It has been a good tournament for the fans to enjoy with plenty of drama throughout the fortnight.
Of course it has been much tougher to make predictions when there have been as many erratic results as we have seen in Melbourne in 2024.
While the Grand Slam tournaments will shut down until the end of May, there are plenty of big tournaments to be played between now and the French Open. I have set myself a target to achieve between now and then, but it will require some patience and better decision making, although also hoping that some of the margins lean back towards the selections having had so many Picks come close, but ultimately fail to cross the line over the last two weeks.
First off we have to round out this tournament and my thoughts about the Men's Final can be read below.
Jannik Sinner - 1.5 sets v Daniil Medvedev: It was a stunning Friday of tennis at the Australian Open and it will be a big surprise to many that Novak Djokovic is not playing for yet another title in Melbourne.
He had never lost a Semi Final at the Australian Open, but Novak Djokovic was crushed by Jannik Sinner, a player who so many have tipped up to win a major. Some will have believed that could happen in 2024, but Jannik Sinner deserves a lot of credit for making his way into his maiden Grand Slam Final.
The World Number 1 felt he had played his 'worst' Grand Slam match, but take nothing away from Sinner who served big and rallied from the disappointment of dropping the third set. The Italian became the first player to prevent Novak Djokovic from earning a single Break Point in a completed Grand Slam match and it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner is going into the Final as the favourite.
Inexperience is perhaps an issue, but Daniil Medvedev has invested so much of himself to make his third Australian Open Final as he looks to finally win a title here. A former US Open Champion, Daniil Medvedev will be hoping a day of rest is enough to have him ready to compete in the Final after needing over 4 hours, especially having invested so much physical and emotional energy to come from 2-0 down in sets to beat rival Alexander Zverev.
It is the second time in the Australian Open that Daniil Medvedev has come back from two sets down and the third time he has needed all five sets to be played before progressing. That has to have an impact, although Medvedev has shown a warrior spirit to battle through matches even when things are seemingly beyond him.
All of that will be needed if he is going to win his second Grand Slam title, but it is going to take a special effort.
Simply put, Daniil Medvedev has not found his best form at the Australian Open and it has been his mental strength that has really proven to be the difference. He served really well in the last three sets in the Semi Final, but making as slow a start will be punished by Jannik Sinner, who really has impressed in his run to the Final.
Only one set has been dropped and the serve has proven to be an immense weapon for the World Number 4, which is likely going to be the case again in the Final.
If this match was played at the US Open, you would have had to worry about the head to head- at that time, Daniil Medvedev had won all six previous matches against Jannik Sinner, including two wins in 2023. However, it is Jannik Sinner who has won three in a row against Medvedev since the end of the last Grand Slam of 2023 in Beijing, Vienna and Turin.
All of those have been in indoor hard court events, but it will give Sinner plenty of belief and this is a player who has massively improved in leaps and bounds.
In those three wins, Jannik Sinner has held 90% of service games played, which is significantly better than his 74% overall mark against Daniil Medvedev. And with a potentially very tired opponent in front of him, Jannik Sinner will feel he can get enough balls back in play and really exert a lot of pressure on the World Number 3.
Handling the nerves will be key, but Sinner looks more than capable of doing that and the accumulated fatigue on Daniil Medvedev may just catch up with him in this match.
MY PICK: Jannik Sinner - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 23-49, - 57.34 Units (144 Units Staked, - 39.82% Yield)
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