One from each Conference will be resting this week and watching the others fight it out for a place in the Divisional Round- the two Number 1 Seeds look most likely to meet in Las Vegas next month in the Super Bowl, but there are one or teams in the PlayOffs who will be looking to upset those plans.
Injuries and a loss of form at a bad time means there are a couple of outsiders who are not going to be heavily backed at this point of the season, but you have to play the games on the field and every team that still has a chance of making the Super Bowl will be looking for some momentum to take them through.
The Super Wild Card Round is now going to be played from Saturday through to Monday- money talks so the Monday Night Football PlayOff game is going nowhere.
A worry was that the winning team in that slot would struggle in the short week entering the Divisional Round, but the early sample of games has those teams at 1-1 the following weekend. This time it is the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meeting in the final game of the Super Wild Card Weekend and that could mean a trip to the Number 1 Seed in the Divisional Round for the winner if the other Seeds hold up.
However, it feels unlikely that all the higher Seeds will go through on Saturday/Sunday with some good looking games being given tight lines by the oddsmakers down in Vegas.
I'll have my Picks below, but before that you can see how I rate the fourteen teams left:
1) Baltimore Ravens- they have beaten the 49ers and the Ravens look like a team capable of winning it all this season with a strong, balanced approach both Offensively and Defensively.
2) San Francisco 49ers- they were beaten in the 2019 Super Bowl and have suffered NFC Championship Game defeats in the last two years, both times on the road. This time San Francisco have home field throughout the PlayOffs until the big game, and the team looks capable of producing a first Super Bowl win in almost thirty years.
3) Buffalo Bills- momentum is important and the Bills have plenty of experience. Winning the AFC East means they will get an opportunity to host at least two home PlayOff games if they can progress in the post-season and Buffalo might just be ready to win a Super Bowl for the first time.
4) Dallas Cowboys- NFC East winners and a team that may finally live up to those from the past.
5) Kansas City Chiefs- they may be the defending Champions, but Patrick Mahomes may have to show off how good he can be on the road if the Chiefs are to return to the Super Bowl. If the Defensive unit cannot keep them in games, Mahomes and company have to finally find the rhythm that has been missing for much of the season.
6) Cleveland Browns- Joe Flacco has gotten hot in January before to lead his team to a Super Bowl win and the Browns have the kind of Defensive unit that will keep them in games.
7) Los Angeles Rams- are there many hotter teams than the Los Angeles Rams going into the post-season? Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Sean McVay have Super Bowl winning experience to guide younger players through the post-season.
8) Detroit Lions- it has been a strong season for Dan Campbell and his team, but they have a tough start to the post-season and the top two Seeds in the NFC also look a little stronger than the Lions, especially with home advantage.
9) Miami Dolphins- injuries to the Defensive unit will only increase pressure on the banged up Offensive unit. Losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 means road PlayOff Football and Miami have continued to fall short against the best teams in the NFL.
10) Philadelphia Eagles- another team that has picked up some injuries as the season has worn down. The Eagles came up slightly short last season, but they are in miserable form and have a much tougher road towards the PlayOffs than twelve months ago, while some reports suggest there is a breakdown between the players and Coaching Staff.
11) Green Bay Packers- they have perhaps gotten here a year too early with a very young roster. Jordan Love has shown some of the highs he can reach, but inexperience may hold back the team this year.
12) Houston Texans- another team that has overachieved to win the AFC South, but one that will benefit massively from PlayOff experience. CJ Stroud looks a star in the making.
13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- there is still plenty of experience in the locker room, but the Buccaneers are perhaps one of the more fortunate of the teams to make the post-season.
14) Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Tomlin has to be given credit for finding a way to drag Pittsburgh to the PlayOffs, but an injury to TJ Watt comes at a very bad time. Rumour suggests Tomlin is ready to step away as Head Coach, while the Offensive unit is still being led by a third string Quarter Back.
