A really frustrating day for the Tennis Picks reminded me why I do get frustrated when you have a week in which a number of players miss a cover by a small margin, especially those who have got to Match Point or get to serve for the match.
There was another couple of bad luck losses on Friday with Victoria Azarenka somehow failing to serve out the match at the end of the second and third set in a very tight loss.
Those moments would have made all the difference for the totals for the week, but a miserable Day 6 has sent the numbers spinning in the wrong direction.
Casper Ruud - 6.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: A much more comfortable win in the Second Round compared to the First should be good news for Casper Ruud who remains active in the weaker half of the men's draw. He is a solid clay courter, even though the numbers are down from last season, and the early issues that Stefanos Tsitsipas has faced should give Ruud further confidence as he bids to reach his first Grand Slam Final.
Things should get tougher in the Third Round, but I do make Casper Ruud a pretty strong favourite to beat Lorenzo Sonego, despite the Italian being happy on a surface he will be very used to playing on.
It has been pretty straight-forward progression for Casper Ruud, but Lorenzo Sonego has made even shorter work of the first two opponents he has faced in Paris. He has yet to drop a set, while only one of those has seen Lorenzo Sonego lose more than four games, although this is another step up in level for Sonego to deal with.
Prior to the tournament, Lorenzo Sonego had not been in the best form with four losses in five matches played on the European clay courts. Overall he has held 80% of the service games played on the clay this season and broken in 22%, but the break numbers have dipped during the European clay court swing and that has to be a concern in this Third Round match.
The way Casper Ruud is able to serve on the clay, I would make it very difficult for Lorenzo Sonego to really get into a lot of those games and that will put pressure on his own serve. It is a clay court so there will be chances of course, but Ruud has been playing well on this side of his tennis for the most part and the question is whether the Norwegian can do enough on the return.
Casper Ruud certainly returned more effectively in the Second Round than the First, while the head to head with Lorenzo Sonego should offer encouragement and confidence.
The higher Ranked player has won all three previous matches between these two, including beating Lorenzo Sonego in the Rome Masters on the clay. The overall numbers in those head to head matches show Casper Ruud is breaking in 30% of return games played, but that jumped to 44% in that sole clay court meeting in Rome.
At the same time, Casper Ruud has held 88% of his service games and even the 80% mark in the clay court match is a serious edge and one that should see Ruud come through with a good looking win in this Third Round meeting.
David Goffin v Hubert Hurkacz: This has already been the best run that Hubert Hurkacz has enjoyed at the French Open having been beaten in the First Round on his three previous visits to Paris, but the draw has been a kind one and there is a much bigger challenge ahead in the Third Round.
Wins over two players Ranked outside the top 100 had to be expected for the Polish player, while he is bidding to reach the second week of a Grand Slam for just the second time. That is a pressure of its own for a player Ranked inside the top 20 and who may be losing big Ranking points next month when Wimbledon is over (where Hubert Hurkacz reached the Semi Final last season).
As solid as the clay court season has been for Hubert Hurkacz, he has only beaten one top 50 Ranked opponent since the Monte Carlo Masters and now has to face a confident David Goffin who has moved through the last couple of Rounds in four sets each time. After winning a title on the clay earlier on the clay courts and with a battling loss against Rafael Nadal under his belt, I do think David Goffin is playing some solid red dirt tennis.
His numbers on the clay courts back that up prior to the French Open, although David Goffin has to have a respect for Hubert Hurkacz who has a big serve that can build scoreboard pressure.
However, David Goffin handled that very well in the Rome Masters where he beat Hubert Hurkacz in straight sets, albeit in two tie-breakers. The Belgian had the stronger serving numbers on the day with 68% of service points won compared with 65% for Hubert Hurkacz, while David Goffin also created one more break point on the day too.
I am expecting this one to be very close with the match decided by a couple of points here and there, but I do think David Goffin can be backed as the underdog. He is the better clay court player in general and the mental edge of having won that match in Rome should do him the world of good.
The French crowd have been firmly behind David Goffin and I do think that can play a part in the outcome of this match and the underdog can edge through to the second week.
Holger Rune - 5.5 games v Hugo Gaston: There was a moment in the Second Round win over Henri Laaksonen when Holger Rune took a bad tumble at the back of the court at a time he was leading by two sets and a break up. He looks to have escaped a serious injury and the youngster will be pleased with the way he backed up the upset win over Denis Shapovalov in the First Round.
The clay courts have long been a surface that Holger Rune will have favoured, but he has already shown enough to believe he can be very effective on the hard courts too.
So many believe Holger Rune is destined for the top of the men's game with the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic coming towards the end of their careers and being in the bottom half of the draw gives Rune a good chance to have a really good run here in Paris. The Dane has won a title on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open and he also enjoyed a strong run in Lyon last week.
The numbers produced on the clay courts certainly make it correct to have Holger Rune favoured in this Third Round match, but the inexperience could be a slight worry.
For starters he is playing in Paris where the home crowd are going to be firmly behind Hugo Gaston, who has surprisingly made it through to the Third Round at his home Slam after a poor set of results leading into the tournament. Being at home has inspired Hugo Gaston who has a unique style that can bamboozle opponents not used to seeing the tennis he produces and I think this is going to come down to how quickly Holger Rune gets to grips with the drop shots and volleys that Gaston will produce.
Dealing with the crowd is never easy in Paris, but I do think Holger Rune has the tennis to really put Hugo Gaston under pressure. The serve is still a work in progress so Gaston will have some chances, but I do think Holger Rune's 32% of return games ending in breaks on the clay courts before this tournament will mean the Frenchman has to fend off plenty of break points of his own.
Even if this match goes four sets, Holger Rune should have the opportunities to cover this big handicap mark and I think he will end the strong Hugo Gaston run in the Third Round.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 games v Mikael Ymer: There are some questions for Stefanos Tsitsipas to answer as he bids to reach the second week at Roland Garros once again and that is largely down to the previous two performances in the tournament being underwhelming to say the least.
He had to come from 2-0 down against Lorenzo Musetti and then surprisingly dropped a set to a Qualifier in the Second Round after being pushed much more than expected throughout the match. There has been some illness around the French Open so you do have to wonder if he is fully healthy, or another suggestion is that Stefanos Tsitsipas is not handling the pressure of being the favourite to come out of the bottom half of the draw.
Either way it has not been the opening two Rounds that the Greek player would have wanted or expected and Stefanos Tsitsipas will want to make much more serene progress in this Third Round.
The match up looks a good one against Mikael Ymer who had shown no form ahead of the French Open before winning two matches in Paris. The draws have not been bad, but the Swede also benefited from playing an ill Daniel Evans in the Second Round and even then had to come back from a break down in the pivotal third set before winning in four.
Without a doubt, Mikael Ymer is going to have to be at his very, very best in this one and also perhaps hope the Stefanos Tsitsipas of earlier in the tournament is on the court in the Third Round match too.
There is little to suggest Mikael Ymer can really compete having held just 58% of service games played on the clay courts before the French Open began. A limited Daniel Evans managed to get into those service games regularly until he wore down at the end, while Tsitsipas has really enjoyed facing this opponent on the Tour.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has won all three previous matches between himself and Mikael Ymer and that includes two wins at Grand Slam level. All of those have been on the hard courts and Stefanos Tsitsipas is a stronger player on the clay courts, while he has really been able to hurt the Ymer serve.
In those matches, Stefanos Tsitsipas has broken in 55% of return games played, which is a remarkable number, and I would anticipate him having plenty of break points on this surface. You also cannot ignore how hard Mikael Ymer has found it trying to get into the Stefanos Tsitsipas service game with breaks in just shy of 9% of return games and I think this could be the most straight-forward win that Tsitsipas has had in the tournament so far.
His return numbers are much better on the clay courts than the hard courts so the successes Stefanos Tsitsipas has had in returning the Mikael Ymer should really show up here.
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 games v Cristian Garin: The hard courts are clearly the favoured domain of Andrey Rublev, but this is a serious competitor and is a much improved player on the clay courts these days. Winning the French Open is still a huge ask, but Andrey Rublev has managed to reach the Quarter Final in Paris in one of his three visits with the other two both ending in the First Round.
Now he has a couple of wins under his belt, Andrey Rublev will be keen to return to the second week of this Grand Slam and the first time he has done that since Wimbledon having lost disappointingly in the Third Round at both the US Open and Australian Open. He has played well in the tournament, but Rublev has lost his focus a couple of times and that has meant needing four sets in the previous two Rounds.
This is another step up in level for Andrey Rublev too, but Cristian Garin has not been at 100% or so it feels in the lead to the French Open.
A clay court specialist, Cristian Garin showed signs of getting closer to his best at the Rome Masters and he has won his two matches in Paris in solid fashion against decent opponents in Tommy Paul and Ilya Ivashka. Those wins have to give the Chilean confidence to take into this Third Round match, but he was well beaten by Felix Auger-Aliassime and Alexander Zverev in clay events prior to the French Open.
Cristian Garin does have a vulnerable serve which can be exploited by someone as aggressive as Andrey Rublev, but the Garin return will be the key to the outcome of this match. If he can find a way to get into the Rublev service games and build pressure, this could be a competitive Third Round match, but it won't be easy against someone like the World Number 7 who has held 81% of his service games on the clay courts in 2022.
It has been a particularly dangerous weapon for Andrey Rublev when facing opponents that are not Ranked inside the top 20 and I think that will be the key to the outcome of the match.
The return has been effective too, but Andrey Rublev will have noted that two top 10 Ranked opponents that Cristian Garin has faced on the clay this season have held him to just 11% of return games with a break of serve. As long as he serves well here, Rublev will have his chances to break serve and I think this is a match he can win in three or four sets, which will give him every chance to cover the handicap set.
MY PICKS: Casper Ruud - 6.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Holger Rune - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 8.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paula Badosa - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 36-36, - 5.94 Units (144 Units Staked, - 4.13% Yield)
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