Make no mistake, it is getting absolutely boring to start every day wondering whether the luck will ever change.
It says plenty that Tommy Paul would get to Match Points (x 2) to win the match in the fourth set and give the page a winning selection, but instead he misses out and another loser has to be placed on the record.
A lot of the British media will want to praise Cameron Norrie, but Casper Ruud has to be feeling absolutely sick that he was beaten in that match. After coming through a second set Tie-Breaker, having already dominated the Break Points that were created in splitting the first two sets, Casper Ruud took a break lead in the third set.
I wish I could say it was a surprise, but Ruud, who had faced just a single Break Point in the previous two and a half sets then decided it was time to start throwing away serve like it was going out of fashion.
One thing is getting things wrong, but another all together when momentum is lost within matches in the most unbelievable way.
If you're dominating on serve and have all of the momentum, it is hard to know how the match swings so wildly again, but that has been a feature of this tournament. How many times can I write about matches that looked to be moving exactly in the direction predicted, but then being blown wildly off course without any real idea as to why that has happened?
Players suddenly being unable to break, or throwing away serve having barely been threatened is impossible to predict, and it continues to be the absolute pits of a tournament as far as predictions go.
One remarkable factor I've noted is the amount of players I've picked who have lost the first Break and then gone on to lose the First Set. Even Hubert Hurkacz has to come from a set behind to win his match in four sets and you do have to wonder whether it is going to change.
You might think adjustments are needed if Picks have been wildly off the mark, but the reality is this tournament would have had a massively different look if not for the outrageous lack of luck that has been with those selections. You always need luck, no matter how much you can analyse a pick, but that has been missing by a wide margin and led to the worst Grand Slam result on these pages by a considerable distance.
Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Karen Khachanov: Memories of the way he wilted against this opponent at the US Open in September 2020 will not likely have faded, but Jannik Sinner is a considerably better player in January 2024.
He was the World Number 74 and Jannik Sinner had led Karen Khachanov 2-0 in sets, but won just two games in the next two sets before losing a final set Tie-Breaker. And Jannik Sinner will point out that he did beat Khachanov twice on the hard courts in 2021 to prove he has what it takes to win a big Fourth Round match at the Australian Open.
While Jannik Sinner has breezed through the first three Rounds without breaking much of a sweat, it has been harder work for Karen Khachanov. The World Number 15 has needed four sets in each of his three wins, but he is a former Semi Finalist at the US Open and Karen Khachanov reached the last four in Melbourne twelve months ago before losing in four competitive sets against Stefanos Tsitsipas.
The serve is clearly a big weapon for Karen Khachanov and he is aggressive enough on the return to believe he can give any opponent difficulty. He took several months off after losing to Novak Djokovic in the French Open Quarter Final, and Khachanov returned at the US Open before embarking on some decent runs in hard court events played in the back end of 2023.
Karen Khachanov will feel the pressure is on Jannik Sinner, but he has found it tough to play top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. It also should be noted that Khachanov faced 17 Break Points compared with creating just 5 in his Third Round match and that level needs to be improved significantly when facing someone of the quality of Jannik Sinner.
The Italian has not had the consistent impact at the Grand Slam level that his talent should have done, but he should be fresh mentally and physically after coasting through the first three Rounds. It may have left Jannik Sinner a little undercooked with the level of opponent picking up significantly, but there is no doubting the qualities of a player that has a 19-6 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over a twelve month period.
Unsurprisingly the service numbers do decline against the best players on the Tour, but Sinner is still holding 85% of games played, which is superior to Karen Khachanov's 83% mark. The biggest difference is on the return with Jannik Sinner breaking in 23% of return games against top 20 Ranked opponents compared with 11% for his opponent.
In their two most recent matches, Jannik Sinner had a slight edge on the returning numbers, but that gap should have widened now. He can beat the 2023 Semi Finalist and he can cover this wide mark, even if the Italian needs four sets to move through to a second Quarter Final in Melbourne.
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 games v Alex De Minaur: We have not had a men's Australian Finalist at their home Grand Slam since Lleyton Hewitt finished Runner Up in 2005 and there has not been a home male winner since 1976. That means home representatives tend to play with a huge amount of expectation on their shoulders and it is Alex De Minaur who has to hold them all as the sole Aussie left in the men's draw.
The home crowd will definitely give him a lift and Alex De Minaur has started 2024 in strong form, which will have raised expectations. He has had little trouble moving through the first three Rounds, and he has reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open for the third year in a row.
Jannik Sinner ended the run in 2022 and Novak Djokovic did that in 2023 as Alex De Minaur chases his first Quarter Final run in Melbourne. He did reach the Quarter Final at the US Open in September 2020, but De Minaur has failed to do that again and now faces an opponent who has regularly made the last eight at Grand Slams.