These Rankings do not necessarily mean much in terms of how the PlayOffs will shake up, but it would be a huge surprise if any of the bottom seven were able to win the Super Bowl.
Injuries can play a major factor- ask San Francisco after the way the NFC Championship Game was lost twelve months ago. Teams can also step up to earn an upset or two behind hot Quarter Backs, but right now it would be the top two in these Rankings that are expected to compete for the Super Bowl.
Buffalo and Dallas will have something to say as good looking Number 2 Seeds, but Football is played on the field and not paper and so we should have an exciting time finding out when the post-season begins on Saturday afternoon.
Week 18 proved to be as difficult for the NFL Picks as was a concern prior to a game being played, but it has been a solid regular season for the Picks.
Backing that up in the PlayOffs is key, beginning with Super Wild Card Weekend, and the selections can be read below.
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans Pick: A new Head Coach and a Quarter Back selected to be a franchise changer would likely have meant relatively low expectations of the Houston Texans in 2023. Instead, CJ Stroud has proven how good he can be, while DeMeco Ryans has guided the Texans to a surprising AFC South Division Title and the chance to host the first of the Super Wild Card Weekend PlayOff games.
It is a rematch of a Week 16 meeting with the Cleveland Browns, who finished with the top Wild Card Seed in the AFC, but this time Stroud will be suiting up for the Houston Texans. That has not prevented the Browns from being set as the road favourites, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will certainly believe their Week 18 win at the Indianapolis Colts has given them some momentum in what was effectively the first 'PlayOff' game the Texans will have faced this season.
While they battled for a place in the post-season, the Cleveland Browns were able to rest their starters for the final regular season game against the Cincinnati Bengals.
The key question for the Browns is whether that has snapped any rhythm, but they have overcome plenty of issues already this season to earn their spot in the PlayOffs. Losing both Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and Nick Chubb at Running Back were massive blows for the Browns, but it is veteran Joe Flacco who came in off the street to really give Cleveland the kind of boost that has set them as favourites to reach the Divisional Round.
It may mean a road game at the Baltimore Ravens, the Number 1 Seed and the team that Joe Flacco led to a Super Bowl Championship, although the veteran is well aware of the dangers of overlooking any team when you get into the PlayOffs. He has made it clear to the Cleveland roster that they have to remember it is 'win or go home' time in the NFL and the Browns are going to need Joe Flacco at his very best if they are going to have a deep run.
You don't want to read too much into the Week 16 win secured by Cleveland, especially with Houston in better shape on both sides of the ball, but the Browns did blow out the Texans. That will give Joe Flacco confidence with the Browns very leaning on the veteran Quarter Back as injuries to the Offensive Line and top Running Back has just hurt the output of the ground attack.
Despite the blowout loss in Week 16, the Texans Defensive Line continued to shine by holding the Cleveland Browns to 1.8 yards per carry. They have been stout all season and it is unlikely that Kareem Hunt or Jerome Ford are going to be major factors as runners, although both will be targeted by Joe Flacco when he steps back to throw.
It has been Joe Flacco's ability to target David Njoku and Amari Cooper that has given the Cleveland Browns life, and the veteran will be the key again. The Houston Secondary have struggled at times, but Will Anderson Jr is back and will certainly help spark the pass rush pressure when Flacco drops back to target his Receivers down the field.
That pressure could lead to more Interceptions (Flacco had two in the win over Houston) and there is certainly a feeling that the Texans will force the experienced Quarter Back into one or two mistakes here. The Browns should still have some success throwing the ball against this Secondary, but they will need a big game from the Defensive unit if they are going to secure a place in the Divisional Round.
Key performers like Anderson Jr will be back Defensively, while Houston will also have CJ Stroud at Quarter Back rather than Case Keenum and/or Davis Mills. Those two struggled against a very strong Cleveland Defensive unit, but that Week 16 game was played at the home of the Browns and there is no doubting that this Defense has been strong, but less effective on the road.
