After some ups and downs through the First Round of the French Open as far as the Tennis Picks have gone, I have to be much happier with the efforts on Day 4 with 66% of the selections returning as winners.
Even then, I do feel this tournament has already given me far too many 'what might have been' moments with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal both being in a position to cover, but failing to do so on Wednesday. They won their matches, but late breaks of serve were given away and both missed a cover by a game, a day after Stefanos Tsitsipas missed Match Points to cover in his own win.
None of those players are going to care, but it is frustrating with those three results making the difference between a solid start and a great start to the French Open.
It was a fascinating day at Roland Garros for the fans though and the Second Round epics that Alexander Zverev and Carlos Alcaraz had to win will be long remembered by those who watched on.
Both managed to win in five tough sets, but you do have to wonder what kind of impact that will have later in the tournament. It is vital for both to try and get through the Third Round matches as easily as possible, although the expectation is that the challenges should be getting more difficult the deeper you go in any tournament.
'Upsets' continued in the Women's draw and some big names and high Seeds dropped out on Wednesday, but the tournament looks to be warming up nicely.
On Day 5, the remainder of the Second Round is completed as the Men's bottom half and the Women's top half of the draws take to the court. There are some more good looking matches to be played and I would not be surprised if we witness more drama before all is said and done.
It will also be the first Night Session on Chatrier that features a Women's match, but that honour being given to a home favourite should help appease anyone who feels they may be getting short-changed after the Men's best of five set matches had previously been selected for that showing.
After a solid Day 4, I am looking to keep the momentum going with the following selections.
Pedro Cachin v Hugo Gaston: Being a Lucky Loser and entering the main draw of a Grand Slam has to make any player feel like they are playing with 'house money' and Pedro Cachin is about to reach a new career high World Ranking at the end of the tournament in Paris. He was a four set winner in the First Round against a fellow Qualifier, but the Argentinian will know that there are much bigger tests to come.
The match up in the Second Round may not be one of massive concern for Pedro Cachin, but he has to be in control of his emotions as he plays on a major court. The fact that he is playing a French player means Pedro Cachin is going to have to deal with the crowd as much as the opponent, but I still think he can be backed to oust Hugo Gaston.
The First Round was a topsy-turvy, emotional rollercoaster for Hugo Gaston who had not been in good form going into the French Open. He looked down and out in the Fifth Set having dropped the Fourth Set to Alex De Minaur without winning a game and being a break down in the decider, but Hugo Gaston used the emotion of the crowd to rally and come through a Super Tie-Breaker to earn the victory.
Spending a minute shy of four hours on court and having to come through an emotional last Set is going to be a big challenge for Hugo Gaston to overcome, even with a day off between matches. The win over Alex De Minaur has come against someone who is perhaps not his most comfortable on the clay courts, but that is not the case when facing Pedro Cachin and I expect Hugo Gaston to have to deal with a lot more issues in this one.
Fatigue could be a factor, while you cannot ignore how well Pedro Cachin had been playing on the Challenger Tour in the lead up to the French Open. He will be disappointed in needing a Lucky Loser spot in the main draw, but I do feel Cachin can make use of that as long as he continues serving to the level he has displayed in 2022.
Hugo Gaston had lost four matches in a row on the clay courts before the win in the First Round, but all the effort and emotion needed may see him come up short in the Second Round.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Laslo Djere: It is hard to really gauge where Daniil Medvedev is with his tennis after his First Round win over a player who has admitted he was struggling with a calf injury. The World Number 2 did what he needed to and won very, very easily, but this Second Round match is a much tougher challenge for him to deal with.
In previous years Daniil Medvedev has made it clear that he is not the biggest fan of the clay courts, but he reached the Quarter Final at the French Open twelve months ago and has been in much more positive mood about the surface having produced such a strong run.
The loss last week in Geneva is a blow, but Daniil Medvedev has felt like his hernia procedure has been a success and I do think he has the kind of tennis that can be very dangerous on this surface. Daniil Medvedev is a very strong return player on all surfaces, but he also has a huge serve that can set up the short ball on the clay court and I think he is more than capable of winning this match.
However, Medvedev will have to give Laslo Djere a lot of respect with the Serb very comfortable on the clay courts and produced plenty of wins on the surface in the lead up to the French Open. He was barely pushed in the First Round, while Laslo Djere has taken on and been very competitive in clay court matches against Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic this season.
Laslo Djere has used his serve to good effect in those two matches against top five Ranked players, but he has struggled with the return and I think that is where Daniil Medvedev can edge past a tough opponent. He held 89% of his service games against Tsitsipas and Djokovic, which is considerably higher than his overall numbers on the clay in 2022, but Laslo Djere has only broken in 14% of return games played.
That mark is way down on the breaks in 26% of return games played on the red dirt in 2022 and it has been a problem for Laslo Djere whenever he has played against top 10 Ranked opponents on the Tour.
As long as Daniil Medvedev is feeling good on serve, I think he will have enough to beat what may be considered another clay court specialist. Laslo Djere is much healthier than Facundo Bagnis was in the First Round so I expect this to be much more competitive, but I think Medvedev can get the job done in three or, more likely, four sets.
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 games v Federico Delbonis: There are times on the Tour when a player just needs a win to turn things around, but it is a big ask to expect Federico Delbonis to back up the First Round success over Adrian Mannarino. The clay court season would usually expect to be a very positive time of the season for the left hander, but Federico Delbonis has been struggling for confidence since the Tour moved to the European clay courts.
