed 4.8 yards per carry on the road this season.
Motion and sweeps will give the 49ers a way to establish the run too and McCaffrey can be a big threat as a pass-catcher so the feeling is that the home team will be in third and manageable throughout the game.
Some may see Brock Purdy as a product of the system rather than him being an elite Quarter Back, but it doesn't really matter because he is producing on the field. With Jaire Alexander Questionable, Purdy should be able to use play-action to hit his Receivers down the field, while it also makes it very difficult to get to the Quarter Back for a solid pass rush if the Packers are playing behind the chains.
The 49ers have been very impressive in their dominance in the regular season with all but one of their wins being by double digits and so they have to be respected.
Much is going to depend on the Green Bay Offensive Line in this one as the Packers look to be competitive in this Divisional Round game. A lot of credit has been given to the development of Jordan Love, but the key to this one may actually be Aaron Jones and the Line as they look to establish the run against the 49ers and sustain drives.
The Offensive Line have offered Jordan Love time in the pocket when he has dropped back to throw, but it is much easier to try and contain Nick Bosa and Chase Young if they are in third and manageable. So the key is to make sure that Jones gets things going on the ground, although the 49ers are well aware of the importance of shutting down the Running Back and have played well in recent games when it comes to defending the run.
Jordan Love has been careful with the ball, but that becomes more challenging if the team are chasing points or in obvious passing situations. He has a young Receiving corps that have stepped up as the season has worn on, while Christian Watson should offer more in the Divisional Round having only just returned for the PlayOffs.
There are one or two holes in the San Francisco Secondary that can be exploited if the Green Bay Packers are at their best and Jordan Love may be able to engineer a backdoor cover. They covered as a big road underdog in the Super Wild Card Round and the Packers have a solid 7-4 record against the spread when given points this season.
Of course opposing San Francisco in their own Stadium has proven to be a poor choice, although they have not been as effective covering the spread with the layers putting down big spreads knowing the public want to back them. In this Divisional Round game, the public look to be favouring the Packers, but they do have the qualities at the line of scrimmage on the Offensive side of the ball to find a way to a backdoor cover at worst.
Kyle Shanahan has proven to be a PlayOff master as the home favourite, but there looks to be enough points to be worth getting behind the Packers for a second week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: The last Super Wild Card Round game saw the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 'upset' the Philadelphia Eagles, although the home team were a trendy pick on the day. That means the Buccaneers get the chance to travel to the Detroit Lions in the Divisional Round and Tampa Bay will appreciate the fact that this game is played under a Dome (even if a journalist asked Todd Bowles about how the weather will impact his team, doh).
Make no mistake, the Buccaneers are rightly set as the underdog against a Lions team that held off former Quarter Back Matthew Stafford in a home win last Sunday. That does mean Detroit have a slight advantage when it comes to the rest and recovery, while home advantage is also going to be important for Dan Campbell's team.
All credit has to be given to the Head Coach, but plenty should also be reserved for Jared Goff who has proven he is anything but a bust at Quarter Back. It was his play that helped the Lions to a big road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the regular season in a game hosted by the Buccaneers, although the Defensive unit also had a really impressive showing when these teams met in October.
Unfortunately for the Lions, injury have lessened the impact being made by the Defensive unit compared with earlier in the regular season. They were able to keep the Rams out of the End Zone at key moments in the second half in their Super Wild Card Round win, but the Lions Secondary are struggling and now face a Tampa Bay team with quality Receivers.
The expectation was that there was going to be a significant drop off for the Receivers with the Buccaneers moving from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, but the latter has to be given a lot of praise for the season his team have had. While not perfect, Mayfield has made enough plays to believe he can help his team be a lot more competitive than they were in the home loss.
A lot of pressure will be on the Quarter Back considering the struggles the Buccaneers have had when it comes to establishing the run. There were some positive plays in the win over the Eagles on Monday Night Football, but this week they are facing a Detroit Defensive Line that have been stout all season and continue to clamp down on the run very effectively.
This most certainly will allow the Lions to let their pass rushers off the leash and they will be expected to hit Baker Mayfield a lot in this game. The Quarter Back has shown toughness to hang in the pocket and make his throws down the field, but that pressure can lead to mistakes and that will be a huge blow to any hopes the Buccaneers have in trying to earn the upset.
Avoiding those mistakes and playing the field position would be a huge success for Tampa Bay, while you also have to expect Baker Mayfield to get the ball to the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton in the passing game. The injuries in the Detroit Secondary has meant that teams have been able to pile up the numbers through the air and Baker Mayfield can at least give his team a chance.
Much like the Lions, the Buccaneers Defensive Line will also be looking to make Detroit one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. Running the ball has been a huge part of the successes that Jared Goff has had at Quarter Back and the Lions have a tandem at Running Back who have been very effective.
However, the Lions struggled to get much going on the ground when facing Tampa Bay in the regular season and it may be tough for both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in this one. The latter of the two is likely to have a bigger impact in the passing game, but forcing Detroit to become one-dimensional and rely on the Goff arm would feel like a big win for the road underdog.
This is a young Tampa Bay Secondary, but they showed they are playing at a better level than when these teams met in the regular season. Placing Detroit in obvious passing situations should give the Buccaneers a chance to get into the backfield and rush the Quarter Back, although Jared Goff has been pretty careful with his placement and that is also important.