One of the major problems for the Browns has been the Defensive Line and being able to contain the run- the Texans picked up 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season meeting and that was without CJ Stroud, who will be given a lot more respect for his abilities at Quarter Back than his backups would have been.
With the team still struggling to control the line of scrimmage, Houston will certainly be looking at Devin Singletary to establish the run for the home underdog. This could be massive for the entire team with CJ Stroud not needing as much time to make his throws down the field behind an Offensive Line that has not been as strong when it comes to pass protection as it does to run blocking.
Injuries in the Receiving corps is a big problem for Houston, but it will certainly help if they are playing in third and manageable spots. CJ Stroud has shown he can find Nico Collins, although it will an issue to find consistency when throwing the ball without some of the other players that had stepped up for the rookie Quarter Back in the regular season.
We are unlikely to see a blowout as was the case in Week 16, but the edge is still with the Cleveland Browns.
Houston have perhaps reached the post-season earlier than expected and rookie Quarter Backs have had their issues in PlayOff starts. First time Quarter Backs in the PlayOffs in general have had a difficult time and the Cleveland Browns will not have put in any big effort in Week 18 like the Texans needed to win the AFC South.
The Texans can keep this close by running the ball effectively, but Joe Flacco and company may just step up with the bigger plays in the passing game. Turnovers could be a problem for the Cleveland Browns considering they are likely to be pretty one-dimensional Offensively, but Flacco has shown he can find the spaces in this Houston Secondary to lead his team to a win.
It is the PlayOffs and nothing is likely to come easy, but the feeling is that Cleveland can just about edge through to the Divisional Round. The Texans have been a solid underdog to back this season as they have overachieved, but the Browns have been a good favourite and they can secure just a second PlayOff win since the formation of the current Cleveland Browns.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The inability to hang onto the lead they entered the Fourth Quarter with has had a huge impact on the Miami Dolphins as they return to the PlayOffs. Instead of a home game and the Number 2 Seed in the AFC, the Dolphins dropped all the way down to the Number 6 Seed and that means having to travel to cold, very cold, Kansas City Chiefs instead.
The Chiefs are well rested having allowed the starters some time off in Week 18 with the AFC West Division secured again. They may not be the favourites to defend their Super Bowl crown, but the Chiefs are loaded with experience and it will take a strong effort to knock off Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.
Losing to the Buffalo Bills will have just raised those questions about the Dolphins and whether they can beat good teams or are just a product of their kind schedule. It seems to be a bit of both, but the defeat in Week 18 came with a number of injuries with the Defensive unit taking a significant hit.
A number of players look like they will be missing for Miami and they have had to pick up a number of veterans who had been sitting on the sofa to try and bolster the team. Xavien Howard is going to be a big miss at Quarter Back, although the Dolphins may look at this game as one they can manage without one of their top Defensive Backs considering Kansas City's Offensive woes through much of the season.
The line of scrimmage will be key for the Dolphins, although they have not been as efficient at shutting down the run on the road as they have been at home. The conditions may mean they will be willing to take more of a risk to attack Isiah Pacheco and stop the Chiefs establishing the run, while it would also allow the new look pass rush to try and rattle Patrick Mahomes.
Any obvious passing down and distance will give the Dolphins a chance to try and rush the Quarter Back and Patrick Mahomes has not really found a chemistry with his Receiving corps this season. The Chiefs will be able to make some plays through the air, but the conditions may make it more difficult and the bigger ambition for Mahomes may be to ensure he does not make mistakes that set up short fields for Miami.
It will mean they can lean on a Defensive unit that have played at a high level and who will feel they can get the better of a Dolphins team that have struggled when facing some of the stronger teams in the NFL. Add in the fact that Raheem Mostert and Jayden Waddle are both banged up, while Tua Tagovailoa is making his first PlayOff start and you have to believe the Chiefs can at least limit what the Dolphins are able to produce Offensively.
The Offensive Line was healthier in Week 18 and may be stronger with another week on the field- this is so important for the Miami Dolphins as the look to establish the run and try and control the outcome of this Super Wild Card game. The Dolphins have been able to run the ball with their misdirecton and motion at the line of scrimmage, but they will have to note that the Kansas City Defensive Line have just stiffened up as the season wound down.
If the Chiefs can control the line of scrimmage, they will feel the Secondary is playing well enough to benefit from the pass rush pressure they are expected to generate around Tua Tagovailoa. That pressure could lead to turnovers, which has been a problem for the Quarter Back against the better teams faced, and this may be Miami's undoing, even in Tyreek Hill's 'revenge' game.
Making mistakes will be fatal to the Miami chances and this is a team that has not enjoyed playing in the extreme cold that has been forecasted for Kansas City.
This would have been a tough PlayOff environment even in perfect conditions, but first time PlayOff starter Tua Tagovailoa may have a very difficult time in the cold, which has been a problem for him in his career.
Miami are also 2-8 in the ten road starts made by this Quarter Back with the Dolphins set as the underdog. They are just 1-5 against PlayOff teams this season, while Tua Tagovailoa is 3-7-1 against the spread when playing away from home against a team with a winning record.
He has also lost all four road starts at night when set as the underdog and the feeling is that the Kansas City Chiefs may do just enough at home to cover this spread. The public look to be favouring the road underdog, but Patrick Mahomes is 12-7 against the spread when that has happened and he can guide the Chiefs to a similar margin of victory as they had over the Dolphins in the regular season.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: After losing to the Philadelphia Eagles at the end of November, it felt like it was a long road back towards the PlayOffs for the Buffalo Bills. The players have admitted that they have felt in post-season mode ever since moving into December and the Bills have won five in a row to not only power into the PlayOffs, but to finish with the Number 2 Seed.
The reward is a home Super Wild Card game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who somehow managed to sneak into the PlayOffs as the Number 7 Seed.
It was three wins in a row that took the Steelers into the PlayOffs and two of those wins have come as the underdog, which is very impressive. Mason Rudolph was the third string Quarter Back, but leapfrogged both Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky and led the three wins over the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens to guide Mike Tomlin's men into the PlayOffs.
Some reports still suggest that Tomlin may leave his post as Head Coach when the Steelers season ends, while the biggest blow to the team is losing TJ Watt to an injury. The leader on the Defensive side of the ball has been key for the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are remarkably 1-10 without him, while going 2-4-1 against the spread since the beginning of 2022 when Watt has been sidelined.
With the cold, windy conditions expected in Buffalo on Sunday, losing Watt will still be a massive blow for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, that loss can be lessened if the Steelers Defensive Line can find a way to contain the run- the Bills struggled to run the ball efficiently in Miami in Week 18, but James Cook and Josh Allen are more than capable of running the ball right at the Pittsburgh Steelers and keeping the team in front of the chains.
Josh Allen has admitted that the gusty conditions may make it tougher to throw the ball, but he should have an 'easier' time if the Bills can run the ball and stay in front of the chains. Not having TJ Watt harassing him when he drops back to throw is also a huge bonus and this Pittsburgh Secondary will struggle to contain Stefon Diggs and the two Tight Ends that will run down the field and find spaces with the time Josh Allen is expected to have.
It should be noted that the Bills have struggled to cover as double digit favourite- Josh Allen has not covered in his last seven in that position, although the last cover was against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The key to that happening in this Super Wild Card game is the Buffalo Defensive unit who have really been playing at a very good level down the stretch to help guide the team into the PlayOffs. They will be facing Mason Rudolph making his first PlayOff start as a Quarter Back, a situation that has proved too much for the majority in the past in that position.
Pittsburgh have to lean on the Offensive Line and the dual Running Backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and see if they can frustrate the Bills and keep Allen and company icing up on the sidelines.
They have been a little inconsistent when it comes to running the ball, while the Buffalo Defensive Line have been a little better as the season has worn on. Much of this one could come down to how much respect the Buffalo Defensive unit have for Mason Rudolph or whether they are going to sell out on stopping Harris and Warren.
If they can control the line of scrimmage, the Buffalo pass rush will really give Mason Rudolph fits and that pressure has led to better Quarter Backs making rash decisions and forced turnovers.
Three Touchdown passes and avoiding Interceptions have been key for Mason Rudolph since being reinstated as the starting Quarter Back, but keeping a clean game may be more difficult in this one. If the game gets out of control, the Steelers will not want to be throwing in these conditions and that may only compound the issues for a Quarter Back making his first post-season start.
Mike Tomlin has a very good record as the Head Coach of an underdog-set Pittsburgh Steelers, but they are just 3-5 against the spread when given at least 8 points. The Steelers have been 7 or more point underdogs twice in the PlayOffs and are 0-1-1 against the spread, including a 21 point loss as a double digit dog at Kansas City two years ago.
This is also the third week in a row that the Steelers are playing on the road and that is a difficult spot for most teams, while an experienced Buffalo team have the momentum to push forward and earn their place in the Divisional Round with a rare cover of a massive spread.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: First time Quarter Backs playing in the post-season have had a very difficult time and the records against the spread back that up.
In Super Wild Card Weekend in January 2024, the first three games will see us opposing those Quarter Backs, but this one looks an opportunity to back Jordan Love as he brings the young Green Bay Packers to Arlington.
Three wins in a row have helped the Packers return to the PlayOffs a year after missing out with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and Jordan Love has had some very strong moments. The Packers are one of the younger rosters in the NFL and so the future looks bright, but it should also be pointed out that they are the Number 7 Seed and that means having to face a very tough road game.
The Number 2 Seeds are the Dallas Cowboys who are looking for a really strong run in the post-season. They have not played in the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season when the Cowboys last won the Super Bowl and there is pressure on Mike McCarthy as Head Coach with Jerry Jones expecting a minimum run of reaching that Championship Game this time around.
It is no surprise to see the Cowboys down as the favourites and they could be facing a Green Bay Secondary without Jaire Alexander who was hurt on Wednesday and missed practice on Thursday. Losing their best Corner Back will be a devastating blow for the Packers as they look to find a way to contain CeeDee Lamb and really would give the Dallas Cowboys an edge.
However, the Packers Defensive Line have been playing well down the stretch as they helped guide Green Bay back into the post-season. This will be encouraging for the Packers, especially as the Dallas Offensive Line have not really dominated at the line of scrimmage as we have come to expect.
Being in a position to place the pressure on Dak Prescott at Quarter Back will feel like a big advantage, even if Alexander is not good to go. While the numbers have been very good this season, Prescott would likely be under pressure from the Packers pass rush and the fact of the matter is that the Quarter Back will know the expectation level of the fans inside the Stadium.
He is just 1-5 against the spread in his six PlayOff starts for the Dallas Cowboys, while the team in general are just 3-12-1 against the spread in their last sixteen PlayOff games. Some of that is down to having to deal with a great sense of expectation, while the layers will know that people are going to be lined up around the corner to back Dallas in a big game.
Dak Prescott does have a good record when favoured by at least 6 points at home, but this game very much depends on how well Jordan Love handles his first start in the post-season.
Much like the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers would love to establish the run and try and ease some pressure on Jordan Love at Quarter Back. Aaron Jones has been back and the Packers have been running the ball well, but they are going to be facing a tough Cowboys Defensive Line who have really been stout against the run down the stretch.
This really feels like a key to the outcome of the game- both teams will feel they can dominate the line of scrimmage and it is also important to make sure Green Bay remain competitive and not be forced into a one-dimensional game plan.
The Offensive Line have been a strong part of Green Bay on this side of the ball and they have also been very good at giving Jordan Love time in the pocket. Keeping the Dallas pass rush away from Love will not be easy, but the Packers will be hoping to be in front of the chains and that should mean there is an opportunity to attack this Secondary.
