NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks- Games 5-7
The NBA PlayOffs have not really had the in-game drama as much as the television executives would have hoped, but there is no doubting that some of the Series have been very competitive.
We have already had a couple of Series needing a Game 7 to determine a winner, while the Eastern Conference Finals look well on the way to another final game decider between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat.
By the time you read this, the Golden State Warriors may have earned their spot in the NBA Finals, but the chances are that they will not need too many chances to complete the win over the Dallas Mavericks having moved to a 3-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals.
It has been a good Round for the NBA Picks with a 6-1 record through the first seven days of the Conference Finals with one more selection to be completed. I will have the updated totals in this thread on Wednesday when the Pick for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals will have been made.
Momentum is a good thing, but the layers are also on top of the numbers with the limited games on the board meaning they can put in a really good effort to be right on the money when it comes to the lines. That makes beating them even more challenging, but it has been so far so good in the Conference Finals so far.
Wednesday 25th May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: The Boston Celtics led wire to wire in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and they were able to level the Series with the Miami Heat at 2-2. While they did have a big lead at the end of the First Quarter, the Celtics will know they still have room for improvement and they are unlikely to face a Miami Heat team that was as out of sync as they were in the last game.
The starters all struggled in that loss, while the absence of Tyler Herro will have hurt the second unit- Herro looks like he may have to sit again, but I cannot imagine the Miami Heat play with the same lack of intensity as they showed in Game 4. Jimmy Butler earned plenty of rest in the second half as the Heat pulled their top players, although the Heat also need him to get back to the level he showed early in the Series.
Miami did not shoot the ball very well and they know the likes of Butler, PJ Tucker and Kyle Lowry are hurting, but a return to home comforts should offer the team a boost. You can't imagine them shooting as poorly as they did in Game 4, while the Miami Heat will be motivated by the fact the layers have them down as the home underdog.
They did respond to the Game 2 defeat by making a fast start to the First Quarter of Game 3 and that helped the Heat edge in front before the Boston Celtics levelled things up for a second time in the Eastern Conference Finals.
I am expecting much better from Miami in Game 5, but the Boston Celtics have already won a game here during the Eastern Conference Finals and will certainly believe they can do that again. They will also be the first to admit that they did not shoot the ball as well as they can in their blowout win over the Heat, but a dominant performance on the glass helped the Celtics come through with a vital win before heading to South Beach.
Boston will be looking for much better from the three point shooters who struggled to a 24% effort in the win in Game 4. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Grant Williams combined for just 4/26 from beyond the arc and the Celtics will be desperate to have Marcus Smart back in the line up after he missed the win at the TD Garden on Monday.
Marcus Smart has been shooting the ball well from the three point range and his Defensive ability is a huge part of the successes that the Boston Celtics have had. The absence did not have a major impact on the Defensive side of the court, but I think Marcus Smart will be needed in this tough road environment and especially if the Celtics want a spark at both ends of the court.
Recent Game 5 trends in the Conference Finals suggest Miami could be the team to back, but I think this is going to be one of the more competitive PlayOff games we have seen in the post-season in 2022. I am expecting both teams to shoot a little better than they did in Game 4, while the Celtics have produced an 8-2-1 record for the over in their last eleven as the road favourite.
At the same time the Miami Heat have a 9-2 record for the over in the last eleven games when they have played a team with a winning record. The first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals have all trended to the over and the total for this Game 5 looks low enough to believe it is one that will surpass the line.
I am expecting both teams to shoot the ball better than they did in Game 4 and especially from the three point range, which should see the teams carry the game over the total. Picking a winner is far from certain in this pivotal game and I will instead just focus on a relatively high-scoring game being produced.
Thursday 26th May
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After the events in Texas that have sickened most sensible people, Steve Kerr was emotional in his pre-game presser as he called on the lawmakers of the country to change the legislation to make life safer for children who have suffered mass shootings at schools far too often.
Basketball, and all other sports, are clearly not the be all and end all when tragic events like those we saw on Tuesday occur, but players have to do their jobs.
While the bigger picture was clearly on the mind of the Head Coach, there will also be some internal questions as to why the Golden State Warriors continue to struggle when it comes to a close out situation in a Game 4 of a PlayOff Series. They were trailing by a huge margin by the Third Quarter as the Dallas Mavericks shot very efficiently from the three point line and it meant Steve Kerr decided to pull his starters for the majority of the Fourth Quarter.
Some of those only returned when the bench players gave the Warriors a late opportunity to perhaps steal the game away, but ultimately the Golden State Warriors fell short and they will be looking for much greater intensity when returning home for a second close out opportunity.
The Dallas Mavericks have far from given up from turning the Western Conference Finals around and become the first team to win a Series from 3-0 down, but that means winning twice on the road at the Warriors. All they can do is take things a game at a time, while the Mavericks will be hoping the role players continue to shoot the ball as well as they did from the three point range last time out.
In Game 2, the Mavericks shot well in the first half here before they turned ice cold in the second half and allowed the Golden State Warriors to take control. At this stage of the post-season, I am not expecting the Mavericks to change their approach and that means moving the ball and hoping the role players continue to shoot lights out from the three point mark.
Ultimately I think that is beyond them and the Dallas Mavericks are just 3-6 on the road in the post-season, while the Warriors have won all eight home games.
Home comforts should help Golden State being much more intense all around and they have won a couple of games here against Dallas by wide margins already in the Western Conference Finals.
Recent trends in the Conference Finals favour them too- favourites have gone 11-3 against the spread in the last fourteen Game 5s played in the Conference Finals before this season, while teams coming in off a loss have produced a 10-4 record against the spread. The higher Seeded team have also dominated recent Game 5s in the Conference Finals too and all of these trends can be met by Golden State with another big home win on Thursday.
