I have written before that I have needed some luck with my selections to pick up the results I have had, but that luck can turn against you at a moment's notice.
Bad Picks have largely been avoided, but that was not the case on Wednesday- Casper Ruud and Amanda Anisimova were poor selections all things considered, but I could not have seen Simona Halep playing as poorly as she did.
However, the Picks that have bothered me are the Alexander Zverev, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Stefanos Tsitsipas selections.
Alexander Zverev was leading 4-2 and had break points to move further ahead in the first set before losing four games in a row. He later missed a 0-40 position to earn a double break in the second set which would have given him a chance to cover against Marin Cilic, but ultimately won comfortably enough.
That loss hurt and was followed by Alejandro Davidovich Fokina somehow losing to Hubert Hurkacz- in his case he had break points in two games in the first set and couldn't convert either time before losing the set with the first break points faced.
Later he had moved ahead by a double break, but could not seal the second set without dropping his serve at 5-2 and that meant needing a break of serve in the final set. Again he could not hold onto serve.
Finally Stefanos Tsitsipas was winning 6-3, 3-1 and had a 0-40 situation... Of course that would wrap up the day with a failure to earn the double break and eventually cruise through the remainder of the win over Lucas Pouille in a 6-3, 6-4 win and another miss of the cover by half a game.
I couldn't believe the way the day went down and it is my worst one on the clay courts by a considerable distance.
Things can turn around, but I do think it is important to try and relax and focus on what you are doing.
Anything that could go wrong, went wrong on Wednesday, but those were selections which would usually have been much more likely to have covered than not. With that in mind I am disappointed, but I am also a realist and accept that the research wasn't wrong, but the luck was simply missing when players were not converting situations that had come up.
On Thursday there are a lot of matches scheduled to be out on the Madrid courts, and I would be extremely disappointed to have as a poor a day again.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: Both of these players were a part of the 'Big Four' of Men's Tennis a few years ago, but Andy Murray was not really able to keep up with the consistency of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. He was still a player that has been involved in Finals against all of those top players of the Tour and the fact of the matter is that this is the thirty-seventh time Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray will be facing one another on the Tour.
While Andy Murray is trying to regain some of the form and consistency he once displayed on the Tour, Novak Djokovic is still the World Number 1.
However, Andy Murray has played more matches than Novak Djokovic in 2022 largely down to the unvaccinated path the latter has chosen and that does raise some questions as to how this match will develop. The British player was not supposed to play on the clay courts this season, but he has taken a Wild Card here in Madrid to get some more competitive tennis underneath him and Andy Murray has been a very strong winner in his two matches played.
Wins over Dominic Thiem, who is coming back from injury, and Denis Shapovalov means Andy Murray has won two matches in the same tournament for the first time since January. His level of performance in those wins has to be greatly respected, although Andy Murray has already admitted that this is a really tough match for him and will be a marker to see how far he is from really competing with the top players again.
Novak Djokovic reached the Final in Belgrade in the last tournament he has played and he was a very comfortable winner over Gael Monfils in the Second Round in Madrid. The lack of competitive tennis has meant Djokovic has been struggling with his own consistency and the serve has been particularly difficult for him with Novak Djokovic winning less than 60% of the points played behind serve on the clay courts.
He has also not returned as well as we have become used to seeing from Novak Djokovic, but the battling wins in Belgrade will stand him in good stead.
Matches between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have tended to be competitive, but the clay courts have given the Serb a little more of an edge.
I am expecting Murray to be inspired to show how much he still has in the tank, but Novak Djokovic will be comfortable with the match up too and my feeling is that the World Number 1 can build on the Second Round win. Novak Djokovic did win the Madrid Masters when he last played here and I do think he will be able to find enough quality returns to attack the Andy Murray second serve and eventually pull clear in this match, even while still looking to rediscover his very best form on the court.
Andy Murray had lost all five matches against top 20 Ranked opponents in 2022 before the win over Denis Shapovalov and he has found himself just wearing down against those opponents. Someone like Novak Djokovic is likely going to want to keep Andy Murray moving as much as possible and it could see fatigue wear down the former World Number 1 against a player that is looking like he will soon be finding his best on the court.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v David Goffin: He may have been watching his beloved Real Madrid produce a stunning comeback in the Champions League Semi Final on Wednesday, but Rafael Nadal has been producing plenty of his own over the last twelve months. An injury layoff saw the Spaniard return and win the Australian Open earlier this season, while Rafael Nadal has returned to the Tour in Madrid having been missing since reaching the Indian Wells Final.
The rib injury did not seem to be bothering Rafael Nadal too much in his Second Round win over Miomir Kecmanovic and it was an impressive return against an in-form opponent.
He may feel he has to raise his level again in the Third Round when Nadal takes on David Goffin who has won a couple of Qualifiers and then followed that up with a couple more wins in the main draw of the Madrid Masters. After a couple of really underwhelming years on the clay courts, David Goffin has already won a title on the surface in 2022 and the wins being stung together will have given him a lot of confidence.
As much as you have to respect any Qualifier that has won four matches in a row and clearly enjoying the conditions at the event, David Goffin has not faced anyone of the quality of Rafael Nadal. This is the clay court event where Rafael Nadal has tended to be more vulnerable than the others on the Tour, but I am not sure someone like David Goffin has the tennis to really take advantage of the conditions to hurt Nadal regularly.
David Goffin has put together some decent numbers on the clay courts and he has not played badly when he has been put up against top 50 Ranked opponents either.
Again, I cannot emphasise enough how much of a challenge Rafael Nadal presents on the surface and I do think he is going to be able to break down David Goffin, much as he has done in their previous matches.
They have not met since 2019 on the clay courts at the French Open, but Rafael Nadal has won all four previous matches on the surface against David Goffin. In those matches, Rafael Nadal has held 93% of the service games he has played, while David Goffin has only managed to hold 61% of his own service games.
It may be a little closer in terms of numbers in this Third Round match with Rafael Nadal having missed a few weeks of the Tour and David Goffin in decent shape on the clay courts.
Even with that in mind, I do think the Spaniard will be able to find the tennis to move through to the Quarter Final and I think Nadal's ability to break the Goffin serve should give him every chance of covering a big spread.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jil Teichmann @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madrid Update: 12-17, - 12.42 Units (58 Units Staked, - 21.41% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment