NBA PlayOffs 2022- Conference Semi Final Game 5-7
There have been plenty of ups and downs in the Conference Semi Final Series in the NBA PlayOffs in 2022 and we are already set for a couple of those going very deep into the best of seven.
I've not had a very good run with my NBA Picks over the course of this Round, but there is time to right the ship before the Conference Finals and, ultimately, the NBA Finals.
Tuesday 10th May
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Game 5 Pick: Home advantage is always very important in the NBA PlayOffs and it has been particularly important in this Conference Semi Final Series with all four games won by the home team. At 2-2, the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers are now involved in a best of three to earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it does feel like the 76ers have all the momentum having won Games 3 and 4 at home with a returning Joel Embiid offering a big boost.
There has been much to like about the way the Philadelphia 76ers have played in their two home games and the bigger adjustments have to be made by the Miami Heat.
Kyle Lowry has not really performed as they would have liked and there is a serious doubt that he will be on the court for Game 5, while the Miami Heat have hit just 14/65 from three point range in the last two games in the Series combined. Barring Game 2, the Heat have had a real issue finding their consistency from the three point line and it has been exposed by the Philadelphia 76ers who have to be credited for hitting 48% of their shots from that distance in both Game 3 and Game 4.
Having Joel Embiid means the shooters are perhaps finding more spaces to exploit the three point shot and it is perhaps no surprise that the 76ers struggled with their long range shots in the first two games in the Series. The question for the players is whether they can keep the momentum going in a much more hostile atmosphere than playing at home will have been, but it will be encouraging for Doc Rivers and the team that different players have stepped up to find their rhythm.
It makes the 76ers very dangerous, especially if the Miami Heat cannot find one or two players to step up and give Jimmy Butler the support he needs. Things may all begin on how much better the Miami Heat can shoot the ball from the three point arc considering the number of shots taken from the distance, and over the course of the season the Heat have been better than they have shown through much of this Series.
I certainly do think playing at home will be a boost for the Miami Heat and it will be tough for the Philadelphia 76ers to be as efficient on the road as they have been at home.
The Heat have proven to have a little too much for the Philadelphia 76ers when playing them at home and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight here against this opponent.
There were enough adjustments made in Game 4 to still feel the Miami Heat can bounce back and I do think it will be easier for their players to find their groove inside their own Arena. Miami have been a strong home favourite to back and the 76ers have a 2-8 record against the spread in their last ten on the road.
Teams who have been beaten in Game 4 of the Conference Semi Final Round have bounced back to produce a 14-6 record against the spread when beaten by 7 or more points like the Heat have been. The three point shooting of the 76ers has been the reason they have been able to win the last couple of games in the Series, but if that slips back even slightly on the road, I do think the Miami Heat can take advantage and bounce back from a couple of tough outings.
Erik Spoelstra is one of the top Coaches in the NBA and I think he will make the adjustments needed again to make sure the Miami Heat are in a position to at least head to Philadelphia one more time needing one more win to secure passage to the Conference Finals.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Game 5 Pick: You have to wonder if some of the goings on in the stands affected the Chris Paul concentration in Game 4 as the veteran ended up with more fouls than points in another really poor effort.
A fan in the stands was accused of pushing both Chris Paul's wife and mother and he was clearly irate when said fan was ejected from the Arena. Even after the game Chris Paul made his feelings clear and it is understandable that players will react in that manner when they feel fans have crossed the line, but I also think it may have been an issue for Paul in concentrating on his job.
In Game 5 the Phoenix Suns are returning home where they may feel they will get more rub from the officials, while Head Coach Monty Williams admitted he made mistakes by keeping Chris Paul in the game when the fouls were racking up. The rest of the Suns were not quite able to make up for the absence of Paul and ultimately the Dallas Mavericks were able to keep Phoenix at arm's distance throughout Game 4 to square up the Conference Semi Final Series at 2-2.