Controlling emotion is going to be key for Andrey Rublev, especially in what is expected to be an intense, electric atmosphere. He has to be aware that the fans are going to be very much against him, but Rublev has won seven sets in a row in the tournament, while he has won all seven matches played in 2024.
Andrey Rublev will be chasing a spot in the Australian Open Quarter Final for the third time in four years, while also looking to reach the last eight of a Grand Slam for the sixth time in seven outings. Consistency has kept him amongst the elite of the ATP Tour, although another significant test is likely to await as Rublev looks to reach a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time.
Overlooking Alex De Minaur would be a mistake, but it is also unlikely.
The Australian has a winning record against Andrey Rublev, including being 3-1 on the hard courts against him. Two of those wins were back in 2018, but Alex De Minaur beat Andrey Rublev with minimum fuss on an indoor court in Rotterdam back in February 2023.
However, Andrey Rublev is likely to have picked up a lot of confidence from coming from a set down to beat De Minaur at the Paris Masters at the back end of 2023. It was an impressive win and one that may give Andrey Rublev a slight edge, mentally, in this big Fourth Round match.
The numbers are similar to open 2024 with both players serving really well and backing that up on the return of serve. Alex De Minaur has perhaps been the more composed when the Break Points have come up, while he has also had better successes when facing top 10 Ranked opponents compared with his opponent.
Andrey Rublev is just 1-7 against top 10 Ranked players on the hard courts, but it does feel like there is an inferiority complex when he has faced the likes of Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev. The numbers remain incredibly strong when facing players Ranked below him and that may give Andrey Rublev a narrow edge in this good looking Fourth Round clash.
You have to respect the fact that Alex De Minaur does tend to play up to the level of opponent and he has a 9-6 record on the hard courts over the last twelve months when facing a player Ranked higher than himself. However, the numbers do decline significantly and Andrey Rublev may do enough to come through in four or perhaps even five competitive sets.
Taylor Fritz v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Reaching back to back Quarter Finals at Grand Slam events for the first time may give Taylor Fritz plenty of confidence to take into the rest of the calendar year. This may not sound like the biggest achievement for someone who has long led the way for American men's tennis, but Taylor Fritz has struggled to put it together in the best of five set format.
The Australian Open has been a case of what might have been- Taylor Fritz lost to eventual winner Novak Djokovic in 2021 in the Third Round, but was the stronger player in the five set defeat. A year later he was beaten in the Fifth Set by Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round and it is the Greek player who stands in his way again.
It has been a decent tournament for Stefanos Tsitsipas who has tended to play his best tennis in the first half of the season. He has reached eight Quarter Finals and all of those have been either at the Australian Open or French Open, while Tsitsipas has only made the second week twice in all of his appearances at Wimbledon and the US Open combined.
Stefanos Tsitsipas will always get a lot of support in Melbourne from the local Greek community and he has used that to fuel him to three Semi Finals and one Final at the Australian Open. Twelve months he came up short against Novak Djokovic, like many others, and the three wins on the board in the tournament will have given him plenty of confidence.
He was perhaps a little fortunate to see off Jordan Thompson, but the other two wins have been largely stress-free and the experiences of winning big matches in Melbourne may give him the edge over Taylor Fritz. The fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas has won three of the four previous matches against Fritz, including one here, will increase his belief and he has yet to be beaten on a hard court by this opponent.
Of course Taylor Fritz should believe in his own ability having really been the better player in the five set loss to Tsitsipas here, while he beat this opponent on his favoured clay courts in Monte Carlo last year. The two losses were very early in the career and the American has dominated his last two opponents in the draw after a tough opener when Taylor Fritz needed to go the distance.
Playing against top 10 Ranked opponents on the surface has been difficult for Taylor Fritz over the last year, but this is a decent enough match up for him.
Much depends on serving well and putting Stefanos Tsitsipas under pressure as Jordan Thompson did in the Second Round and we have seen enough from Taylor Fritz to believe he can do that. That was key to pushing Tsitsipas all the way in their previous Australian Open match, although winning will mean Taylor Fritz has been stronger when the Break Points come his way.
He was wasteful in the Third Round win and cannot afford to do that against the stronger players on the Tour.
Taylor Fritz has had the edge when it comes to the return numbers on the hard courts, but this should be another tight, competitive match between the two players.
The chances should largely fall in favour of Taylor Fritz and he may have a bit too much for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has only just returned after injury. Jordan Thompson showed the blueprint for a big server to beat Tsitsipas, but Taylor Fritz has a bit more quality in his all around tennis compared with the Australian and that can see the lower Ranked player move into the last eight.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 1.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Taylor Fritz @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Mirra Andreeva - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 14-38, - 52.12 Units (104 Units Staked, - 50.12% Yield)
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