The first two days at the Australian Open were tremendously poor, but the First Round action concluded on Tuesday with a 5-1 run to at least get the tournament moving in a positive direction.
However, after the really poor run to open, there is still a long way back over the coming two weeks and there is little doubt that some luck will be needed.
It has been a frustrating start thanks to some near misses- there are at least three matches I can point to right away where the Picks were one or two points away from a win, but instead things spiralled out of control within those matches.
Sometimes there is nothing you can do about that- Felix Auger-Aliassime should have won in three sets, but was pushed into five, while Alexandre Muller had two Break Points that would have allowed him to serve out the match in the fourth set, and instead failed to capitalise and lost his serve, and the set, in the very next game.
As I said, there are matches that clearly stand out, but you can only do the research and make the selections and hope a little bit of luck is on your side.
The Day 3 Picks at least offers some momentum, but there is a mountain to trek to get truly back on track as the Second Round matches begin.
The big story through the First Round at the Australian Open is actually about an off court issue- Alexander Zverev is set to stand trial for a domestic abuse issue against a former girlfriend in May.
This has been a thorny issue for the player and the ATP for several months already, but the fact that his peers voted Alexander Zverev onto a representative body has really raised some eyebrows.
Unsurprisingly many of the questions to all players were focused on the Zverev issue.
My own personal feeling is that you cannot really expect to stop him playing on the Tour until he is officially found guilty. No matter how you feel, and I personally feel domestic abuse is abhorrent, it does feel that the evidence needs to be heard.
Mason Greenwood's situation at Manchester United was clearly very different to most others because we all heard the audio and so something immediate had to be done. With the Alexander Zverev situation, there is less clear evidence in the public domain, although the prosecutors clearly believe they have enough and so you have to let it play out through the justice system.
The worrying part is that he was voted onto the Player Council while these allegations have been around him and that is where the criticism is really finding a voice. While he is innocent until proven guilty, it is clearly not the time to be promoting Zverev into leadership roles and he should have been well aware of that himself, let alone others actually voting him in.
You have to feel this is going to overshadow every match he plays between now and the trial, while it is going to be interesting what kind of reaction he gets from the stands for the rest of this tournament and beyond.
Personally I think he has to be allowed to keep playing for now- but steps should be taken for him to move out of a limelight position and perhaps get Zverev focusing on clearing his name rather than being asked to lead his peers right now.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Tomas Martin Etcheverry: It is hard to know how highly Tomas Martin Etcheverry performed in his win over Andy Murray- the performance was solid enough, but Murray was so far below par that you do have to wonder if Etcheverry was good or whether Murray was just really poor?
He is one of the Seeded players in the Australian Open draw, but the fact remains that Tomas Martin Etcheverry has not had the best hard court results. The win over a former US Open Champion will give him belief, but Etcheverry has to expect the next veteran to be faced to be much more energised than Andy Murray was in an very disappointing effort.
It will not take much for Gael Monfils to get the crowd on his side in this Second Round match and the Frenchman will be very happy with his own First Round performance. Like Tomas Martin Etcheverry, Gael Monfils was able to come through what looked a difficult match in straight sets and it should mean both players head onto the court with confidence.
We are very early into the 2024 season and neither of these players came into the first Grand Slam of the year with a victory to their name. That has changed in Melbourne, which is another confidence booster, while the edge has to be with Gael Monfils who has played some strong hard court tennis throughout his career.
Winning a title in Stockholm on an indoor hard court in the second half of 2023 saw Gael Monfils beginning to find some of his stronger form. He has nothing to defend in terms of points over the next few weeks so there is plenty of motivation to improve the World Ranking with a couple of victories in this draw and Gael Monfils has the athleticism to get the better of this opponent.
You have to wonder if Tomas Martin Etcheverry can serve as well as he did in the First Round for another couple of hours when the Second Round gets going. Numbers over the last twelve months suggests that it is unlikely, while Etcheverry is not the strongest return player on the hard courts.
Gael Monfils has struggled with his own return, but has had more success on that side of the court over the last six months. The expectation is that will show up here and the veteran can find a way into the Third Round and likely another clash with Novak Djokovic.
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 games v Jesper De Jong: A strong First Round win will have given Jannik Sinner plenty of belief that he has the tennis to win a maiden Grand Slam title.
Bigger tests are to come for Jannik Sinner, but this is going to feel like a step down from the First Round when the Italian takes on Qualifier Jesper De Jong in the Second Round.
You have to only credit the 23 year old Dutchman for winning three Qualifying matches and then coming from a set down to win his First Round match. The victory over Pedro Cachin is the first that Jesper De Jong has had over a top 100 Ranked opponent, but there are factors at play that will make this a considerably tougher match up for the underdog.
For starters, Pedro Cachin is not exactly known for his hard court prowess, while De Jong is playing someone Ranked higher than World Number 69 for the first time. There is no mistaking how much tougher it is going to feel for Jesper De Jong when taking on someone of the talent of Jannik Sinner, who is a fixture inside the top 10 of the World Rankings.
The unfamiliarity with the opponent may make things a little tougher for Jannik Sinner, but the Italian is someone who wants to impose his tennis on every player he faces on the Tour. His style will put a lot of pressure on an opponent that is not used to facing the best players on a regular basis, while Jannik Sinner has won sixteen matches in a row (that have been completed) against players Ranked outside of the top 100 when scheduled to play them on a hard court.
Jannik Sinner has maintained strong serving numbers in those matches, but most impressive is the huge amount of breaks of serve that he puts on the board.
It means Jesper De Jong is going to have to serve really well to keep Sinner at bay, but that is tough to do over the best of five set format and the Number 4 Seed can secure a couple of sets by comfortable margins.
Covering this spread is clearly not going to be easy, but Sinner could be even better with a match under his belt and he can find the breaks that will be needed.
Adrian Mannarino - 5.5 games v Jaume Munar: A First Round match that lasted over three and a half hours is far from ideal, but Adrian Mannarino may feel pretty good having come from 2-1 down to beat Stan Wawrinka in five sets. Beating a former Australian Open Champion will give the veteran some confidence, and the reward for Adrian Mannarino is a very winnable Second Round match.
Jaume Munar has to be given some credit for finding a way to win his own First Round match as a significant underdog- he had a decent year on the hard courts in 2022, but the Spaniard has struggled on the surface over the last twelve months.
That includes failing to Qualify for Hong Kong and Auckland after entering those Rounds, while Munar won just a single match on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour in 2023. Even that was against someone Ranked at Number 489 and the Spaniard had some poor numbers on the hard courts.
It makes the First Round win an important one for him, but backing that up will be tough for Jaume Munar, who has lost his sole previous match against Adrian Mannarino.
That was played on a clay court in Madrid, but Adrian Mannarino should have a bigger advantage on this surface.
Adrian Mannarino will have a challenge to back up his First Round win having invested as much as he did into that victory. However, he has continued to play well when facing opponents outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings on the hard courts and he should be able to push his way through this match in either three or four sets.
Even a four set win would give Adrian Mannarino to cover this big handicap mark and he should be able to exert enough pressure on Jaume Munar to earn the place in the Third Round.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Adrian Mannarino - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elise Mertens - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 6-12, - 13.74 Units (36 Units Staked, - 38.17% Yield)
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