Dallas struggled to get much out of anyone not named Luka Doncic in the first two games in the Series as they fell into a 2-0 deficit, but they have been much better at home. The three point shooting has been pretty scary for the Suns to deal with and they are struggling to make the adjustments and decide whether they are going to double Doncic and leave open shooters, or believe those shooters will eventually turn cold and it is better to prevent Luka Doncic from taking over games.
It was a balance the Suns struggled with in Game 4, while they had another below average shooting day. That has given the Dallas Mavericks confidence to believe in the Defensive performances they have been able to put together in the last couple of games, but taking that on the road is the real challenge for the Number 4 Seed.
I expect the wins at home will at least have Dallas believing more than they may have done and the key for the Mavericks is to keep the three point shooting connecting at a high rate. I simply don't know if that is possible for them on the road and the Phoenix Suns have to think that Chris Paul cannot have three consecutive shocking games in succession.
Phoenix have been better at home and they will feel they can become the latest team to lose by 7 or more points in Game 4 and bounce back with a cover in Game 5 in this Round of the PlayOffs.
Number 4 Seeds set as the underdog have struggled to cover in the Conference Semi Final Series and the Suns have covered in both games against the Mavericks in this Series. I expect this to be much more like Game 1 rather than Game 2 and that means a close game coming down to the wire, but the Suns can find the late plays through Chris Paul's playmaking ability to get into a position to take a 3-2 lead in this Series with a cover at the window.
Wednesday 11th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: After the Boston Celtics won Game 4 to level this Conference Semi Final Series at 2-2, we have yet to see either of these teams really take control of the momentum by winning two in a row. The Milwaukee Bucks have twice led the Series and the defending Champions won't have panicked after dropping the last one, but it has felt like much more has depended on the Boston Celtics.
This is a team that has perhaps leaned on the jumpers a little too much and that can be tough to produce on a night by night basis when you put the Celtics up against the strong Milwaukee Defensive schemes. The Celtics have also been looking at their role players and hoping to find one who can perhaps heat up and help them push past the defending Champions.
Al Horford had a career best PlayOff performance in Game 4 and he was key to the Boston fightback in the Fourth Quarter which saw them edge past the Milwaukee Bucks on the road. It was not a perfect performance and the Celtics will be disappointed with some of the officiating that meant the Bucks were given a lot more fouls than Boston were and that helped keep Milwaukee going when the Offensive side of the court became a little stagnant.
As mentioned, the jumpers can become a little erratic on a night by night basis and it is telling that Boston have hit at least 48% from the field in their two wins, but 37% or worse in the two losses. The Celtics have not gotten a full control of their three point shooting and it does make it hard to back them to cover a big spread like this one against a quality team like the Milwaukee Bucks who have been very good on the Defensive side of the court.
Khris Middleton remains on the sidelines and that has hurt Milwaukee on the Offensive side of the court- their shooting has been steadier than the Boston Celtics, but the Bucks have struggled to find someone to complement Giannis Antetokounmpo on a nightly basis and the 47% shooting in Game 2 has been the exception rather than the rule for Milwaukee.
The Bucks have not been better than 41% from the field in the other three games, although they have not dipped below 40% in any game in the Series either. Since Game 1, Milwaukee have struggled for the consistency needed with their three point shooting and I do think the Boston intensity on the Defensive side of the court will ultimately make the difference between the teams.
Covering this mark won't be easy with the adjustments that the Bucks are likely to make, but I will go back to the same play that returned a winner in Game 3 and that is backing this game to finish below the total points line. The oddsmakers have moved that total after the first over in the Series in Game 4, but I think the two teams have been very strong Defensively and with the tension of a Game 5, I do think both will want to be stronger on this side of the court to lay the foundation for success.
Being without Khris Middleton has really hurt the Milwaukee Bucks Offensive output and I think this is a game that will head under the total points line with very little between the defending Champions and the Boston Celtics.
Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Pick: No Ja Morant did not prevent the Memphis Grizzlies from rallying together and heading into the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 of this Conference Semi Final Series with a big lead behind them. However, it was the absence of Morant which really showed up with a close game on the line and the Grizzlies were undone in the final minutes as they slipped to 3-1 down in this Series.
It sounds like Ja Morant is not just absent for Game 5 of this Series, but he is likely going to have sit out the remainder of the PlayOffs regardless of how far the Memphis Grizzlies can go. The injury came late in the blowout in Game 3 and would have really hurt the Grizzlies as they question why Morant was still on the court, but Dillon Brooks played hard in Game 4 and they are returning home.
Unfortunately for Memphis, it is unlikely that the Golden State Warriors are as poor Offensively as they were in Game 4 and it will be very difficult to keep up with them in this elimination game for the home team.
After a historical PlayOff shooting effort in Game 3, Golden State came back down to earth with a bump in Game 4 with just 40% of field goals made and 24% made from three point range. Late efforts papered over the early cracks and the 3-1 lead is what matters most, but Steph Curry admitted his team came out without the intensity they needed and a poor start almost spiralled out of control.
Those late efforts give the Warriors the chance to close out the Series on Wednesday, but the entire team will know how tough it is to play on the road. While that Game 3 win is one that could have broken the back of the Memphis Grizzlies without their best player, the Warriors have to play with more focus from the off as they look to first quieten the crowd and then push on to secure a place back in the Western Conference Finals.
Road favourites have struggled massively in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons- those teams are now 3-12 against the spread since 2019 and that includes all four in that spot failing to cover this season. Two of those were the Golden State Warriors, but the Memphis Grizzlies are not going to have their closer in this one and I do not expect the Warriors to have as poor a shooting day as they did in Game 4.
Even then they managed to do enough to win thanks to the strong Defensive schemes they are playing with, while this time they are prepared to go into battle without Head Coach Steve Kerr who is isolating having tested positive for Covid. The Golden State Warriors should be more prepared all around and I am not sure the Grizzlies have the shooting power to keep up with the Warriors in this one.
I am surprised that Ja Morant has only added 1.5 points to the spread compared with Game 1 and Game 2 here.
Memphis will play hard, but ultimately I am not sure they have the shooting to keep up, while road teams are 15-7 against the spread following a game decided by 1-3 points.
Favourites had not been performing that well in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, but both Miami and Phoenix covered in that spot already in 2022.
Number 2 Seeds have also struggled to handle the closeout situations in recent times too and I just think the Memphis Grizzlies cannot expect another below par shooting day from the Golden State Warriors here.
Thursday 12th May
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: Home court has proven to be decisive throughout this Conference Semi Final Series and all five games have been won by that team. All five games have been won in pretty dominant fashion too, although there is a different kind of pressure on the Philadelphia 76ers when they host Game 6 as they look to stave off elimination.
Make no mistake about it, everything the 76ers have done this season is to make sure they could be ready to win a NBA Championship and so a Conference Semi Final loss will leave many scratching their heads and asking serious questions. Head Coach Doc Rivers knows how much his personal reputation will be dented if the 76ers are eliminated and that does put some pressure on everyone looking to take this Series back to South Beach for a Game 7 this weekend.
The Miami Heat may not have won in either game played here in the Series, but they blew out the 76ers in Game 5 and have to feel the momentum is behind them. There is still some room for improvement as far as the three point efficiency is concerned, but Miami will feel happy with their overall performance as they looked after the ball much better than have been.
A team effort saw the Heat win big, but playing on the road is much tougher and Philadelphia have shown that their role players have been able to step up when playing at home. Both Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green are looking for bounce back efforts, while Joel Embiid is being pushed as much as possible to try and give the 76ers a chance.
I do expect both teams to be pretty well rested with the benches employed early in the Fourth Quarter and I think there is very little between them.
Much may come down to which of the lesser names on the court are able to step up and drain some three pointers, but the layers are giving nothing away with the spread. The 76ers look appealing having won both home games, but the pressure will feel different now and it can be hard to trust the likes of Maxey and Green in such an important game.
Being at home will make it more comfortable for them and I do think this could be the latest game in the Series to end above the total line set. Miami have not shot the ball as well as they have liked, but they have scored at least 106 points in four of the five games completed in the Series, while the 76ers are averaging over 107 points in their two games played at home.
The Series has been on a run of playing every other day and you do have to wonder if that leads to some tiredness that makes it harder on the Defensive side of the court. We have not yet seen both teams shooting at a very good clip at the same time, but I think this is a game in which both will be better than they were in Game 5 and that could see them get to a point where they can cover this totals line set.
Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks Game 6 Pick: Being back home helped the Phoenix Suns move back ahead in this Conference Semi Final Series and it is another that is at 3-2 with all five games being won by the home team. The Suns now have to return to the Dallas Mavericks with the first of what could be two opportunities to secure another place in the Western Conference Finals, but they have already experienced how tough it can be to win a game here.
The Mavericks have taken advantage of two poor road performances from Chris Paul to beat the Number 1 Seeded Suns twice at home, but the veteran wasn't much better in Game 5. At least he was able to stay in the game this time, but Chris Paul only put up 7 points and it was the young Phoenix core that came through with a big Third Quarter to take the game away from the Dallas Mavericks.
Things are always much harder on the road, while the Dallas Mavericks have seen their role players produce much better at home. Those players struggled in Game 5, but Luka Doncic was clearly slighted by the way the game was played and I think he will be in a very dangerous mode as he looks to have an opportunity to play one more game in Phoenix.
With Doncic likely to be looking to be very aggressive in what has become another chippy Series, the Dallas role players and three point shooters are likely to have more spaces to exploit. The home crowd have also shown they can get behind their team and help them rally through any difficult moments and the three point shooters have avoided the long cold stretches that have proved costly on the road.
The game is back in Texas and I think that will make it much closer than the one we eventually saw in Game 5, but I do think the Phoenix Suns look to have put a couple of below par performances behind them. Chris Paul is important, but the Suns have shown they can win even when he has a poor game, but you have to imagine that CP3 is going to have one big performance in him, especially here on the road where his family were harassed in Game 4.
He will come out with a point to prove and his team have much more consistency about them than the Dallas Mavericks.
Road favourites are not easy to trust in the Conference Semi Final Series and the Phoenix Suns have struggled in their two games here as they have allowed Dallas to build momentum.
Turnovers and foul trouble have been a problem for the Suns, but you have to think this team have found a way to hit the reset button from a mental point of view. They are unlikely to blow the Dallas Mavericks away, especially here, but the Suns may feel there is more of an adjustment they can make compared with the Dallas Mavericks.
Phoenix may well look at themselves and blame their own mistakes on not being able to win at lest one of the two road games played in the Conference Semi Final Series. The Mavericks are clearly a team that play well at home and their role players can be more comfortable in the environment, but the Suns looked back to their best Defensively in the Game 5 win at home and I think they can back that up with a cover as the road favourite here.
Closing out a Series like this one is never easy, but I think the Phoenix Suns are the better team and may have found the right formula to secure their spot in the Western Conference Finals behind another cover.
Friday 13th May
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 6 Pick: A cold Fourth Quarter proved costly for the Boston Celtics who had a big lead whittled away and eventually saw them lose narrowly to the Milwaukee Bucks. It means the defending Champions have an opportunity to finally close the Conference Semi Final Series which has been going back and forth throughout, but ruling a line through the Boston Celtics is dangerous.
When you look at the Series as a whole, Milwaukee have been much more steady with their shooting, but the Boston Celtics have been strong from the field in the last couple of games. There was a slight drop in the three point shooting in Game 5 and that ultimately saw the Celtics fail to hold onto their big Fourth Quarter lead, but Boston have to be feeling comfortable with the looks they are getting against the Bucks Defensive schemes.
