There have been some remarkable results throughout the fortnight at the Australian Open, but plenty of really good tennis too.
On Day 11 we were treated to a couple of top class men's Quarter Final matches, while also seeing a women's Semi Final line up completed which would have had been predicted by very few people before the tournament began.
No one will doubt the run Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka have had and the winner of that Semi Final is expected to be a strong favourite in the Final.
But how many would have had Qinwen Zheng and Dayana Yastremska coming out of the top half as the other Finalist? At least Zheng reached the US Open Quarter Final and has long been talked about as having massive potential, but Dayana Yastremska's run has really come as a surprise.
She is a former World Number 21, but Yastremska was forced to come through the Qualifiers this year- she had not been past the First Round of a Grand Slam since returning from the ban she had been given after an adverse drugs test. It is a Semi Final that could be nervy for both players and may really come down to which of the two are serving better on the day, although the winner will be an underdog on Saturday in the Final.
Both women's Semi Finals are set to be played on Day 12 at the Australian Open as the tournament winds down and you can read my Picks below.
Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka over 21.5 games: It almost feels like the women's draw should have been re-Seeded considering the amount of upsets we have seen throughout the Australian Open. And so while the top half of the draw is going to give us a first time Grand Slam Finalist, the bottom half has put together a Semi Final between the two players who won their maiden major in 2023.
The Australian Open crown is being defended by Aryna Sabalenka, but Coco Gauff won the US Open by coming from behind to beat the World Number 2 in the Final.
It is perhaps a mental edge the American can take into this Semi Final having struggled in her Quarter Final win over Marta Kostyuk. Prior to that Coco Gauff had been in imperious form on the hard courts, but there were some nerves and the power of her opponent certainly gave Gauff plenty to think about.
Now she has to take on arguably the most powerful player on the WTA Tour and one who has been dominating all that have stood in front of her in Melbourne. There has been little drama for Aryna Sabalenka, but most will feel that there is a massive obstacle for her to overcome if she is going to win a second Grand Slam title at the Australian Open.
In a warm up event to the tournament, Aryna Sabalenka crushed all opponents before running into Elena Rybakina in the Final and winning just three games. There is no doubting the quality of her front-running, but Sabalenka has yet to show she can handle someone coming at her and Coco Gauff has a history of doing that in their head to head match ups.
Coco Gauff has the head to head advantage on the hard courts with a 3-2 lead over Aryna Sabalenka, but nothing has come easy and four of the previous five matches between these two on this surface have needed a deciding set.
The 'easiest' win came for Sabalenka in Indian Wells in March 2023, but the rest of the matches have been massively competitive and the numbers have backed that up.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, Aryna Sabalenka has tended to have more Break Points than Coco Gauff, but the latter has tended to play those big moments a little more efficiently. That has given her the chance to have the lead in the head to head on the hard courts and it is going to be a huge part of this match.
Aryna Sabalenka's level in this tournament has been historically strong and she is certainly capable of blowing past Coco Gauff as she did in Indian Wells. However, the feeling is that Gauff will grow having come through a tough test in the Quarter Final and showed her Champions mentality, while we have yet to see Aryna Sabalenka need to overcome difficult moments.
There is likely to be a number of close games in the match and both players are Grand Slam Champions now- there will be some nerves knowing the winner is going to be a big favourite in the Women's Final on Saturday and that may mean some twists and turns in a match up that has produced them regularly in the past.
Three sets were needed in the US Open Final and this is another match between these two Slam Champions that could need a deciding set.
Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 games v Qinwen Zheng: The top four names on the WTA Tour have been in and around the business end of the Grand Slam tournaments over the last twelve months, but the women's draws continue to throw up new names making strong runs.
The 2024 Australian Open has proven to be no different and the top half of the draw has really seen a surprising Semi Final match up being set.
Both Dayana Yastremska and Qinwen Zheng were able to win their Quarter Final matches on Day 11 of the tournament and that has meant not having a day of rest to appreciate what they have done. Facing one another will certainly build some tension as both players will look at this Semi Final as a very winnable one, while nerves ahead of the biggest match of their careers is going to be understandable.
It is slightly problematic that Qinwen Zheng played in the second Quarter Final and that she had an hour extra on the court, but it was not such an intense match that she can use that as an excuse if Zheng is unable to make the Final. There has been plenty of positive talk around this player over the last eighteen months to believe Qinwen Zheng had the qualities to win a Grand Slam title, but it has perhaps come a little quicker than anticipated.
That won't matter and it does feel like Zheng is building momentum.
After three less than ideal performances, Qinwen Zheng has certainly picked up her level in her last two wins in the tournament, which will give her confidence. At the same time you cannot argue that the draw was anything but kind to the soon to be top 10 Ranked player and Zheng has not had to beat anyone Ranked higher than Number 54.
Coming into the tournament, Dayana Yastremska was struggling down at World Number 93 and had to come through the Qualifiers, but she will be back inside the top 30 at the end of the Australian Open. The Ukrainian is certainly playing much higher than the current Ranking number next to her name and Yastremska is likely taking inspiration from Emma Raducanu who won the US Open as a Qualifier in 2021.
That run truly came out of left field, but Dayana Yastremska is a former World Number 21 and is hitting the ball very big at the moment. The fact is all of her wins in the main draw at the Australian Open have been against top 50 Ranked opponents and so her numbers look pretty impressive with that in mind.
Both of these girls have served very well and that has allowed them to dictate the tempo of their matches.
Out of the two, Qinwen Zheng has been getting a bit more out of the first serve and is a big ace hitter, but she is also only getting 53% of her first serves in play. Allowing Dayana Yastremska to see a lot of second serves will be a problem considering the Ukrainian has been winning more points on the return compared with Zheng, while she has also had a bit more protection of the second serve.
Nerves are the big 'x factor' that really cannot be determined, but Qinwen Zheng did reach the US Open Quarter Final in September and that may help her.
However, Dayana Yastremska has played with a real freedom and having a bit more time to prepare for the match could be the key to keeping this one close and competitive. It has been a long tournament for the Qualifier and conditions will be different in the evening compared with the Quarter Final being played in the day, but Yastremska looks more tested and that may be the big advantage she has over Qinwen Zheng, who is facing a significantly tougher test than at any other time in Melbourne this week.
MY PICKS: Coco Gauff-Aryna Sabalenka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dayana Yastremska + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 21-46, - 55.20 Units (134 Units Staked, - 41.19% Yield)
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