Interceptions, or avoiding them, will be high on the mind of Jordan Love who could have Christian Watson back in the line up as someone who can stretch the field. The young Receiving corps have stepped up for Love and the Packers may be able to make enough plays on this side of the ball to ensure a competitive game.
Mike McCarthy would love to get one over his former team and the edge has to be with Dallas at home, although covering this spread may be more challenging.
Matt LaFleur is 20-10 against the spread when set as the underdog as the Green Bay Head Coach and he can put together a strong enough game plan to make sure the Packers are competitive in this Super Wild Card Weekend game.
Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions Pick: After spending twelve years with the Detroit Lions, Matthew Stafford was traded to the Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff coming the other way.
It worked out very well for the Rams who won the Super Bowl in Stafford's first season as their starting Quarter Back, but the Lions fans will be very happy with the development of their own team and the abilities that Jared Goff has shown.
The 'NFL Script' has certainly come up big with the Number 3 Seeded Lions hosting the Number 6 Seeded Los Angeles Rams and it is no surprise that this has been given a primetime spot on Sunday evening. Amazingly this is the first time Matthew Stafford will be starting a PlayOff game in this Stadium, despite the number of years he played for the Detroit Lions, and he will be arriving with one of the hotter teams entering the post-season.
A few weeks ago it felt like the Los Angeles Rams were not going to be able to force a return to the PlayOffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl. However, seven wins in eight games with the only exception being a tight defeat to the Baltimore Ravens will have really boosted the belief of the Rams and they are a very live underdog.
There has been a really nice balance in the Offensive approach run by the Rams, although that may not be as evident when they face this Detroit team.
The Lions have a Defensive Line that have proven to be very strong when it comes to clamping down on the run so it may be difficult for Kyren Williams to be able to move the ball on the ground as he has at time during this successful run. You have to assume Sean McVay will find a way to produce something that resembles an effective rushing attack, but Williams may be more of a threat as a pass-catching Back rather than continuing to pound his head against the Lions brick wall.
Pass rush pressure is likely going to be a factor going against Matthew Stafford and the Rams, but the veteran Quarter Back will also recognise the problems Detroit have been having in the Secondary. The Receiving corps is certainly capable of winning their battles on the outside and the Rams should be able to make some big plays in the passing game, while also setting up screens to make sure they are not too far behind the chains.
The line of scrimmage is expected to be key on the other side of the ball as the Lions look to get plenty out of both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In recent games the Lions have been grinding out the yards, but this looks another tough challenge with the Rams Defensive Line improving week after week when it comes to stopping the run.
For all of the successes that Jared Goff has had this season and since joining up with the Detroit Lions, the Los Angeles Rams will believe that they can rattle him into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.
The Rams Secondary have allowed teams to have success throwing the ball against them and the Lions should be able to get the passing game going, especially as the Offensive Line have offered Jared Goff plenty of time. However, there have been some big Interceptions in key games down the stretch and making those mistakes will certainly give the Rams an advantage as far as the outcome goes.
Jared Goff will be a player that Sean McVay knows plenty about, but he has really performed well for Head Coach Dan Campbell.
He has been particularly impressive indoors and Matthew Stafford has a pretty poor record as the underdog- only one of the last six games started by Stafford for the Rams has been with the team set as the underdog, although he did help cover in that one against the Baltimore Ravens.
In general Matthew Stafford has struggled and his team is just 1-9 in the last ten in that position straight up.
Beating their former Quarter Back to head through to the Divisional Round would be a huge plus for the Lions, but teams being set as favourites in their first PlayOff game after missing out the previous years have tended to cover. Momentum is with the Los Angeles Rams and Stafford should be very comfortable in this Stadium, while McVay's familiarity with Jared Goff has to give the Rams another edge.
There should be plenty of points scored, but taking those on offer with the road underdog looks the most appealing angle to play.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Things can change very, very quickly in the NFL and there is a feeling that something has shifted irreversibly with the Philadelphia Eagles.
