The last couple of days have been much more difficult for the Tennis Picks from the Madrid Masters, but I am hoping to get back to winning ways on Tuesday.
I have been able to update the season totals after the events in Estoril and Munich were concluded on Sunday, which you can see below.
There are plenty of matches scheduled to be played in Madrid on Tuesday, but the selections I've found can be read here. Some markets have yet to be put together with Second Round ATP matches set to be played on Tuesday as well as the conclusion of the First Round, and any additional Picks will be added here too.
Sara Sorribes Tormo v Daria Kasatkina: There are some very good looking matches on the WTA side of the Madrid Masters on Tuesday, but the layers seem to be on top of the prices for the most part.
One Third Round match where I feel they have gotten the prices the wrong way around is the one between the Sara Sorribes Tormo and Daria Kasatkina.
The home favourite crushed Naomi Osaka in the Second Round and Sara Sorribes Tormo has spoken about feeling burnout at the end of last season, but feeling much more renewed in 2022. She has not really played to the same level as 2021 so far this season, but the early performances on the clay courts are encouraging and the win over Naomi Osaka will have given her a huge boost.
With the fans behind her, Sara Sorribes Tormo should be able to back up that win in the Second Round, although she will know this is going to be a tough match against Daria Kasatkina. The latter has played well on the clay courts throughout her career, but the World Number 23 has never been a dominant player with a serve that can be vulnerable, which puts pressure on the return of serve.
Both of these players have struggled with the second serve, but Sara Sorribes Tormo has tended to get a much higher percentage of first serves into play. That could be to the outcome of this one, especially when you think the Spaniard has been the stronger return player in the limited sample of clay court matches in 2022.
Even a longer look at the last twelve months, Sara Sorribes Tormo has been the player with the superior second serve and return numbers on the clay courts and I think she can get the better of Daria Kasatkina as the slight underdog. These players have split two previous matches on the clay courts and I expect there to be plenty of break point chances in this one, but Sara Sorribes Tormo can use the energy of the crowd to take her through to the Quarter Final.
Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 games v Hugo Dellien: There is only a small sample of clay court tennis played by Hubert Hurkacz in 2022 and this is only the second tournament has entered on the surface. However, the Polish player reached the Monte Carlo Masters Quarter Final before losing a tight match to Grigor Dimitrov and the next month could still be productive for Hurkacz who is perhaps looking forward to the grass court and hard court portions of the season to come.
In previous years, Hubert Hurkacz has not really enjoyed a lot of success on the clay and last season was a particularly difficult one for him. That makes the Monte Carlo performance important as he looks to find the confidence to put together strong runs on the surface and I think he will benefit from playing someone he has already beaten on the clay in 2022.
The First Round match against Hugo Dellien does look very winnable on paper, especially in the tough conditions in Madrid where you would expect the Hubert Hurkacz serve to make more of an impact than in other clay events.
Hugo Dellien has come through the Qualifiers in Madrid so the conditions are not going to surprise him, while has won plenty of clay court matches throughout the season. However, Hugo Dellien has seen the numbers take a serious drop whenever he has been faced with top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface this season.
In all matches on the clay, the Bolivian has held 78% of his service games played and broken in 39% of return games, but both numbers dip to 72% and 27% when Hugo Dellien has been up against top 100 Ranked opponents.
These two players met in Monte Carlo after Hugo Dellien had won a couple of Qualifiers, but he was not able to deal with the Hubert Hurkacz serve and the latter won 70% of points played behind that shot. With the conditions as they are in Madrid, I expect Hubert Hurkacz to be able to match that, while the top 20 Ranked player was also able to break serve in 27% of return games against the Dellien serve.
I expect Hubert Hurkacz to be able to frank the form in a tournament that should suit his tennis more than the events in Monte Carlo, Rome or Paris would. I would not be surprised if Hugo Dellien pushes him early, but eventually Hubert Hurkacz should be able to exert enough scoreboard pressure to pull clear for a good, solid First Round win.
MY PICKS: Sara Sorribes Tormo @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madrid Update: 9-8, - 0.26 Units (34 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2022: - 9.36 Units (564 Units Staked, - 1.66% Yield)
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