First things first, there were a couple of bad picks on Day 9 at the French Open.
Daniil Medvedev was completely outplayed, while Stefanos Tsitsipas couldn't handle the pressure of being in the weaker half of the draw.
However, I can't ignore the fact that poor fortune continues to hit me very, very hard in this tournament and has been ever since the Madrid Masters.
Jessica Pegula won her match easily, but only managed five more points than her opponent. For her to win the match with that margin is one thing, but to basically secure every big point to make sure of a wide win on the scoreboard is beyond frustrating.
It just added to a day when Madison Keys somehow blew all of her momentum with early poor service games in the second and third set, while Hubert Hurkacz played a really poor game in the fourth set when it looked like he was on the way to getting the total games line surpassed. As soon as he missed the smash at 40/30 to make it 3-1 and keep the momentum going, everything fell apart for the 'serve-bot' and it was yet another Pick that looked close to getting into the winner's enclosure before falling short.
There is no doubt the last four days have been tough to take.
Novak Djokovic - 1.5 sets v Rafael Nadal: Previously the only Grand Slam that used surface ratings to change their Seedings around to make fairer draw was at Wimbledon, but they have fallen back in line with the rest of the Tour and now go by the World Rankings. However, that discussion about surface success being part of the formula has been raised again at the French Open when the Men's draw put Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz in the same half of the tournament.
It means we have some huge matches as early as the Quarter Final at the second Grand Slam of the 2022 season and this is the big ticket seller of the week.
Eleven of the last twelve French Open titles has been won by either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal and so it does feel a little wrong that we are seeing these two face each other at this stage of the tournament. Last year it was Novak Djokovic who ended Rafael Nadal's four year winning run at the French Open and the defending Champion and current World Number 1 may feel he is catching his great rival at the right time.
Not many will have forgotten Rafael Nadal's crushing of Novak Djokovic in the French Open Final of 2020, but it should also be noted that Djokovic has won their last two matches in Paris when the tournament has been played in the spring, it's normal spot in the calendar. In 2015 Novak Djokovic was a very comfortable straight sets winner over Rafael Nadal in the Quarter Final and last year he beat Nadal in four sets in the Semi Final on the way to winning his second title in the French capital.
There were plenty of swings in momentum in that Semi Final match last year with both of these all-time great players having a huge amount of break points. At the end of the match Novak Djokovic looked the much stronger player, but it is a huge emotional and physical challenge to beat Nadal in Paris.
Another factor giving Novak Djokovic the edge has to be the foot injury that Rafael Nadal is still managing- it hasn't really shown up in the tournament after the Spaniard limped off the court in his loss at the Rome Masters, but Nadal is coming in off a match that lasted well over four hours in the Fourth Round and the day of rest between matches is going to be very important for recovery.
It is Novak Djokovic who came into the French Open with the momentum having won the title in Rome, while I think he will be the fresher player having expended much less energy in seeing off his Fourth Round opponent compared with Rafael Nadal. The win over Nadal here twelve months ago is surely going to offer much more encouragement too and I do think Novak Djokovic has been playing the stronger overall tennis in the French Open of the two.
While not quite at his very best level, Novak Djokovic looks to have a slight edge on the serve and I think that will be key to the outcome of the match.
In their seventeen previous Grand Slam matches, only three have gone the distance, and only one of their nine French Open clashes have needed five sets. This should be a really good match while it lasts, but the feeling is that Novak Djokovic has the physical edge and that can prove to be the difference maker as he moves a step closer to defending the title he won here in 2021.
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: After the humbling in the Final of the Madrid Masters, Alexander Zverev will be playing with revenge and redemption in his mind when he takes on the next big superstar of men's tennis. There are a couple of factors that went against Alexander Zverev in the Spanish capital and he was not very happy with the scheduling that meant playing the Final after a late finish in the Semi Final, but the German will also know he needs to step up his level considerably if he is going to reach the last four at the French Open.
This has been far from a convincing tournament from Alexander Zverev even though he has only dropped sets in the one match. Yes, he was two sets down to Sebastian Baez, but Alexander Zverev fought back and has won back to back matches in straight sets since that Second Round match.
However, he has not looked completely at ease on the court and beating players Ranked Number 75 and Number 131 means Alexander Zverev has benefited from the draw rather than perhaps picking up his level of play. That is backed up by the tight numbers despite the straight sets wins over Brandon Nakashima and Bernabe Zapata Miralles and in the last Round we saw Alexander Zverev really struggle when it came to the serve.
There is no doubt that Alexander Zverev is going to have to serve better than he has for the majority of this Grand Slam if he is going to compete in this Quarter Final. He has given up far too many break points and now has to take on Carlos Alcaraz who has looked in very calm mood in the last two Rounds as he has played some exceptional tennis to move through to the Quarter Final.
Strong wins over Sebastian Korda and Karen Khachanov will have given Carlos Alcaraz more confidence, if he needs it, and he has been very strong behind serve to put a host of pressure on his opponents. We know how good a return player Carlos Alcaraz can be and he has shown that in the tournament with at least twelve break points created in each match so far.
I expect the youngster to be able to exert himself on that side of the court in this one too and I do think he is playing with a lot more belief than Alexander Zverev.
Before the tournament you can see that Carlos Alcaraz had the edge in serving and returning numbers compared with Alexander Zverev and there will be a mental edge having beaten this opponent in the Madrid Masters for the loss of just four games.
I find it very hard to believe this one will end in a rout like that Final, but I do think Carlos Alcaraz is playing at a considerably better level than Alexander Zverev right now. The latter is the higher Ranked player and has a lot more experience than Alcaraz, but Alexander Zverev has admitted that has has been a little down on his tennis and I do think things could end up running away from him in this Quarter Final.
Pride should mean we see Alexander Zverev coming out to make an early statement and he may even take a set, but I feel it may be tough to rally mentally if he does fall behind and Carlos Alcaraz is playing so well that he is not likely to take his foot off the gas if he does get into a winning position.
Even in a four set match, this feels like a handicap mark that Carlos Alcaraz can get the better of and I will look for him to put together a really good win before taking on the winner of the Novak Djokovic-Rafael Nadal match in the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 46-50, - 15.80 Units (191 Units Staked, - 8.27% Yield)
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