Milwaukee showed how good they can be in desperate moments of Game 5, while they dominated the boards with a big margin and those second chance points proved to be decisive. In previous games, it had been the Boston Celtics who had had the edge on the boards, but you do have to wonder if they are wearing down with little rest time between the Conference Semi Final games.
Three point shooting proved to be the key for the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 5 too and I do think they are going to need their role players to step up at home if they are going to avoid the drama of a Game 7 back in Boston. While they shot 43% from the field overall, the Milwaukee Bucks hit 45% of their three point shots and that is considerably better than the previous three showings in the Series.
There has not been much of an answer to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Series, but the rest of the team have to make sure they find their shots and I do think the Bucks were fortunate to come through with a win in Game 5. It will have dented the Boston Celtics confidence, but they will also feel they have let one slip as Boston head to Milwaukee trying to level the Series for a third time.
Underdogs in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Finals have been on a very good run and those were pushed further forward on Thursday. The Boston Celtics have already won on the road as an underdog in this Series and the consistency shown in their shooting over the last couple of games is encouraging, especially if they can drag the Bucks back from their three point output of Game 5.
Better positioning around the boards will also help and I think the Boston Celtics can force a Game 7 at the end of this one, the second of this Round.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors Game 6 Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have proved they can overcome the absence of their best player in Ja Morant and may feel they should have won both games played in this Series without him. After blowing a big lead in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4, the Memphis Grizzlies returned home 1-3 down in the Conference Semi Final Series, but responded in the best way.
An absolute crushing of the Golden State Warriors will have given this young Memphis team plenty of spring in their step as they head back to San Francisco with the sole goal of making sure the fans have a Game 7 to look forward to. The atmosphere in Game 5 was hugely important for the Grizzlies and they responded in the best way by opening up a stunning 55 point lead in the Third Quarter.
Once again they will be an underdog in the Series, but the Grizzlies have not allowed the oddsmakers to determine the kind of effort and intensity they want to show on the court. Losing Ja Morant is clearly a blow, but the other players on the roster are showing how much they are worth and it has shifted some of the pressure to the Golden State Warriors.
Experiencing difficult PlayOff moments will not be something new to the Warriors and they have a core of players who have won multiple Championships so they will believe they can weather the Memphis storm. Being back at home will help, but it should be noted that the Warriors have struggled with their three point shooting outside of the huge Game 3 win.
It was an issue for them again in Game 5 having hit just 24% of their efforts from the distance in the narrow Game 4 win and the Warriors will know they have to be better if they are going to avoid another upset loss. Being at home will be a help, without a doubt, but the three point shooting woes is more of a trend than an aberration at this point and it gives the Grizzlies every chance of keeping this one close.
Being an underdog in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series has clearly been working for those teams and the Memphis Grizzlies seem pretty clear with what they want to do at both ends of the court.
You do have to expect Memphis to cool off a little from the shooting display shown in Game 5, especially on the road, but they are playing well enough Defensively to believe this is enough points to be given to keep this one competitive. Of course you can never tell when the Golden State Warriors are going to suddenly find a hot streak of shooting to take a game away from any opponent, but I also have to respect the fact that the Grizzlies are now 21-6 straight up without Ja Morant in the line up.
Sunday 15th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: The First Round did not bring the NBA PlayOff drama the neutrals would have wanted, but the Conference Semi Final Series have been much different. All four of those Series have needed at least six games to determine a winner, while two of them are going the distance with a 'win or go home' situation for the four teams involved on Sunday.
First up is the Eastern Conference Series between the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks which has seen both teams well matched up.
The Milwaukee Bucks missed the chance to close out the Series on Friday when they were beaten at home in Game 6, but they have not been behind in the Semi Final and the defending Champions are plenty experienced. Even playing on the road is not a major issue for the Milwaukee Bucks who have won two of their three games at the TD Garden.
Being at home is obviously a positive, but the Boston Celtics will also be under pressure to deliver with the winner of this Game 7 likely to be the favourite to beat the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. This is a Celtics core that has arguably looked like being the best NBA team in the second half of the season so a Conference Semi Final Series defeat will really sting all associated with the team.
Jayson Tatum delivered the goods in Game 6, but he was well supported by the Boston shooters who managed to hit 40% of their shots from the three point range. They came out very hot from the distance and were able to find the big shots to shut down a number of rallies to eventually pull clear of the Bucks, but that three point shooting has not really been matched in the Series and I do wonder if it is sustainable, even for just one more game.
Once again the Milwaukee Bucks dominated the boards and you do have to believe they will keep things much closer if the Celtics are not able to be as efficient with their shooting as they were in Game 6.
Foul trouble for either team can swing the momentum very quickly, but the Milwaukee Bucks are experienced in handling big Game 7s in the post-season having beaten the Brooklyn Nets in that number of games on their way to winning the NBA Championship last season.
As it has been throughout the Series, the Milwaukee Bucks have been pretty steady with their shooting and are effectively hoping the Celtics will not be as hot as they were in Game 6. I have already said that I do feel the Boston approach is hard to sustain night by night, while the Bucks have been a little more settled with their approach, which may keep them close in this one as they look to take the lead for the fourth and final time in the Conference Semi Final Series.
It should be a competitive game and favourites have not had the best record when playing in Game 7 of the Conference Semi Finals.
The underdog has also been showing they are more than just a bark in this Series with those teams going 4-1-1 against the spread and I think the Milwaukee Bucks will be able to make enough plays to keep this one close, even if they are ultimately beaten by a strong Boston Celtics team.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Game 7 Pick: This has been a Series dominated by the home team and all of the six previous wins have been by relatively wide margins.
The Phoenix Suns might be the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference, but they have not been able to find the knock out blow against the upstart Dallas Mavericks and the latter will still believe despite their three road losses in the Series. A strong Game 6 win showed the Mavericks that they are still capable of beating the Suns, but the role players have not had the same impact on the road as they have had at home.
Chris Paul has not played well, but the Suns overall have been much more comfortable in home surroundings and the feeling is that it will make the difference again.
It is hard to trust them when you see some of the road performances and how well the Dallas Mavericks can shoot the ball, but they have not had the same impact on the road. In the three games played in Phoenix, the last two have ended up in blowout wins for the Suns who have used the energy of the crowd to pull clear in the Second Half of those wins.
Phoenix have been a team who have been able to get their own players performing with much more intensity at home and I think that will show up here.
It is a very big spread when you think of how Game 6 was played, but Phoenix showed how much stronger they can be at home having blown out the Dallas Mavericks following road losses in Game 3 and Game 4. That was a close game going into the Third Quarter, but the Suns consistency shown through and the Dallas role players did struggle to hit their shots as efficiently as they have managed in home comforts.
Teams coming off a win in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series have been strong in Game 7, while favourites have struggled to cover. Those are trends that favour the Dallas Mavericks, but they have lost all five games played in Phoenix this season by at least seven points each time.
Number 4 Seeds have been on a bad run as the underdog in the Conference Semi Final Series, but Dallas have overcome the odds twice already in this Series. In saying that, both of those have been at home and I do think the Phoenix Suns will just show why they were the top team in the Western Conference this season and find a way to win and cover.
MY PICKS: 10/05 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
10/05 Phoenix Suns - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
11/05 Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Under 214.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
11/05 Golden State Warriors - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
12/05 Philadelphia 76ers-Miami Heat Over 207 Total Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
12/05 Phoenix Suns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
13/05 Boston Celtics + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
13/05 Memphis Grizzlies + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
15/05 Milwaukee Bucks + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
15/05 Phoenix Suns - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Semi Final Update: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)
First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
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