Like many players from South America, Federico Delbonis enjoyed the Golden Swing on the clay courts in his part of the world following the Australian Open, but it has been a different story of late. Before the French Open began, the Argentine had produced a 2-6 record on the red dirt and his numbers have been hard to take.
Federico Delbonis has been holding just 63% of the service games played in those eight matches, while he has broken in 20% of return games and it has led to some one-sided defeats. All of those losses have come against top 100 Ranked players and the only wins have been against opponents outside of those spots, while the numbers dip to 52% of service games held and 14% of return games with a break of serve when only considering Federico Delbonis' matches against top 50 Ranked opponents.
In saying all that, he did win well in the First Round and came through a couple of wobbles and Andrey Rublev may not yet be the most comfortable on the clay courts.
Even then, I think the Russian player is going to have enough to see off an opponent he beat in four sets at Wimbledon last year and Andrey Rublev was a pretty impressive First Round winner. He has also won a title on the clay courts in Belgrade where he thumped Novak Djokovic in the Final and Rublev has a big game that can see him hit through the court, even on the clay.
Andrey Rublev did suffer a really disappointing loss in Rome, and he has yet to have a really good run at the French Open when it is played in May. The Quarter Final appearance at Roland Garros came in 2020 when the tournament was moved to the Autumn, but Andrey Rublev should have the confidence to break down the Federico Delbonis game, especially if the lower Ranked player is still suffering with his belief on the tennis court.
With an aggressive return of serve, I think Rublev will do enough to cover the handicap mark.
David Goffin - 1.5 sets v Frances Tiafoe: After reaching the Final in Estoril, Frances Tiafoe has to feel his game is good enough to have an impact on the clay courts, although the numbers have remained pretty average on the surface. I do think there is a quality player in Frances Tiafoe and on his day he can be very tough to beat, but he will have to raise his level from the First Round if he is going to back up his first win at Roland Garros with another.
He played well in the First Round, but Frances Tiafoe is a player that has been able to hold 76% of service games played and broken in 22% of return games on the clay courts in the run to the French Open. Those are numbers that are not going to raise too many eyebrows and he is now going to be facing someone who has enjoyed playing on the clay courts throughout his career and who has won a title on the surface this season.
David Goffin played well in the First Round too, but he had the tougher match on paper compared with Frances Tiafoe and I think the Belgian was a touch more certain with his tennis. A loss to Jenson Brooksby in Rome is a worrying one, but David Goffin has put together a solid 12-4 record on the clay courts this season and is a comfortable player on the surface.
The numbers have been more solid than Frances Tiafoe's with David Goffin holding in 80% of service games played and backing that up with an impressive break rate of 29%.
I do have to say that the serve can be vulnerable at times and Frances Tiafoe is going to make Goffin work for all he gets. An athletic player who has very strong movement around the court is going to make David Goffin work for his points, but I do think the general comfortableness of the Belgian gives him an edge on this surface.
They have not played one another since 2019 so there will be a touch of unfamiliarity for both, but David Goffin did win the first three matches between these two before Frances Tiafoe got the better of him in Miami. All of those matches were on hard courts too and I think the clay courts favour David Goffin a little more as I look for the narrow favourite to come through in three or four sets in this Second Round match.
Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: Both of these players had to battle past French opponents in the First Round and neither Casper Ruud nor Emil Ruusuvuori had things all their own way.
Casper Ruud needed four sets to eventually see off Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, the leading name in French tennis who was going to retire at the end of this tournament regardless of when it ended. Playing the opponent and the crowd was tough for Casper Ruud, but he did it make it through in four sets and that could stand him in good stead for the remainder of the French Open in the weaker half of the Men's draw.
His opponent needed one more set to beat Ugo Humbert in the First Round, but Emil Ruusuvuori will have picked up some confidence having come from 1-2 down in that match. By the end of the match it felt like Emil Ruusuvuori had completely broken the resistance, but it will be tough for a young, inexperienced player to be able to pick himself and prepare in the manner needed to take on an opponent who will be considered a strong favourite to beat him.
That isn't a surprise when you think of the clay court successes Casper Ruud has had compared with Emil Ruusuvuori, and the numbers on the surface have largely backed that up. The Casper Ruud serve in particularly looks like it could be the key difference maker in the match and it proved to be just about good enough to keep Jo-Wilfred Tsonga at bay in the First Round.
The higher Ranked player has a considerable edge when it comes to protecting the serve on the clay courts, while Emil Ruusuvuori's return numbers do fall more in line with Casper Ruud's when only considering his clay court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents. With the superior serve, I do think Casper Ruud can beat this opponent again.
He beat him at the US Open in 2021, although that match ended prematurely with Casper Ruud leading 2-0 in sets, while the Norwegian was a much more comfortable winner over Emil Ruusuvuori when these two met in Barcelona on the clay courts. That match was played last month and I do think it is telling that Casper Ruud has held 95% of the service games played against Ruusuvuori compared with 60% for the latter.
While he has not been returning as well as he would have liked on the clay courts in 2022, Casper Ruud still has a significant edge in this Second Round match. He should be less fatigued off the two, despite the emotions that were involved in the win over Jo-Wilfred Tsonga, and I think the match up has been a good one for Casper Ruud who can win well on the scoreboard when all is said and done.
MY PICKS: Pedro Cachin @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 7.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.37 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Cristian Garin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Joao Sousa + 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Aleksandra Krunic + 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anhelina Kalinina + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Danielle Collins - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update: 26-21, + 5.12 Units (94 Units Staked, + 5.47% Yield)
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