NBA Conference Finals 2022- Game 1-4
A quick look at the last four teams standing in the NBA would have most unsurprised to read the names of the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat and the Golden State Warriors still standing.
The Dallas Mavericks look to be the outlier, but they may have the best player left in the PlayOffs and are coming in off an upset of the Number 1 Seeded Phoenix Suns. The Western Conference certainly looked more open of the two and that has played out with both of the top two Seeds out of the West, but those two Seeds are facing one another in the East.
You could make a case for any of the four teams to win the NBA Championship from here and the first four games of both Eastern and Western Conference Finals will take place over the next eight days. There is little rest time for teams looking to make the adjustments from game to game and you do have to wonder how much of an impact there will be from the Conference Semi Final Series that saw the Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics needing to win a Game 7 to earn their spots in the Conference Finals.
Both Series should be fun for different reasons- I think the Western Conference Finals will be a high-scoring one with the veterans of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson trying to keep Luka Doncic out, while the Eastern Conference Finals look like they could be tight, competitive and very physical games between the Celtics and the Miami Heat.
The NBA Picks have not had a very good Conference Semi Final run and I have been a little frustrated by that.
The Conference Finals can be tougher to get a read on with the oddsmakers usually right on top of the lines, but I am expecting better from myself.
As I have done previously, Games 1-4 selections will be contained in this thread, but I will have a new one for Games 5-7.
Tuesday 17th May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 1 Pick: When the PlayOff bracket was put together, it felt the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics were rightly down as the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference. Both have backed that up with Series wins over the Atlanta Hawks/Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets/Milwaukee Bucks respectively, but it is clear that the Heat have had the kinder path through to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The two teams have both dropped just three games on their way to the Conference Finals, but the Heat have been off and preparing for a few days after the Celtics were forced to win a Game 7 at home on Sunday.
There are two schools of thought with how this will manifest in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals- the first is that the layoff can affect the rhythm and shooting consistency of the team that have been resting, especially against a focused opponent that hasn't had the same layoff; the second is that Game 7 will have taken something out of the tank of the team having to win a pressurised game and that they could be caught short with this Conference Finals beginning so soon after the Semi Final Series have ended.
In recent years it has been the second of the scenarios which has come true more often than not and teams playing off a Game 7 are winning just 39% of Game 1s in the next Series historically. That has to be a concern for the Boston Celtics who faced one tough opponent and now have to deal with another, one that beat them in the Eastern Conference Finals in six games inside the NBA Bubble a couple of years ago.
Things will feel different this time with the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics both going to have to deal with tough road games, but I do think the Heat have the edge in Game 1, especially with the top Coaching they receive. Even though they only found out their opponent on Sunday, Miami would likely have planned for either the Celtics or Bucks and I do think the Heat will be ready to compete.
Overall I do think the Boston Celtics are the better team, but this opening spot is perhaps not ideal.
The Miami Heat are a very good Defensive team and have the depth and the shooting options to match the Boston Celtics in what feels a more superior way than the Milwaukee Bucks could without Khris Middleton in the line up. The Celtics do have an edge with their three point shooting and will take a lot of shots from long range which always gives them a chance, but the Miami Heat should be able to hold serve in Game 1 with their star players having had the rest an the Heat are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the home favourite.
Boston have continued to impress in their role as the road underdog, and that deserves plenty of respect, but Game 1 might see them just run out of gas in the Second Half to allow the Number 1 Seed to move into a lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Wednesday 18th May
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: After a couple of years when injuries have hurt the Golden State Warriors core, the likes of Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Steph Curry all entered the post-season feeling pretty good. The Number 3 Seeded Warriors have long been amongst the very favourites to win the NBA Championship with that core together and the likes of Jordan Poole have stepped up their own level alongside the veterans to make Golden State extremely dangerous.
They have to be respected, although at the same time you cannot ignore the fact that the Warriors are not the same team they were when dominating the top of the NBA a few seasons ago. Those veteran players are perhaps not as consistent as they once were, but I am expecting Golden State to reach the NBA Finals as they face a Dallas Mavericks team that is looking to play a brand of basketball that the Warriors will recognise.
Some have compared the Mavericks to the Houston Rockets of the James Harden era and that was a team that did struggle to match up with the Golden State Warriors until they found the experience they needed to challenge Golden State.
I think that could let the Mavericks down in this Western Conference Finals Series even with Luka Doncic playing at an incredible level.
While he may be the best player on the court, the Dallas role players could be under a pressure to keep the scoring up and this time they are facing an opponent that can be clinical from the three point range. That lack of shooting hurt the Phoenix Suns in the Conference Semi Final Series, but the Warriors will feel they have a number of players that can heat up from long range which will give them the edge.
Dallas did win three of the four regular season meetings so won't be afraid of mixing it with the Golden State Warriors, but they are coming in off a Game 7 win over the Phoenix Suns. As I've mentioned in the preview for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, those teams coming off a Game 7 have struggled in the opening game of their next Series, although Dallas do have one more day of rest compared with the Boston Celtics.
The Mavericks have to be respected for how they have performed Defensively in their Series win over the Phoenix Suns, but they did struggle in the first three road games. The role players will have been given a boost by the blowout win in Game 7 on the road, but this Golden State Warriors team may have too much scoring power in this opening game of the Western Conference Finals if there is some lingering fatigue from the emotions of winning that last game in Phoenix.
Both teams have played well off a relatively long rest for the NBA season, while Golden State have been strong at home with a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine here.
Dallas were just 1-3 against the spread as the road underdog in their last Series and I think the manner of their win in Game 7 will see the team come back to the mean mark and that should be enough to give the Golden State Warriors the momentum to move clear in the Fourth Quarter.
