The Tennis season is a long one and there are going to be plenty of opportunities to recover from a bad day or two.
In saying that, the first two days of 2024 have been historically bad for the selections and it has been very difficult to take.
Some bad Picks have been made, but there are three or four selections that you can point to straight away that were literally a point or two going in my favour, yet all have ended up slipping down the wrong side.
The Felix Auger-Aliassime win over Dominic Thiem summed it up after he blew a 2-0 lead in sets, only to rally and win anyway. So while he won't care and has his place booked in the next Round, I am left a little frustrated and irritated that another Pick has gone down from a very good winning position.
As I wrote on the Day 2 thread, the plan is to update all totals from the First Round in the Day 4 thread. Suffice to say the numbers are going to look pretty terrible, but we do have an opportunity to rally back even if some of the poor luck has had me second guessing some of the Picks made.
Assuming, which can be a mistake, that players are going to begin to play hard until hearing 'game, set, match', the Day 3 Picks can be seen below.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Dominik Koepfer: Two German ATP players meet in the Australian Open First Round on Tuesday, although Alexander Zverev will be carrying the hopes of the nation much more than Dominik Koepfer.
After a solid performance at the United Cup and a strong second half to the 2023 season, which started inconsistently after Alexander Zverev returned from an injury, the former World Number 2 is back up to Number 6 in the current World Rankings. He has very few Ranking points to defend at the Australian Open and Alexander Zverev will certainly feel he can get much closer to the top players in the coming weeks and months.
Winning a maiden Grand Slam title has to remain the goal for Alexander Zverev and he certainly has the capabilities to be a threat at three of the four Grand Slams played. Wimbledon is perhaps his weakest Slam, but this is a player who can really build momentum and is a definite threat to the top names on the Tour.
The First Round draw could have been easier, but Alexander Zverev does hold a couple of wins over his compatriot on the pro Tour.
Those were played in 2021, but Zverev was the dominant player and he should be able to exert his dominance on this match in the best of five set format.
Overlooking Dominik Koepfer would be a mistake, but the World Number 62 has lost his last four matches against top 50 Ranked opponents. Having a lefty serve could make things awkward for Alexander Zverev, although the latter has won his last twelve matches against southpaw players.
Dominik Koepfer did win a title on the Challenger Tour in the build up to the Australian Open so confidence is not going to be an issue, and he is certainly capable of serving well enough to stay with Alexander Zverev. However, the issue may be doing enough to pressure Zverev with his own return and that is where Dominik Koepfer is likely to come up a little short at the big moments.
Jack Draper - 5.5 games v Marcos Giron: Coming up a little short to win a maiden ATP Title will have been a disappointment for Jack Draper last week in Adelaide, but he should still be feeling good about his chances of having an impact at the first Grand Slam of the season. The British youngster has flashed his potential already on the Tour, but Draper needs a bit more luck with injuries that have prevented him from really kicking on.
He looks to have landed in a decent section of the Australian Open draw and that should give Jack Draper a chance to have a strong Grand Slam performance, which will also get him moving back towards his career best World Ranking mark.
First up for the British player is Marcos Giron, a veteran on the Tour who tends to play his best tennis on a hard court.
However, Marcos Giron is 30 years old now and his numbers have been relatively flat compared with Jack Draper on the hard courts over the last twelve months. Even removing Draper's performances on the Challenger Tour and you can see that the lefty has the superior serve and has been able to back that up with enough from the return game to string plenty of wins together.
The American is doing enough to keep his Tour Ranking in a decent place to enter most of the big tournaments, but Marcos Giron has been inconsistent over the last twelve months. There have been flashes with Giron reaching the last four in Tokyo after the US Open, but unkind draws have meant he has been beaten in the First Round in each of his last four appearances at the hard court Slams combined.
You have to believe that Marcos Giron and his team will look at Jack Draper as a winnable First Round match compared with some of those he has faced recently, but the younger player looks to be a progressing force on the Tour. Marcos Giron was beaten early in his only warm up tournament ahead of the Australian Open and the only concern about backing Jack Draper is the fact he reached the Final in Adelaide a few days ago.
However, it is positive for him to be scheduled for a Tuesday start in Melbourne and Jack Draper should be able to exert enough of his will on the match to eventually come through and with a cover of this handicap mark.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tommy Paul - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Katie Boulter - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
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