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Saturday 7 May 2022

Boxing Picks 2022- Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol (May 7th)

You can't argue with the outcome of the Katie Taylor-Amanda Serrano event at Madison Square Garden.

Both have to be applauded for raising the stock of their sport and it was a genuinely good watch.

Now I want the next generation of stars to really push for Women's Boxing to be equal to the Men's and it has to begin with Twelve Round Title bouts, quickly followed by three minute Rounds.

My feeling that Taylor is more resistant to the idea came true in the torrid middle Rounds she suffered on the night- I think three minute Rounds would have seen her stopped as she was battered around the ring by Amanda Serrano.

However, the likes of Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall are at the peak of their powers and they can write their own names down in history by becoming the first Women to compete in a three minute Round bout with the potential pound for pound number one on the line.

We have already seen in MMA that the female fighters can handle the same requirements as the male fighters and Boxing needs to follow suit sooner rather than later.


It was a fight that will deserve a rematch if that is the direction that Katie Taylor wants to go, although talk of fighting Cris Cyborg or Holly Holm is far less of a danger for the veteran. Those are less interesting too, and at this stage I would not be massively surprised if Taylor and Serrano do it again, this time in a Stadium in Ireland.

On the same night we saw the development of Shakur Stevenson as he moves into star level and there is a real feeling that he is the true 135 King in the making, despite the likes of Devin Haney, Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia leading the way. He dominated Oscar Valdez and never looked in doubt as the clear winner and I am not sure Unification fights at 130 are appealing now he has beaten the consensus number two in the Division.

However, most are tied up at 135 which leaves the obvious fight for Stevenson to take another leap in level.

Vasily Lomachenko.

Both are under the same promotional team and the only question may be how long Lomachenko is going to be out of the ring as he continues to defend his homeland. If he is ready to return in the fall, like his compatriot Oleksandr Usyk is set to return in the summer,  I do think that is a super-fight that both would love to put together.


I got the Picks wrong for the two main events last week, but the limited stakes coupled with three big winners means another strong showing for the Boxing Picks.

With one really big card coming up on Saturday, my Picks for the week can be read below.



Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol

The biggest star in Boxing has returned to a traditional big weekend in the calendar and it is the latest challenge for Canelo Alvarez to take on.

We've all known for a long time how good Canelo is, but I never thought I would see him fighting a legitimate Light Heavyweight World Champion and especially not one that is unbeaten and looking pretty fresh.

Talk of potentially fighting Oleksandr Usyk for a World Heavyweight Title surprises no one (there were rumours he would take on Andy Ruiz Jr in an all-Mexican Heavyweight Title fight if Ruiz Jr had won his rematch with Anthony Joshua) and I honestly think there isn't a fighter in the world that Canelo would not WANT to take on.

He will be the Challenger this week, but there is no mistaking who the 'A Side' of the card is and I do think Canelo Alvarez will be a winner again.

This is arguably the most intriguing fight Canelo has had since the rematch with Gennady Golovkin and I don't think talk of a trilogy will be massively distracting either.

I know what everyone says about Canelo- some will talk about the PED suspension, some will say he has never beaten Golovkin (I had them at 1-1 for what it's worth), while others still will talk about 'cherry picking' his opponents. Canelo has gotten in a position to be able to choose who he fights and knows he will make millions doing so, but Dmitry Bivol is a live opponent.

It is harsh to suggest his opponents since the rematch with Golovkin have not been live- they were a combined 195-8-1 between them and outside of Rocky Fielding and Avni Yildirim, all for legit current or former World Champions. This is also the third unbeaten opponent he has taken on in a row and the second in succession who has been naturally bigger than him.

At some point Canelo needs to be given credit by all.

After all that, I actually think this is the toughest fight he has taken on in some time.

Dmitry Bivol may not have the flashy style and he has been guilty of perhaps coasting in fights instead of putting the foot down and finishing off opponents. I've been critical of his approach when it has felt like Bivol is clear and hurting his opponent, but he keeps winning.

This time last year he did have an awkward and closer than expected win over Craig Richards, but the deserved victory over Joe Smith Jr has been franked by how well the latter has done to become a World Champion in his own right.

I think he is a tough fighter and I do think Dmitry Bivol will have his moments of success, but Knocking Out Canelo looks a tall task at the moment.

With that in mind, I am not sure how Bivol can win this fight- he certainly won't earn any favours on the cards, and his cautious approach won't be nearly as eye-catching as the shots Canelo is likely to land.

The main question for me is whether Canelo Alvarez can stop him.

I think he does hit hard, but Bivol is a good operator and my feeling is he can stay out of trouble longer than Sergey Kovalev who lasted Eleven Rounds before being dropped hard by Alvarez. That was a faded Kovalev and one who had almost been stopped by Anthony Yarde, but Dmitry Bivol is fresher and should be able to ride the Rounds out even if he feels he is well behind.

A Callum Smith style end to the fight would not surprise me with Dmitry Bivol seeing it as a success to become the first to last the distance with Canelo Alvarez since December 2020.

He definitely deserves more respect than he is getting, but that inability to move into gear three or four is a concern and that is why I feel the end is going to look like Dmitry Bivol is happy getting to the cards.

The early Rounds should also be plenty competitive, but I think Canelo Alvarez will get all the 'oohs' and 'aahs' from the crowd with his output against the less flashy, straight-forward Champion and he will win by a 116/112, 117/111 margin before moving on to a potential date with Gennady Golovkin in September.


Onto the undercard.

I was really looking forward to Filip Hrgovic taking the next step in his career in a hugely influential spot on the this card in Las Vegas, but it is sad to hear he has withdrawn as he deals with the passing of his father.

Family comes first always, and the fight with Zhilei Zhang has been pushed back with the IBF Mandatory spot on the line.

The late withdrawal has meant Zhang will still head to the ring and I expect the big man to have his own way with late notice Scott Alexander.

It has been a year since we last saw the veteran American and his record has nothing of note on it- the only boost for fans of Zhilei Zhang would be in becoming the first man to stop Alexander.

He is very fortunate to have an unbeaten record having run out of gas very early against Jerry Forrest, but Zhilei Zhang was back in another early win last November and I expect the 39 year old to have an early night here. Zhilei Zhang needed just Two Rounds to beat Craig Lewis, and I expect he will produce a showcase win here before he has to fight Hrgovic when I expect the career to be ended in brutal fashion.

I am also expecting Marc Castro to get back to winning fights with the big stoppage after his scare, while both Shakhram Giyasov and Montana Love should be able to win their fights inside the distance on a big time card.

Those will all just push these fighters forward in the eyes of the fans tuning in for the early action before the big star enters for his bout.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Zhilei Zhang Win Between 1-5 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Marc Castro Win Between 1-4 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Shakhram Giyasov to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Montana Love to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2022: 10-13, + 16.52 Units (42 Units Staked, + 39.33% Yield)

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