The first half of Quarter Final matches have been set after Day 8 at the Australian Open and it looks like being a potentially strong end to the tournament.
With the way the women's draw has fallen apart, the potential Semi Final between Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka looks like being a title decider, while also meaning someone with little pre-tournament expectations could make it through to the Final.
The men's draw is really gearing up for a strong end and a couple of good looking Quarter Final matches have been set.
Unlike the women's draw, there are still plenty of top 15 Ranked players still hoping to win the Australian Open and we should be treated to some very good tennis.
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Nuno Borges: For the first time in the history of the Australian Open, a player from Portugal will be playing in the second week of the event.
All credit should be given to Nuno Borges for beating a couple of Seeded players in his three wins in the main draw, although the numbers suggest his win over Grigor Dimitrov was much tougher than the scoreboard would indicate. It is still a strong win for Borges considering the form that Dimitrov has put together this month and it should mean the player goes into this Fourth Round match with real confidence.
This is another step up in class against an opponent who has reached the Australian Open Final twice before and won a Grand Slam title in New York City.
We have seen arguably Daniil Medvedev's best performance in the Third Round win over Felix Auger-Aliassime and he should be much better rested heading into the second week.
Daniil Medvedev will feel there is still room for improvement in his service numbers in Melbourne, but he has been returning really well and that should help him exert some pressure on the lower Ranked opponent. In the last Round Nuno Borges actually faced 12 Break Points and created just 7 Break Points of his own, so Daniil Medvedev will believe he can get enough balls back in play to at least be in a position to break this serve.
This has been a good, strong tournament for Nuno Borges, but we had not seen any of the kind of tennis he is producing ahead of the Australian Open in the warm up events that were played. Both his serving numbers and returning numbers have been vastly better than what we have seen from Borges before the tournament began and it becomes a fair question to wonder how long he can sustain his current level.
Someone like Daniil Medvedev should be able to produce enough quality to really push Nuno Borges and the World Number 3 is quietly looking to peak as this tournament wears on.
Of course this is a big spread for any match taking place in the second week of a Grand Slam, but Nuno Borges has overachieved to get here. It can be dangerous to make an assumption, but a player who had a 4-9 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months before the Australian Open got underway is perhaps going to struggle to sustain his current level of performance.
The numebrs have been pretty average when those matches have been played and Daniil Medvedev can find the breaks of serve to win and cover.
Arthur Cazaux-Hubert Hurkacz over 40.5 games: Winning a title on the Challenger Tour has become a regular occurrence for young Frenchman Arthur Cazaux and he picked up another title in the warm up to the Australian Open. Confidence has been built thanks to the performances on the hard courts over the last twelve months, even if those have been on the Challenger Tour rather than main ATP Tour, and it has helped in taking Cazaux through to the second week at the Australian Open.
Remarkably Arthur Cazaux has been able to keep his level at a very high mark even when playing in the Australian Open with all three wins coming against opponents Ranked inside the top 33.
That makes those numbers really stand out and Arthur Cazaux backed up his upset of Holger Rune by crushing another Seed, Tallon Griekspoor, in the Third Round. He lost just seven games in that victory and Arthur Cazaux has held 94% of his service games played in the tournament so far.
Serving well is going to be key when going up against Hubert Hurkacz, another top 10 Ranked player standing in front of Arthur Cazaux.
Hubert Hurkacz is going under the radar somewhat, but he has looked good in the tournament and beat a Frenchman in the Third Round. Ugo Humbert was supposed to test the World Number 9, but Hubert Hurkacz was the better player and he has also been serving at a very strong level in Melbourne.
Much like his opponent, Hubert Hurkacz has held 93% of service games played and this feels like a match that could go pretty long if Arthur Cazaux continues to perform as he has done. Where Nuno Borges has not had the numbers to back up his wins, the Frenchman has and he will give Hubert Hurkacz something to think about with Tie-Breakers likely to be key to the outcome of the Fourth Round match.
My question would be how Arthur Cazaux is going to react if he loses the first set, something that has not happened to him in the tournament. It is less pressing on Hubert Hurkacz, who came from a set down to win his Third Round match, but you have to believe the Cazaux level continues and that should mean a tight, competitive match that goes at least four sets.
This should be enough to see both players put the serving together to cover this total number of games in the Fourth Round.
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 games v Cameron Norrie: There was a slight lapse in concentration in the middle of the second set, but it was Alexander Zverev's best performance at the Australian Open when moving through in straight sets in the Third Round. He dominated a young opponent, but this is expected to be a much tougher test for Alexander Zverev as he looks to reach the Quarter Final here for the first time since 2021.
A return from a long-term injury was the reason Alexander Zverev was beaten in the Second Round twelve months ago, but he is in a much stronger place in January 2024.
However, he will have to have plenty of respect for Cameron Norrie who is coming off a Grand Slam win which the British player rated right up near the top of the list of his best ever at the majors. He battled back from tough moments of his own to beat Casper Ruud, a former French Open and US Open Finalist, and that will have given the lefty a huge amount of belief in his game.
There were one or two injury concerns for Cameron Norrie ahead of the Australian Open, but he looks to be pretty strong right now. The win over Casper Ruud is clearly the best one either player in this Fourth Round have been able to produce in the Australian Open, while both Cameron Norrie and Alexander Zverev needed to come through in five sets in the Second Round to avoid an upset.
The numbers have been very similar between the players through the first three Rounds, although a narrow advantage has to be given to Cameron Norrie on the return of serve.
Over the last twelve months you would have to note that the returning numbers are quite similar between the players, but Alexander Zverev has had a considerable edge when it comes to the serve. While that has not been evident in the tournament, the longer look at the numbers suggest it may not be sustainable.
Alexander Zverev has also won the last four competitive matches played against Cameron Norrie and he has won all eight sets played in those matches too. All have been on the hard courts, including beat Cameron Norrie in Vienna at the back end of the 2023 season and this should give the German a mental edge to take into this Fourth Round match.
The numbers have been quite staggering in this four match winning run for Alexander Zverev- he has held 97% of his service games played compared with Cameron Norrie's 79% mark and that gives Zverev a clear edge in the match.
Those previous matches are not that relevant when you think the last two have been over a two year period, but Alexander Zverev is also someone who tends to get stronger as the Grand Slam moves into the second week. We saw signs of that in the Third Round, while Cameron Norrie has been playing at a steadier level and perhaps needs to improve much more than his higher Ranked opponent.
It is a wide spread, but Alexander Zverev may get Cameron Norrie thinking about his previous experiences against this opponent and that could see the World Number 6 pull clear by the end of the contest.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)
Arthur Cazaux-Hubert Hurkacz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jasmine Paolini @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 18-39, - 46.18 Units (114 Units Staked, - 40.51% Yield)
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