Three of the top four Ranked players on the ATP Tour have managed to come through all of the upsets and drama at the Australian Open to take their place in the Semi Final.
It would be a huge disappointment if the two men's Semi Finals are not filled with excitement for the fans and we are likely to see these matches a number of times across the biggest events in 2024. Winning the opening Grand Slam is the obvious big motivation for all four players, but it also stands that the Champion will have laid down a serious marker to the main rivals on the Tour.
The winner of the first Semi Final is expected to go into the Sunday showcase match as the big favourite.
However, the second Semi Final is filled with headlines made from off-court issues between the players and it should make for a very good day at Melbourne Park.
Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Jannik Sinner: There is a real hope that Jannik Sinner will be able to breakthrough and win a maiden Grand Slam title this season to join Carlos Alcaraz in bringing the future of tennis into the present. For fans of the sport, it would be good to begin to see a real changing of the guard, and Jannik Sinner can really prove himself if he can get the better of Novak Djokovic on Rod Laver Arena, a court the World Number 1 has dominated.
The win over Andrey Rublev was tougher than the final scoreboard will indicate and Jannik Sinner knows he will need to be better when playing in his first Australian Open Semi Final. He will have to lean on the previous experience of facing Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final back in July, while the Italian did manage to beat the World Number 1 twice on the hard courts at the back end of the 2023 season.
They split a win apiece in the ATP World Tour Finals, although it was Novak Djokovic who won the match for the trophy, and Jannik Sinner was then able to beat Djokovic in the Davis Cup Finals. These wins will give him plenty of confidence to take into this Semi Final, although Novak Djokovic may point out that he was the stronger player in all three matches and just finished on the wrong end of the tight matgins.
Novak Djokovic was able to contain the threat Taylor Fritz brought onto the court in the Quarter Final and rallied after dropping the second set to move through in four sets. His numbers were strong in the match, while playing in the heat also made it tough for Djokovic having largely been contained to the Night Session throughout the tournament.
He should be back in that slot for this Semi Final, while Novak Djokovic will benefit from having an additional day of rest between the Quarter Final and this match. Of course Jannik Sinner benefits from the same, but you have to believe this is better for the older player and Djokovic can bring his best onto the court.
Losses in the ATP World Tour Finals and Davis Cup Final would have hurt, but Novak Djokovic has long spoken about peaking for the Grand Slam events as he looks to surpass Margaret Court's 24 Grand Slam wins in her home country. We have seen him peaking in this tournament with the much improved numbers and performances in the last three matches having done just enough to win the first two at the Australian Open.
At the same time, Jannik Sinner's numbers have declined in each of his last three matches from a high reached in his Second Round win. That suggests the level of competition has increased and the Italian is perhaps not being allowed to dominate as he has earlier in the event and now he faces the ultimate challenge at the Australian Open.
He has yet to drop a set, and the serve has been very strong for the World Number 4.
Imposing that serve on Novak Djokovic will be a key to the outcome of this match and Jannik Sinner will be encouraged by the fact he held 86% of his service games played against this opponent in their three hard court matches played at the end of the 2023 season. However, it was Djokovic's performances on the Break Points that stands out in those matches and Jannik Sinner showed he can play under the pressure of having to same those big points in his win over Andrey Rublev too.
He will need to do that again in this one and it is hard to ignore the fact that Novak Djokovic won 73% of the points played behind serve compared with Jannik Sinner's 63% mark in those hard court matches.
On Rod Laver Arena, Novak Djokovic may feel a little more confident in playing those big points better than he did at the end of 2023 and the feeling is that the World Number 1 is getting stronger as the tournament winds down. At the same time Jannik Sinner may just be weakening a little bit and the feeling is that Novak Djokovic will be able to come through in three or four sets.
Alexander Zverev v Daniil Medvedev: It will feel like a case of what might have been for Alexander Zverev- he was giving Rafael Nadal all he could handle in the French Open Semi Final and was a couple of solid tournament runs away from becoming World Number 1 for the first time when injury cruelly struck in June 2022.
That injury cost him the rest of the season and it has taken plenty of hard work over the last twelve months to have Zverev feeling like he is back at a level he belongs.