The Warriors are 4-1 against the spread following a straight up loss and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the home favourite.
At the same time, the Dallas Mavericks are now 1-6 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog and I do think it is much more difficult for the role players to keep their shots flowing in road games.
Golden State won by 25 points here in Game 1 and 9 points in Game 2 and I do think the Warriors can win and cover as they book their place in the NBA Finals next week.
Friday 27th May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 6 Pick: A low-scoring Game 5 saw the most competitive First Half of the Eastern Conference Finals so far, but the Boston Celtics knuckled down after the break. That saw them continue to suffocate the Miami Heat on the Defensive side of the court, but the Celtics were also able to find some rhythm Offensively and now bring a 3-2 lead back to the TD Garden.
It has been twelve years since the Boston Celtics last made it through to the NBA Finals, but four losses in the Eastern Conference Finals and two of those from this position means there should be a focus and intensity to their Basketball.
They cannot take anything for granted, but the Boston Celtics have all of the momentum having secured back to back wins and holding the Miami Heat to 82 points and 80 points in those victories. Make no mistake, the Celtics will not want to start Game 6 as they did the last one when struggling from the field, and that means getting Jayson Tatum going as early as possible and looking for the role players to step up with more consistency at home.
Being at home should make that possible and the Celtics will want to come out with real intensity and aggression.
However, they also have to expect the Miami Heat to be much better than what we have seen from the Number 1 Seed in the last two games. Injuries are hurting the Heat at the wrong time of the season, but the players are all expected to suit up, including Tyler Herro, in what is a must win game for Miami.
Jimmy Butler has really struggled since picking up his knee injury in Game 3, while the likes of Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker and Gabe Vincent are all on the injury report ahead of this big game. The Heat have struggled shooting the ball from any distance and they have not been able to get to the foul line as quickly or as often as they would have liked.
Can much change now? Possibly- you have to expect Miami to shoot better than they have in the last two games considering how they played all season, while Jimmy Butler may choose to leave it all out on the court in a bid to bring this Series back to Miami for a Game 7.
In saying that, it is hard to argue against the momentum the Boston Celtics have picked up by winning consecutive games for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals. They are a much more experienced team these days so it is hard to imagine them blowing a 3-2 lead again in the Conference Finals, while recent trends in Game 6 of this Round favour the Celtics too.
The last four teams that have tried to close out the Conference Finals in Game 6 have all won and covered their handicap mark having won those games by an average of 14 points per game. Boston have also continued the strong run Number 2 Seeds have had in the Conference Finals when set as the favourite having covered two out of three times they have been in that spot in this Series.
This is a very big number and the early money has been on the Miami Heat to move the line down, but those teams favoured by 5 or more points have put together a 3-1 record against the spread in the Conference Finals this season. It means those teams have improved to 34-22-1 against the spread since 2013 and I do think the Celtics may have too much scoring for the Heat to keep up with using players limited by injury.
In recent seasons the Miami Heat have been a strong team bouncing back off a loss and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games following a double digit loss at home.
However, the Boston Celtics are 20-8-1 against the spread in their last twenty-nine games overall and they look capable of closing the Eastern Conference Finals here.
Sunday 29th May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 7 Pick: Back to back Series have ended up in a Game 7 for the Boston Celtic having blown an opportunity to join the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals in a home loss on Friday night. There will be frustration and one or two mental demons to exorcise considering many of the Celtics were part of the group that blew a 3-2 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in their last appearance in the Eastern Conference Finals.
No one should be panicking, but the Celtics can ill-afford to start as poorly as they did in Game 6, especially not on the road. Turnovers in the First Quarter and then late Free Throws missed when the game was tied proved to be costly for the Boston Celtics, but they have to feel they are still the better team.
In saying that, can you really look past the Miami Heat? Jimmy Butler was back to his very best in leading the Heat with 47 points in Game 6, but the role players also stepped up and made some big plays late in the game to secure a return to South Beach for this huge Game 7 and they are clearly inspired by being ruled out by so many.
Once again they are going to be feeling like they are being disrespected as the home underdog, while teams that have won Game 6 in the Conference Finals have produced a 3-1 record straight up and against the spread in the last four times this has been needed. There are other trends that are going against the Boston Celtics too and that is a concern, but again I have to say they feel the better team with more to control.
They have shown they can contain the Miami Heat Offensively and Jimmy Butler is still playing on a sore knee so it has to be asked if he can produce the same as Game 6 two nights later.
Boston will feel they lost control of Game 6 and still had a chance to win it, while the favourite looks to have the money behind them going into this Game 7. Injuries could play a part, but this is the stage of the season where bodies have to be put on the line knowing there is a few days between the end of the Conference Finals and the start of the NBA Finals.
I expect tension, I expect the home crowd to be firmly behind the Miami Heat and I would love to see the referees take a step back and allow the players to decide the outcome of the match. That could be a factor if they get too involved, but this should be a really good game between two teams who have had some ups and downs in the Conference Finals.
For the most part, the Boston Celtics have looked more consistent and with control of their own destiny and they did win here in Game 2 and Game 5.
They have also covered in their last six games following a straight up loss, while the Celtics are 20-6-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven road games.
Miami have been very good at home and there is no doubt they will compete right to the end, but Boston are 4-1 against the spread in their last five here and I will back them to come through another Game 7 in their PlayOff run this season.
MY PICKS: 25/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 203.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/05 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
27/05 Boston Celtics - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
29/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 9-3, + 5.19 Units (13 Units Staked, + 39.92% Yield)
Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)
First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
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