He does have Receivers who can make some big plays in the passing game and the Lions have been much better at home this season.
However, they did fail to cover as the home favourite last week and this Tampa Bay team have been a feisty underdog.
The Buccaneers are not only 9-3 against the spread as an underdog this season, but that becomes 7-1 against the spread when set as the road underdog.
After the win on Monday Night Football, Baker Mayfield has improved to 3-0 against the spread as the underdog in the PlayOffs and that is a record that has to be respected. In his NFL career overall, Mayfield has been more productive in the role of an underdog and he clearly becomes motivated to upset the odds or perceived slights of being an underdog.
Detroit are a very good team and clearly improved under Dan Campbell, but they are dealing with post-season expectations and the Buccaneers may have a more 'care-free' attitude having overachieved to reach the Divisional Round. The Lions did crush the Denver Broncos as a 5.5 point favourite, but failed to cover here against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers as a bigger favourite.
I would have loved to have gotten a point more for the underdog, but even at this number, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can make enough plays in the passing game to stay with the home favourite.
As long as Baker Mayfield doesn't have a turnover-filled game, the road underdog looks the team to back with the points.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This has become a familiar PlayOff match up and it has been clear for a while that the Buffalo Bills were being built to make sure they can beat the Kansas City Chiefs. You can't blame the thinking with the Chiefs costing the Bills a potential Super Bowl a couple of times and clearly being the team to beat in the AFC in recent years.
There is one major difference in this game this year though.
This time the Buffalo Bills are hosting the Kansas City Chiefs who are playing on the road for the first time since Patrick Mahomes became the starting Quarter Back.
It will make a difference in terms of dealing with the home crowd and the noise, but the conditions should not be a major problem for the Chiefs to deal with. Only last week they played in about as bad a cold as you can imagine, but this week everything feels a bit more serene in Buffalo and that should allow both teams to produce their best.
We are still expecting cold and wind, but the Bills and Chiefs cannot use that as an excuse- depending on the Saturday results, the winner of this may even be playing for an opportunity to host the AFC Championship Game.
A bigger concern for Buffalo has to be the host of Defensive injuries picked up in their Monday night win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Wild Card Round. The delay means they have also had two days fewer rest than the Kansas City Chiefs who have already beaten one AFC East team in this PlayOff run.
While the Chiefs have come out largely healthy from last weekend, Buffalo have already ruled out Christian Benford, Taylor Rapp and Baylon Spector, while Rashal Douglas, Taron Johnson and Terrel Bernard are Questionable. The latter three are expected to suit up, but the Linebackers and Defensive Backs are banged up and that should give the Kansas City Chiefs a chance when it comes to the passing game.
This has been inconsistent all season- Patrick Mahomes is still playing at a high level, but his Receivers are young or erratic and it has meant the Chiefs have not been nearly as explosive as previous years. However, the injuries in the Secondary means the Bills may struggle to cover as effectively as usual and even this Receiving corps available to Mahomes could have a strong outing.
Establishing the run first would be ideal and the Chiefs have been very good on the ground down the stretch, even if Head Coach Andy Reid does not stick with the game plan as he perhaps should. Despite some improvements, injury has again lessened the impact the Bills have had in clamping down on the run and so Patrick Mahomes should be able to throw out of third and manageable spots on the field.
Patrick Mahomes has been well protected by the Offensive Line down the stretch too and that should mean the Quarter Back has the time for this Receivers to beat some of the backups that will be operating in the Buffalo Secondary.
Those injuries will have increased the pressure on Josh Allen and the Offensive unit, which will be without big game Gabe Davis for another outing.
There is no doubt that the Josh Allen legs will be as important as his arm in this one as the Bills look to get something going on the ground. After a strong run of games from James Cook, the run game has just bogged down in recent outings and they are now playing against a Chiefs team that have really focused on trying to clamp down on the run.
This still remains the best way to begin to attack Kansas City and the dual-threat of Josh Allen should make it 'easier' for the Bills to try and get things moving on the ground. Being able to do so means the play-action can be employed, while also slowing down the Kansas City pass rush, which has been a huge importance to the Chiefs winning the AFC West again.
A young Kansas City Secondary has continued to play really well and losing the game-stretching threat of Gabe Davis should allow the Chiefs to play with a bit more aggression at the line of scrimmage. Stefon Diggs has not been used as well as he has in the past, but he will still be a focal point of the Defensive Backs and the Kansas City Defensive unit have to believe they can do enough to get the better of the Bills Receivers.
Buffalo will still make some plays, but it does feel like those injuries in the Defensive unit will give the Kansas City Chiefs every chance of earning the upset. They have a Defensive unit of their own which has played as well as any out there, while Patrick Mahomes will point out that his team lost the regular season game to Buffalo after a controversial refereeing call.
The Chiefs are 9-3-1 against the spread when set as the underdog since 2018 and the feeling is that they will be hugely motivated by being the underdog in this PlayOff game, especially as they are still the defending Super Bowl Champions.
For all of their qualities, the Bills are only a middle of the road team when it comes to covering as the home favourite over the last couple of years. They are also just 3-3 against the spread as the home favourite in the post-season and the play has to be taking the points with the expectation being that the Chiefs can make enough plays against a banged up Secondary to keep this one close.
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)
Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)
Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
2023 Season: 75-56-4, + 14.45 Units
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