For two and a half sets, Alexander Zverev showed all of his very best tennis as he dominated Carlos Alcaraz and moved to within a game of the Australian Open Semi Final. He was not quite able to maintain the standards and ended up dropping the third set, but the German rallied in the fourth and moved into his second ever Australian Open Semi Final.
The first ended in a four set loss to Dominic Thiem, who would go on and beat Zverev later in the year in the US Open Final too, but it really does feel like Alexander Zverev is finding his best tennis right now. This tournament is laying a strong foundation for the rest of the 2024 season, but Alexander Zverev will not want it to end just yet.
Anyone who has watched 'Break Point' on Netflix will know there is little love lost between Alexander Zverev and Semi Final opponent Daniil Medvedev as they prepare to meet on Friday.
That rivalry made for good watching for the viewers, but it has not been much of one on the court over the last few years and that is something that Alexander Zverev will be keen to change.
He won the first four professional matches between the players, but Daniil Medvedev was Ranked at Number 50 or higher in those matches, while Zverev was a top 10 Ranked player for the majority of those and expected to win. Since then, it is Medvedev who has become a fixture in the top 10 of the World Rankings and he has won eleven of fourteen matches between the pair.
That includes winning five of six matches played between the two last year and so Daniil Medvedev has to believe he has the tennis to earn yet another Australian Open Final spot.
It is certainly a head to head that will give Daniil Medvedev plenty of reason to think he can win this Semi Final and it is perhaps the main reason the World Number 3 has been set as the favourite in the match.
On the raw numbers, Daniil Medvedev has had a difficult Australian Open tournament and there is no doubting that there has been a lingering affect of having finished in the early hours of the morning when winning his Second Round match against Emil Ruusuvuori. He showed plenty of fatigue in the five set Quarter Final win over Hubert Hurkacz, but there is no doubting the fight and tenacity that Daniil Medvedev will bring onto the court for as long as he is out there.
Ultimately it is about the recovery and how well he is able to do that- not only did Medvedev have to play for over four hours in the Quarter Final, but he played in the hottest part of the day and the energy was clearly being sapped from him. The fact he rallied from dropping the fourth set to win a decider just underlines the quality and the mental strength Daniil Medvedev has and he will need all of that in this Semi Final.
The problem Daniil Medvedev has had in the tournament is that he is only holding 82% of service games played- that is considerably down on his 86% mark set over the 2023 calendar year, while the return is then placed under considerable pressure. In the Quarter Final, Medvedev had to deal with a lot more Break Points than he created and it is unsustainable to continue to replenish energy being lost physically and emotionally.
He played the big points well enough to edge past Hubert Hurkacz and it was the same against Emil Ruusuvuori, but it will have accumulated some fatigue.
Alexander Zverev has had anything but a clean run himself though and so the fatigue problem may not be as great for Daniil Medvedev as it would be if he was playing Novak Djokovic or Jannik Sinner instead. And while he is not returning as well as his rival, the performance in the Quarter Final behind serve will have really encouraged Zverev and his supporters that he can turn the tables on the World Number 3.
And despite the head to head in 2023, it should be noted that the four hard court matches were closely contested with Daniil Medvedev edging the big points. Those were all across best of three set formats too and the feeling is that the Russian is perhaps running close to empty and Alexander Zverev will have the fitness edge if this goes long.
Reaching a second Grand Slam Final will add to the pressure on Zverev, but his performance in the Quarter Final compared with Daniil Medvedev's suggests it is the German getting stronger the Australian Open winds down.
This has the makings of being a really good Semi Final after the efforts both have put into the tournament, but Alexander Zverev's serve has been working well enough in Melbourne to believe he will be lining up in the Men's Final on Sunday.
Backing against Daniil Medvedev is not easy considering his hard court abilities and the motivation he will have in wanting to keep Alexander Zverev under the cosh, but you cannot ignore the obvious fatigue build up we have seen. As long as Zverev can contain his emotions against this rival, he may have enough to come through after another long match.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 22-47, - 55.54 Units (138 Units Staked, - 40.25% Yield)
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