It is getting hard to see.
But an unbelievable first four days at the Australian Open continues to frustrate at a huge level.
Adrian Mannarino and Gael Monfils failures to get the job done as expected really are the ones that got away and prevented it from being a really poor day, but ultimately those bits of luck are going against me as much as the poor Picks.
In a long season you are always going to make a few Picks that feel wrong after watching even ten minutes of a match, but when the luck is seemingly against you too, it really does make it very hard to accept.
Let's face it, Mannarino was two sets up, had not faced a Break Point in those sets and looked comfortable- how many people would have predicted that he would then lose 6-1, 6-2 in the next couple of sets? Simply put, it doesn't make any sense and ultimately that doesn't feel like a bad Pick, but feels like a bad outcome, especially as he rallied in the Fifth Set to move through anyway.
Gael Monfils lost only six more points than his opponent and is somehow dumped out in straight sets, yet a couple of days before Felix Auger-Aliassime won double digit more points than Dominic Thiem and was dragged into a Fifth Set himself. The inches are minor in the sport, but it really does feel difficult to take when they seemingly are all trending away from you.
It could not have been a worse start to this opening Grand Slam of the 2024 season and some questions have to be asked about what has gone wrong. There have been tournaments in the past where you just don't feel too good about the approach being taken to finding the selections, but the first four days has seen an inordinate amount of bad luck splattered around.
However, it is not a path that I will continue to walk down without some indication that things are going to turn around and Day 5 is important with that in mind. Twelve months ago the Australian Open proved to be a very good start to the year, but it has been tough viewing so far with the losses piling up at a ridiculously fast rate.
Hopefully Day 5 is much more positive in what is shaping up to be one of the worst Grand Slam performances on these pages of all time.
Holger Rune - 6.5 games v Arthur Cazaux: Any player that has picked up a title and then battled through a First Round match at a Grand Slam has to be respected. Arthur Cazaux's title win came in a Challenger event, but a win over a top 50 Ranked opponent to get his Australian Open campaign underway will have given him a lot of confidence.
He will need all of that if he is going to get the better of one of the top Seeds in the draw, especially as Arthur Cazaux has not enjoyed a lot of success against the stronger players on the Tour. Over the last twelve months, Arthur Cazaux has lost four of his six matches played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents and he was well beaten by Andrey Rublev at the US Open.
Arthur Cazaux has a serve that can be a big weapon for him, but he has struggled on the return of serve against the stronger players.
More of that is to be expected in this Second Round match against Holger Rune who came through his opening match in four sets. The youngster has a decent serve, although Rune will know that there is room for improvement in his level on the hard courts over the last twelve months.
In something of a surprise, Holger Rune only owns a 4-3 record against players Ranked outside the top 100 on the hard courts in that time span. The serve will likely give Arthur Cazaux some problems, but it should be noted that Rune does get plenty more out of his return game against those players Ranked outside of the top 100 and this is something that should show up in this Second Round contest.
The feeling is that Holger Rune is going to have to deal with a competitive start from Arthur Cazaux and that the first couple of sets could be very closely fought. However, the extra qualities that have taken Rune into the top ten of the World Rankings will likely shine through as the match continues.
It was pretty much how the US Open match between Cazaux and Andrey Rublev played out and Holger Rune should be able to do just enough to cover this handicap mark.
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: It has been a very good start to the 2024 season Emil Ruusuvuori who reached the Final in Hong Kong and who came from a set down to win his First Round match at the Australian Open.
There has long been a lot of expectation on the shoulders of Emil Ruusuvuori, but his highest career World Ranking is Number 37 eight months ago.
His numbers on the hard courts over the last twelve months have been very good, although Emil Ruusuvuori has struggled when going up against the very top players. That was the case when he was beaten in the Hong Kong Final by Andrey Rublev and over the last twelve months the numbers have taken a serious dent when Emil Ruusuvuori has faced top 20 Ranked players.
So while Emil Ruusuvuori has held 80% of his service games played on the hard courts over the last twelve months, that number dips to 65% when only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents.
That is what the Finnish player is facing in the Second Round when going up against Daniil Medvedev who came through a tougher than expected First Round match. Brutal conditions in Melbourne made things difficult, as well as the fact that Medvedev was facing an opponent playing the match of his career to date, but the World Number 3 was in control as the match developed.
The factor of the First Round match being the first competitive outing of the year perhaps contributed to the test that Daniil Medvedev faced and he should be better for having put that win under his belt.
The match up is also one that Daniil Medvedev will enjoy having won both previous matches against Emil Ruusuvuori and in relatively comfortable fashion too.
It is the return of serve where Daniil Medvedev has kept Emil Ruusuvuori under pressure and he has broken in 56% of return games played against this opponent. At the same time Medvedev has used a big serve to dominant effect and he should be able to exert his control over Emil Ruusuvuori over the course of this best of five set match.
Conditions in Melbourne should be much better for the players on Thursday and Daniil Medvedev can produce a big win.
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: The only time these two players met on the Tour came on the hard courts at the Cincinnati Masters in 2021 and was won by Lorenzo Sonego. He reached his career best World Ranking a couple of months later, but Carlos Alcaraz has come on leaps and bounds in the time since these two last played on another in a competitive match.
Back then Carlos Alcaraz was Ranked outside of the top 50, but he is now the World Number 2 and a multiple time Grand Slam Champion. Plenty of people will be backing the Spaniard to break Novak Djokovic's dominance at the Australian Open, although Carlos Alcaraz has not had a big run in Melbourne in his career so far.
That should change if his comfortable win over Richard Gasquet is anything to go by, although Carlos Alcaraz will know the challenges are only going to get tougher the further he goes in the tournament.
It was his first match in 2024 and Alcaraz needed a bit of time to get into his rhythm and eventually pull clear of the challenge presented by Gasquet. He will be better for having that match under his belt and Carlos Alcaraz has shown he is very comfortable playing on the hard courts.
We know what kind of match we will get from Carlos Alcaraz, but the test for Lorenzo Sonego is to try and up his own level and see if he can give the World Number 2 a real work out. The Italian did well to beat Daniel Evans in the First Round, but Sonego had a pretty poor time in the warm up events prior to the Australian Open and has been an average player on the hard courts over the last twelve months.
The serve can be a potent weapon for Lorenzo Sonego, but he has not really been able to find any real consistency on the returning side of the court.
Lorenzo Sonego won one of his six matches played against top ten Ranked players on the hard courts over the last twelve months. He has still managed to hold 77% of his service games played in those matches, which suggests Sonego can keep this one competitive, although he will be tested by the Carlos Alcaraz ability to get plenty of balls back in play.
It is a big handicap mark considering the capabilities Lorenzo Sonego has as a server, but Carlos Alcaraz has shown that he can break opponents down. His returning numbers against players Ranked outside the top 20 on the hard courts are impressive and Alcaraz may also feel that the best of five set format gives him the time to really begin to dominate.
This should give Carlos Alcaraz an opportunity to cover the handicap line set as the Spaniard progresses to the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Holger Rune - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arthur Fils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Ugo Humbert - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Draper @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Emma Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 7-18, - 24.14 Units (50 Units Staked, - 48.28% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment