After a slow start, it looked like the momentum was behind the Tennis Picks on Day 5.
However, late illness issues saw Dan Evans and Simona Halep blow winning positions and both were knocked out of the French Open, while Andrey Rublev missed Match Points that would have secured a cover and he followed a number of other players to beat his opponent one game too late for my selection.
At least I avoided a big losing day and that means the tournament remains in a strong position for the Tennis Picks, but I do also expect more. The Third Round begins on Friday and I have a number of selections that can be read below.
Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: It looked like the Second Round was following the First Round in being a routine day in the office for Novak Djokovic, but windy conditions and a big hitting lefty forced him into a bit of a battle in the third set. Ultimately it did not matter too much for the World Number 1 and he has progressed to the Third Round without dropping a set and with better, more appealing conditions to come.
He is going into this Third Round match as another big favourite, which is not a surprise, and I do think Novak Djokovic is most likely going to progress to the second week with another straight sets victory behind him.
The big question here is whether Novak Djokovic can do enough to cover a big spread against a decent clay courter in Aljaz Bedene. However, the Slovenian has not had a lot of tennis in the build to the French Open as he makes a return from an injury and his results prior to the tournament had not been anything to write home about.
In saying that, two wins in the main draw as the underdog will have done Aljaz Bedene the world of good, even if he is well aware that his is a huge step up in level compared with wins over Christoper O'Connell and Pablo Cuevas. They were still solid wins, especially the Second Round win over Cuevas when Aljaz Bedene had to dig deep, but that may not be enough to compete with someone like Novak Djokovic.
At his very best, Aljaz Bedene does have a serve that can be effective on the clay courts, and that is going to be key for his chances in this one. The best he can do is hope to serve well and see if that can build any kind of pressure on Novak Djokovic, no matter how tall a task it is.
In the lead to the French Open, Aljaz Bedene was only holding 65% of the service games played and that has to be a concern against someone who can return as well as Novak Djokovic.
The previous three meetings have all been won well by Djokovic, although they have not met since the Rome Masters in 2017, while the World Number 1 holds a comfortable win over Aljaze Bedene right here in Paris. Again, that was some time ago, but Novak Djokovic is still playing at a high level and Bedene may not be quite the player he once was and it could lead to a relatively serene progress through to the Fourth Round for Djokovic.
Novak Djokovic has broken the Aljaz Bedene serve in 43% of return games played against him in their two previous clay court matches and I think the latter may have slipped a little bit since then. It is a big mark for a Third Round match, but I do think he can win this one with a similar score to the one produced when these two met in Paris in 2016.
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: One of the stronger clay court campaigns has been put together by Grigor Dimitrov and he is clearly playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. That has been backed up by the impressive wins over Marcos Giron and Borna Coric in the first couple of Rounds here at the French Open.
While he was a favourite to win both matches, Grigor Dimitrov has made both opponents look very ordinary in those victories and that has impressed the most. He played really well in the lead into the tournament and clearly is operating at a high level that may be difficult for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to deal with.
Of course the diminutive Argentine is very comfortable on the clay courts, but there may be one or two signs that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is slowing down. The clay court numbers produced in 2022 have been down on the previous year, while the European clay court swing has really seen some inconsistent results from Schwartzman.
The serve has always been something of a vulnerability, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has seen his hold percentage drop from 73% last season to 68% this season and at this level that is a big difference. It has dropped further to 66% during the last two months on the European clay courts and Schwartzman has had some disappointing losses to take in that time.
To underline the struggles, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman surprisingly dropped a set in the First Round and then had to fight back from 0-2 down to beat Jaume Munar in the Second Round. Beating the Spaniard from behind is actually a pretty good recovery, but it may have taken something out of the legs and that is an issue.
Making matters worse, Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is facing an opponent who has beaten him three times in a row since their first meeting in Istanbul. That was memorable for the mental collapse for Grigor Dimitrov who felt everything was going against him, but the Bulgarian has been the better player when they have met since then.
It includes a very comfortable win at the Madrid Masters earlier this month when Grigor Dimitrov gave up just three games in the win.
He has enjoyed facing the Diego Sebastian Schwartzman serve and has broken in 43% of return games played in their four previous meetings. That jumps to 52% when considering their two previous clay court matches and Grigor Dimitrov will feel his own serve is working well enough to keep Schwartzman contained in this match.
I do think Grigor Dimitrov is playing at a level that may be tough for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman to deal with, even on a clay court, and my feeling is that the former will get through in three or four sets.
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 5.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: Working with Uncle Toni should stand Felix Auger-Aliassime in good stead in general, but especially on the clay courts where Toni Nadal had worked really well with his nephew Rafael Nadal. No one is going to confuse the young Canadian with Nadal, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has had improved results on the red dirt in 2022 and I do think he can make the second week at the French Open.
He reached the Quarter Final at both the Madrid and Rome Masters and it took some of the very best clay courters to end Auger-Aliassime's run at both events. However, the confidence from putting the wins together will have really helped Felix Auger-Aliassime and especially in the First Round here where he had to recover from two sets down.
Things were much more comfortable in the Second Round and I do think Auger-Aliassime can build on the run against someone who is decent, but nothing special on the clay courts.
Filip Krajinovic has impressed at the French Open and has only dropped a single set, while clay court wins over David Goffin and Andrey Rublev have to be respected. His numbers are pretty average in all honesty though and before this tournament he had held 76% of service games played, but only broken in 17% of return games, which makes this match a real challenge for him.