A few weeks ago they looked on course to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC for a second season in a row and many would have had them down as favourites to reach the Super Bowl and perhaps even manage to finish with the Championship. Instead the team have lost five of their last six games and not only failed to earn the top Seed, but did not defend their NFC East crown and dropped to the Number 5 Seeding.
It likely means needing to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl rather than two home games, while reports suggest Head Coach Nick Sirianni is on the verge of being fired. He has guided the Eagles to the PlayOffs in each of the three seasons in charge, including the Super Bowl run last season that just came up short against the Kansas City Chiefs, but there has been a suggestion that the players are no longer playing for Sirianni and his Coaching staff.
Losing this Super Wild Card Weekend game on Monday in a prime time spot would perhaps be the final blow and Nick Sirianni needs a big performance from his team.
They are facing the NFC South Division Winners after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bounced back from a Week 17 defeat to see off the Carolina Panthers and enter the PlayOffs as the Number 4 Seed. After Tom Brady retired last season, the Buccaneers may have felt this would be something of a transitional season, but Baker Mayfield has played well enough to guide them back into the post-season.
However, Baker Mayfield has been banged up and so there has to be a question about whether he can do enough to expose the obvious issues the Eagles are having Defensively.
The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games so certainly have the momentum to get the better of the defending NFC Champions. They will need Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back though and that is largely down to the fact that Tampa Bay do not match up as well with the Eagles on the Offensive side of the ball.
A healthy Mayfield would have a chance to attack this Secondary, but the Buccaneers Offensive Line have not really found a way to establish a consistent running attack to balance things out for their Quarter Back. Even with a faltering Eagles Defensive Line in front of them, Tampa Bay may have issues getting Rachaad White going on the ground, although the Running Back is someone that can play a part in the passing game.
This will likely mean the pressure is on the Quarter Back to make the big throws to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and try and move the chains through the air. Baker Mayfield has shown he can do that, but he might be under a bit of pressure from the Eagles pass rush, while he will also have to be very aware of the turnovers that Philadelphia's Defensive Backs will be chasing.
He is 2-0 against the spread in previous PlayOff starts and that will offer Tampa Bay encouragement as they look to upset the Eagles. They failed to do that in the regular season when beating as a 5.5 point underdog in this Stadium back in September, but a lot has changed for Philadelphia since then and the spread reflects that.
Jalen Hurts has been banged up, but a big problem for the Quarter Back is that both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could be limited. Being without the top two Receivers would make things very difficult for Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, especially against this Buccaneers Defensive unit which has been a huge part of the run into the post-season.
While the Offensive Line struggles, Tampa Bay's Defensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can contain the Eagles running threat. Of course Jalen Hurts is capable of scrambling for First Downs of his own, although he may not be completely comfortable trying to do that with a banged up body.
The Eagles will do well to keep the Buccaneers pass rush from rattling Jalen Hurts and if the Wide Receivers are not quite right, this has the makings of an upset.
Mistakes made in the passing game have been an issue for Hurts down the stretch and he has to be thinking the same as Baker Mayfield in knowing how important it is to have a clean game.
This may mean less risks being taken, while the lean in the spread is with the Buccaneers having a start.
Instead of that, the selection is backing this game to finish under the total line set and that is largely down to the problems both Offensive units could have in finding consistency. Turnovers could be the major issue with short fields being created likely to result in a relatively high-scoring game, but you have to believe both game plans will be to avoid as much risk as possible knowing how important the turnover battle is expected to be.
Early forecasts suggest it will be wet and potentially windy, which makes the passing game that much harder to execute and both teams may look to pound the rock and control the clock and the tempo of the game. The reports suggesting Philadelphia are exploring potentially firing their Head Coach is not ideal a couple of days before a PlayOff game, and has me leaning with the upset, but the play is going to be back an 'under' in this total line set.
MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Philadelphia Eagles Under 43.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)
Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)
Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)
2023 Season: 70-55-4, + 11.03 Units
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