There has long been a suggestion that the Tours will decide to push the first Grand Slam of the season a little further into the New Year, but the only change at the Australian Open in 2024 is that we have a Sunday start at the tournament.
The 2024 season has only just gotten going and we are about to see the first Grand Slam of the year getting underway.
Novak Djokovic looks like he is once again the player to beat in the Men's tournament in Melbourne having won the title in each of the last four runnings of the Australian Open in which he has been allowed to enter the draw. Last season he made it ten titles at the Australian Open and it is going to take a big effort, or an injury, to knock the World Number 1 off course as he looks to extend his lead in the Grand Slam collection race.
One more Grand Slam title would actually see Novak Djokovic pass Margaret Court to single-handedly hold the most Slam titles won by either a male or female player in history.
The draw looks a kind one for Novak Djokovic, although the biggest threat could be someone like Jannik Sinner who beat the World Number 1 twice in the last couple of weeks of the 2023 season.
Carlos Alcaraz is clearly one of the top names on the Tour and Daniil Medvedev has reached the Final twice before so both will believe they have a real shot at taking home the title out of the bottom half of the draw, but it is very difficult to oppose Novak Djokovic when all is said and done.
There looks to be four clear contenders in the Women's draw here in Melbourne too- a Big Three looked to have pulled clear of the rest last year, but Coco Gauff won the US Open and has fulfilled the potential so many believed she had when breaking through as a 15 year old.
The American, the World Number 1 Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and last year's Champion Aryna Sabalenka are leading the outright market and you would imagine that the winner of the first Grand Slam of the season will come from one of those in that quartet.
It is Elena Rybakina who has perhaps laid down the biggest challenge by winning a title in the warm up tournaments, which included a crushing win over Sabalenka, but all four of those names mentioned will be very confident in their ability to pick up another Grand Slam title.
However, the Women's events can still be a little erratic and Marketa Vondrousova winning Wimbledon last year backs up that assertion. Upsets have been common in the best of three set format and we could see another big priced winner instead of one of the favourites.
Picking someone outside of the top four in the outright market is not easy, and those four mentioned remain the most likely Champion.
The Australian Open has a number of former Grand Slam Champions returning in the Women's draw, including Emma Raducanu and Angelique Kerber.
However, the most exciting returnee could be Naomi Osaka who has won four Grand Slam titles, which means only Venus Williams has won more Slams as an active player on the Tour.
Iga Swiatek has joined Osaka with four Grand Slam titles, but it is potentially seriously exciting to have the Japanese player back playing competitive tennis.
She is still only 26 years old and becoming a mother may just have put her entire career in perspective- Naomi Osaka has struggled in the past with increasing expectations, but now she has someone to play for and that could make her a huge part of the Tour in the years ahead. There are young, new Challengers on the WTA that should get the competitive juices going, although Osaka will know her best tennis will take a little time to come together after spending as much time away as she has.
At least Osaka is in the draw- the excitement around Rafael Nadal's return to the Tour has just stalled after he was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open. He won a couple of warm up matches before picking up an injury, although the good news is that it is unlikely to keep Nadal out of action for too long.
In reality you just know the Spaniard is trying to find his best form and rhythm in time for the French Open in what may be his last year on the Tour and so Rafael Nadal has decided to not take any risks with his body. As a fan, I do hope Rafael Nadal is back in action next month and he can build up his fitness before the European clay court tournaments begin.
A strong finish at the ATP World Tour Finals was a positive way to conclude the 2023 season.
However, it was very much a mixed Grand Slam season and one that can be improved in 2024.
The Australian Open and French Open tournaments ended with winning numbers, but Wimbledon and the US Open were a disappointment. A couple of really rough days at the Masters events hurt the overall numbers, but the finish to the season means there is some momentum to take into the first big tournament of this calendar year.
Day 1 of the Australian Open Tennis Picks are to be played on Sunday as the event starts a day earlier than usual to ease the overall schedule and some of the ridiculous late finishes.
The decision has also been made to only have two matches on the show courts during the Day Session, although there are two matches in the Evening Session on the main courts. These could still lead to late finishes, although the hope is that they will start on time and that should allow them to be completed before getting into the early hours of the morning.
Time will tell as the tournament progresses, but for now you can see the opening First Round selections below.
Jannik Sinner - 7.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschlup: Reaching the Final of the World Tour Finals and helping Italy win the Davis Cup with some big performances wrapped up a very good 2023 for Jannik Sinner.
He reached a career best World Number 4 in October and Jannik Sinner earns his place in the Australian Open draw as one of the main contenders to Novak Djokovic's throne.
However, for all of the positives of 2023, Jannik Sinner will be really disappointed with his efforts at the Australian Open and US Open having failed to reach the Quarter Final of either of those Grand Slams. There is no doubting the qualities of his tennis and how effective Sinner is on the hard courts after a very strong record on the surface last year, but the Italian will be putting some pressure on himself to make sure he at least underlines his Seeding and earn a place in the Semi Final.
There are some tough matches to overcome before that and Jannik Sinner will not want to take anything for granted when facing Botic Van De Zandschlup who was on the brink of cracking the top 20 of the World Rankings in August 2022. It did not quite happen and Van De Zandschlup has slipped down to World Number 59, while he has had a relatively poor start to 2024.
All of that will be forgotten if Botic Van De Zandschlup is able to earn the upset in the First Round in Melbourne.
Over the last twelve months, Botic Van De Zandschlup has a 4-5 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, although two of those wins were against Tommy Paul and another against Karen Khachanov. Despite the record, Van De Zandschlup only won 60% of his service points played and he struggled to have much of an impact on the return.
He will be dangerous and Botic Van De Zandschlup can beat the top names when playing his best tennis, but we have not really seen that consistently over the last eighteen months.
Now he has to face Jannik Sinner who has won twenty-seven or twenty-eight matches played on the hard courts against players Ranked outside the top 20. This is the record put together over the last twelve months and Sinner has held 91% of his service games and broken in 34% of return games in that run.
This is a considerable handicap mark to overcome, but Jannik Sinner can turn the screw once he likely gets a tough first set under his belt. He has the aggression and returning ability to break down Botic Van De Zandschlup game over the course of a couple of hours and Jannik Sinner can put a big statement win on the board as the Italian plays the first match on the Rod Laver Arena in 2024.
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Dino Prizmic: There was some concern that Novak Djokovic had picked up a wrist issue at the United Cup, the main preparation tournament he was playing ahead of the Australian Open. He was beaten in one of the matches played in that event, but Djokovic has been playing in charity events scheduled by the Australian Open and the defending Champion looks good to go.
He is the clear favourite to win the Australian Open again having done so in 2023 and having won ten titles in Melbourne in total. He has actually won the Australian Open in four of the last five years and the only time Novak Djokovic was unable to pick up the title was when he was deported in 2022.
That was a controversial and difficult time, but Novak Djokovic has plenty of mental toughness and that has taken him back to the very top of the men's game and the Serb did win three of four Grand Slams last season.
The First Round has offered Novak Djokovic a battle of generations with an eighteen year old Qualifier first up.
Dino Prizmic deserves a lot of credit for rolling through three Qualifying Rounds having won six sets in a row, although he will know the huge challenge that faces him. Those wins have been against players Ranked at Number 126 or lower and that has taken the Croatian into his first Grand Slam main draw for the first time.
Novak Djokovic likely will know something about his opponent and there is that feeling that he will not want to embarrass Prizmic, but the World Number 1 will not want to be dragged into a tough match. He will know Dino Prizmic won the Junior French Open title last year and those three wins in the Qualifiers will have given the youngster plenty of confidence and belief.
Over the last twelve months, the Croatian has a 2-4 record against top 100 Ranked players on the hard courts, but Dino Prizmic will know that this is going to be a huge learning experience for him.
We have to expect Djokovic to give a serious examination of the serve- this is a weakness for the younger players coming onto the Tour and trying to take on some of the more established players. Dino Prizmic will know that he is facing the best return player of all time and the expectation is that he will be under pressure on this side of his tennis, while you cannot underestimate the chances of nerves being a serious factor in the match.
The Champion will be looking to make things as comfortable as possible, but Novak Djokovic also has a couple of days rest coming up, assuming he does progress. That may mean he is willing to try one or two things on the court, but Novak Djokovic has also been able to dominate these early Round matches on the hard courts.
In fact he would have covered this handicap mark in sixteen of the last twenty-two First Round matches played at either the Australian Open or US Open. Novak Djokovic would have covered a handicap of this margin in five of the last six First Round matches played in Melbourne alone and the World Number 1 can open the Evening Sessions on Rod Laver Arena on Day 1 of the Australian Open with a big win.
Andrey Rublev - 8.5 games v Thiago Seyboth Wild: The early Rounds of Grand Slams is all about trying to get through to the next Round with the minimum of fuss.
This will be the aim for Andrey Rublev, who has already won a title in Hong Kong in 2024, when he faces an opponent who spends the majority of his time on the clay courts.
Thiago Seyboth Wild did reach a career best World Ranking in September, but he is just 4-10 on the hard courts over the last twelve months. He did win the first set against Hubert Hurkacz at the United Cup earlier this month, but Thiago Seyboth Wild was well beaten by the end of that match and also was dismissed by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in that tournament.
It does mean the Brazilian has lost all ten matches played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and Seyboth Wild has not been effective on the return of serve. That has increased the pressure on being able to serve well enough to contain the top players, but it has not been the case for Thiago Seyboth Wild and he will do well to keep Andrey Rublev from largely dominating this match.
He has suffered three losses to players from outside the top 50 on this surface over the last twelve months, but Andrey Rublev's overall numbers in the fifteen matches played against such players are impressive.
The serve is an effective weapon, but it is Rublev's aggression on the return which has really proved to be the key in those matches and he can put Thiago Seyboth Wild on the back foot in this one.
A wide handicap mark has to be respected, but Andrey Rublev should be able to find the breaks of serve needed to make sure he can move through with relative comfort. He can be a little hot-headed at times and perhaps get a little too frustrated, but this should largely be a match that Andrey Rublev can dictate on his racquet and he should be able to cover here.
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: One of the standout matches from the First Round looks to be this one between Frances Tiafoe and Borna Coric, but it is something of a surprise that the American is not considered a bigger favourite.
He has not been at his best since the US Open Quarter Final loss, but Frances Tiafoe has been operating at a higher level than Borna Coric over the last twelve months.
Injury has been a major factor that has worked against Coric, and he had been away from the Tour for a few months before returning at the United Cup. He showed flashes of his old form when going 1-1, but Borna Coric was well beaten by Casper Ruud and this is another considerable test.
Frances Tiafoe has room for improvement after winning one and losing one in Hong Kong in preparation for this event. Serving well is always the key as far as the American goes and over the last twelve months it has been important for Frances Tiafoe who has been able to hold 85% of the service games played on the surface.
Neither of these players have been returning at a high level, but Frances Tiafoe has an edge in that department and the feeling is that he can avoid the upset and find a way to battle through in four sets.
Their sole previous match was won by Borna Coric, but that was back in 2018 and the improvements made by Frances Tiafoe should see him level their personal series.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Francisco Cerundolo - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
JJ Wolf - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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