The edge looks to be with Felix Auger-Aliassime on the return of serve and I think that will be key to the outcome of the match.
The Canadian also has the mental edge having won both matches against Filip Krajinovic last year, including one on the clay courts. That win in Rome will have done a lot for Felix Auger-Aliassime as he had been beaten really comfortably at the same event by Filip Krajinovic in 2020, albeit at a Rome tournament played in the Autumn rather than the Spring.
In the two matches in 2021, Felix Auger-Aliassime dominated behind serve and return and I think the improved clay courter can back that up with another win over Filip Krajinovic. This is a pretty wide spread for a Third Round match, but it is one that I think Felix Auger-Aliassime can cover in the form he has displayed over the last two months as he looks to reach the second week at his fourth Slam in a row and for the first time in Paris.
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: A poor start to the Second Round match put Alexander Zverev in a very tough position and he had to hold off Sebastian Baez in the final set on his road to recovery. Saving a Match Point in the Second Round is not an ideal situation to be in, but Alexander Zverev managed to hold on and all that matters right now is that he is scheduled to play in the Third Round.
There will be some questions as to the performance of the first two sets, but it may also prove to be a turning point in his career. While he is in the very tough top half of the draw, Alexander Zverev will have shown he has the heart to win a Grand Slam title and the match up in the Third Round looks to be one that should be more comfortable.
That is not being disrespectful to Brandon Nakashima, who has a lot of potential as part of the next generation of male players representing the United States, but there is also no doubt that his better performances will currently be on the faster surfaces. You have to credit Brandon Nakashima for taking advantage of what looked to be a kind draw in the first two Rounds, although he did need the full five sets in the First Round.
However, the American had only held 65% of his service games played on the clay courts before this tournament began and I do think he will be put under pressure by Alexander Zverev if the latter brings in the form that he produced in the final three sets a couple of days ago. Those struggles were in clear evidence in the two top 20 Ranked opponents Brandon Nakashima has played in the build to the French Open.
Brandon Nakashima was well beaten by both Casper Ruud and Grigor Dimitrov and he was able to hold just 50% of his service games played in those two matches. The return was also much more difficult against Ruud and Dimitrov with 17% of return games ending in a break, and Nakashima saw his own serve broken at least four times in each match.
Over the best of five set format, that gap between Brandon Nakashima and the top clay court players should become clearer and I do think Alexander Zverev is going to be much more focused out of the scare in the Second Round.
He also has experienced the Brandon Nakashima game with Alexander Zverev beating him in four sets at the US Open a couple of years ago. I have no doubt that Brandon Nakashima is a better player for the experience in that time, but that was also on a court he would favour and the clay court edge for Zverev is very difficult to ignore.
On that day, Alexander Zverev managed to break the Brandon Nakashima serve five times and I think the German can win this one in much more routine fashion than he produced a couple of days ago against a pretty decent clay courter.
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 sets v Karen Khachanov: There haven't been too many British players who have enjoyed playing on the clay courts, but Cameron Norrie has become an all-court performer. Winning a title in the week before a Grand Slam is not always ideal preparation, especially in the men's tournament, but Cameron Norrie is clearly confident and has made relatively comfortable work of his first couple of matches at the French Open.
The clay court performances in 2021 were something of a surprise, but you cannot say the same in 2022 with Cameron Norrie producing strong results again.
The numbers have remained remarkably similar between 2021 and the 2022 clay court seasons and that is pretty impressive when you think Cameron Norrie holds 79% of service games played and backs that up with 26% of return games ending in a break of serve. A loss to Alex De Minaur is one that Cameron Norrie would love to have back, but it has taken a big effort from Carlos Alcaraz to beat him in Madrid and defeats to Marin Cilic and Albert Ramos-Vinolas don't look so bad when you think of the French Open performances of the pair of those veterans.
Cameron Norrie will go into this Third Round match as the favourite against Karen Khachanov who has long been a solid, if unspectacular clay court player. The latter is someone who has a very big game, but perhaps not the patience to perform on the red dirt as well as he can on the hard courts and I do think he has a tough match up in front of him.
Winning matches will have given Karen Khachanov some confidence, but he is taking a big step up from his previous two opponents in the French Open who are both Ranked 90 or lower. Before the tournament Khachanov had posted a losing record on the clay courts too and his numbers have been a little disappointing.
We all know that Karen Khachanov has a solid serve that can set up plenty of easy points and he has held 77% of his service games on the clay, but the return has been an issue with 17% of games ending in a break. Like Cameron Norrie, has has suffered a couple of losses to quality players, but defeats to Lucas Pouille and Alex Molcan are less impressive and his numbers on the return are someway behind Cameron Norrie's, which can prove to be a difference maker on the day.
There is also a mental edge for the British player with Cameron Norrie holding a 3-2 head to head lead over Karen Khachanov. One of those wins came earlier this year on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam, while the other two wins have both been on clay courts.
Both took place in 2021 and Cameron Norrie has held 90% of his service games in those two clay matches against Karen Khachanov compared with the 61% mark that the latter has produced. With the superior clay court numbers in general as well as the head to head, I think Cameron Norrie can be backed to win this match in three or four sets.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 5.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cameron Norrie - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 34-29, + 4.58 (126 Units Staked, + 3.63% Yield)
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