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Wednesday, 25 May 2022

French Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2022 (May 25th)

Tuesday at the French Open was filled with emotion after Jo-Wilfred Tsonga called time on what has been a very successful career as the leading French men's player for a long time.

In an era outside of the one we are seeing, Jo-Wilfred Tsonga would likely have won at least one Grand Slam title, but his talent still managed to shine through with wins over Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal and on the biggest stages in Grand Slam events. It wasn't enough to win a Slam, but he did reach the Final in Australia and had deep runs in all of the other events to underline how good he could be on his best day.

Jo-Wilfred Tsonga also appealed to the fans with his charisma and was very approachable and appreciative of the fans and he will be someone that is missed on the Tour.


While one Frenchman was calling time on his career, at the time of writing Gilles Simon is hoping to prolong his own. Gael Monfils misses the tournament with an injury, while Richard Gasquet has made it through to the Second Round as the era of the Four Musketeers looks to be ending.

Other home hopes have managed to move through the draw, but there is a void to be filled at the top of French tennis on both the ATP and WTA Tours and the fans will be hoping some of the fresher faces can begin to come through, It won't ever be easy to see those players break through, but French Tennis has long produced talented players and there is little doubt they will again.


It has been a tough opening for the Tennis Picks, but I have also been very close to having a number of winners on the board. The Stefanos Tsitsipas failure to cover on Day 3 really hurt when you think of all the break points he missed in key games, including two match points on second serve when it looked like he may edge to the cover.

That alone would have swung the totals after the First Round, but it was not to be and I remain a little frustrated with some of the results being returned.

The Second Round begins on Wednesday and I am looking for the start of a much more positive remainder of the tournament.


Rafael Nadal - 10.5 games v Corentin Moutet: All credit has to be given to Corentin Moutet for coming from a set down to beat a former French Open Champion in the First Round, but now he has to take on the very best in the Second Round. The win over Stan Wawrinka will have given him confidence and Corentin Moutet is playing in the Night Session at the French Open with the home fans likely to get firmly behind him.

However, it has to be said that a win over Wawrinka is one thing, but beating Rafael Nadal on this court is a monster challenge for any player on the Tour. While Stan Wawrinka is working his way back into top form, Rafael Nadal is about as healthy as he feels he can be going into the French Open and his title win at the Australian Open underlines how well Nadal is still playing.

The foot injury is one of concern and you do have to wonder if that potentially flares up at any moment, but the match up in this Second Round looks a really good one for someone as intense as Rafael Nadal. He dominated Jordan Thompson in the First Round and won comfortably, while the feeling is that Corentin Moutet doesn't have the firepower to really keep the Spaniard at bay.

Before this tournament began, Corentin Moutet has not played much tennis on the clay court as he has dealt with an injury of his own. He has only held 67% of service games played in those matches and even a limited returner like Stan Wawrinka had considerable success against the Moutet serve, which does not bode well against someone like Rafael Nadal.

Anything other than a Rafael Nadal win will be a huge, huge surprise, but the question is whether he has enough to cover what is a wide handicap mark. The Rafael Nadal serve will determine that and is someone who can look after this side of his game very well on the clay courts, although you have to respect the fact that Corentin Moutet's strength is his returning side of his game.

Rafael Nadal is going to need to break serve at a very high rate to cover this mark, but he has shown he is capable of getting on a roll on the clay courts and there is very little let up from Nadal when he has an opponent down. With the injury he is dealing with on a daily basis, Rafael Nadal is not going to want to hang around in the early Rounds of the French Open if possible and I think that focus all helps against an opponent who is going to have to work extremely hard to win each and every point to be played.

Some players have the power to at least hit enough winners to get through games, but Corentin Moutet does not seem to possess that and I think it will lead to a relatively routine win for one of the favourites to win the title.


Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 games v Borna Coric: A couple of years ago this could have been a match that would have taken place in the second week of a Grand Slam and I think the odds would have been much closer between Grigor Dimitrov and Borna Coric.

Things are a little different going into the French Open.

Borna Coric has been struggling with injury over the last several months and has only recently returned to the Tour. It has been a tough slog for him as he has won just one of the seven matches played before beating Carlos Taberner in the First Round, that also being the first match that Borna Coric has won on the clay courts this season too.

He has been competitive and that has to be respected- the Croatian had won a set in each of the four losses suffered on the clay courts before the French Open and Borna Coric had played three top 100 Ranked opponents in that time. I expect Borna Coric to be competitive in this one too, but he has struggled with his return and may be facing a confident Grigor Dimitrov who has had a really strong clay season and who crushed Marcos Giron in the First Round.

Grigor Dimitrov impressed in that win, but he is also now 9-1 on the clay courts when playing anyone not named Stefanos Tsitsipas. His numbers have been very impressive in those matches with the Bulgarian holding 81% of service games played, but really getting to grips with the return of serve as Grigor Dimitrov has broken in 32% of return games played.

I expect him to put some pressure on the Coric serve and Grigor Dimitrov should be able to find the breaks of serve to be in a position to cover what would have been considered a massive spread even eighteen months ago. It won't always be easy in the match and I think Dimitrov is going to have to play with clear focus and not allow Borna Coric to build any confidence, but Grigor Dimitrov is playing well enough to think that can happen.

Even if he drops a set, I think this is a mark that can be covered by Grigor Dimitrov in a three or four set win in the Second Round. Borna Coric is a very talented player, one who will be back amongst the top players in the months and years ahead, but this match may come too soon and Dimitrov can earn his place in the Third Round on Friday.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 10.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pablo Cuevas - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sebastian Korda - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jil Teichmann - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cori Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kaia Kanepi - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Camilia Osorio - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

French Open Update: 16-16, - 3.14 Units (64 Units Staked, - 4.91% Yield)

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