Thursday 19th May
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 2 Pick: Marcus Smart was always trending towards missing out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the late scratch of Al Horford left the Boston Celtics shorthanded. It sounds like Al Horford will be out until this weekend when the Series heads to the TD Garden for the first time, but the return of Smart could be a huge boost for the team.
They actually outscored the Miami Heat in three of the four Quarters played, but the Heat changed the entire momentum of Game 1 in the Third Quarter when they finished with 25 points more than the Number 2 Seed. It was a lead that the Miami Heat were never going to relinquish at that point and they made enough plays in the Fourth Quarter to hold onto an 11 point win.
You could potentially blame the Game 7 that the Boston Celtics had to win on Sunday, but the reality is that they made too many mistakes in the Third Quarter with turnovers sparking fast break points, and ultimately the Boston Celtics were not able to stop the bleeding with a terrible effort from the field the other way.
Jayson Tatum admitted that he needs to be a lot better if the Celtics are going to win the Eastern Conference Finals, and there is room for improvement from the next star of the NBA. He had seven turnovers and a poor day shooting from the three point range, but Jayson Tatum has shown throughout the NBA PlayOffs that he can bounce back from underwhelming games.
You cannot expect Marcus Smart to be at full health, but his return should make things a bit tougher for the Miami Heat who shot 49% from the field in Game 1. Both teams struggled from the three point range, but the Heat had the deeper bench and that played out in Game 1 to give them the lead in the Eastern Conference Finals.
I do think the Boston Celtics will be better with Marcus Smart in the line up though and the zigzag theory has been the play in recent Conference Finals games. Those teams coming in off a loss are 14-4-1 against the spread in the last nineteen games in that spot, while Number 1 Seeds have a poor 15-24-1 recent record against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points in the Conference Finals, although Miami have overcome that once already.
Opposing Miami is not easy considering how well they have played at home in recent weeks, while home teams who have won Game 1 of the Conference Finals Series have tended to win Game 2. With this being a short spread, the Heat will feel confident of covering if they are able to win, but I do think the Boston Celtics will make some adjustments that helps them back into the Series.
The Celtics have covered in their last four after a straight up loss and I will back the road team with the points in Game 2 to at least keep this one much closer than Game 1 ended up being.
Friday 20th May
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: It feels like the Dallas Mavericks have accepted that they are going to live or die by the three point shot and it is asking a lot of the role players to produce consistently on the road. Yes, they won a Game 7 in the Conference Semi Finals at the Phoenix Suns, but the Dallas Mavericks were beaten in the other three road games in that Series and suffered a couple of blowout losses when going cold from the distance.
Luka Doncic is going to be better in Game 2 of this Western Conference Finals Series having had an inefficient Game 1, but the superstar for the Mavericks cannot win the Finals on his own. He knows his team-mates are going to have to be a lot better both with their open three pointers as well as their contested shots having hit just 23% from outside the arc in the blowout loss to the Golden State Warriors.
Despite the wide win, Golden State were not much stronger from three point range and actually hit fewer three pointers than the Dallas Mavericks, but they were a touch more efficient. The Warriors were also happier getting to the Free Throw line and challenge the Mavericks inside the paint, while Dallas attempted way over 50% of their shots from outside the arc.
You have to be wary of the Mavericks getting hot at any time, but they are playing a balanced Golden State team who shared out the points in Game 1. While you cannot expect Andrew Wiggins to have the same kind of Offensive output on any given night, you can look for Wiggins to at least pressure Luka Doncic and make him work for his points, while the rest of the team try to tire him out on the Defensive side of the court.
The line has moved somewhat between Game 2 and Game 1, but the Golden State Warriors still look more capable of keeping the momentum going with the approach they have taken. Big favourites have not been on a very good run in recent Conference Finals outings, but the Warriors covered easily in the first game and I think they can do the same here, even if I do believe this game is going to be closer than what we saw a couple of days ago.
Dallas are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games in the PlayOffs having been blown out last time out, and they did find themselves 2-0 down in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns.
The Warriors are now 6-2 against the spread in their last eight as the home favourite, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when playing off a double digit win.
I have to have a lot of respect for the Dallas Mavericks who showed plenty of character and heart in their Conference Semi Final Series success, but the Golden State Warriors look to match up well with them and know how to defend teams that have the style the Mavericks bring to the court. While closer, I still expect the Warriors to cover again.
Saturday 21st May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: The first two games have ended in big wins for the winning team, but the Boston Celtics will return home with a split in the first two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and holding all of the momentum in the Series. The Boston Celtics have outscored the Miami Heat in more than half of the eight Quarters played in the first two games, while the Heat have managed to put more points on the board in just the Third Quarter of Game 1.
Erik Spoelstra is going to have spent the last couple of days thinking of the adjustments he needs to make to turn things around for the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. However, things will be much tougher for the Miami Heat if they have to go without PJ Tucker, Max Struse and Gabe Vincent in Game 3 with all three players listed as Questionable in the last Miami injury report.
I do think all will suit up in this pivotal Game 3 with the Series shifting back to Boston and the TD Garden.
However, the Miami Heat are going to be put under intense pressure from the Boston Celtics who looked much stronger all around with Marcus Smart and Al Horford back in the rotation. An improvement was expected, but the Boston Celtics were able to do what they liked on both ends of the court and it is perhaps no surprise that they are going to be heading into Game 3 as a big favourite.
It is hard to see things much differently when you think of how well the Boston Celtics played in Game 2 and they also were pretty strong outside of one Quarter in Game 1. The size and athleticism of the Celtics is tough to match, but I do like how well the Miami Heat have been Coached and the feeling is that they can make the adjustments to keep this one closer than the last game was.
Much will depend on whether the Heat can get closer to the shooters from the three point range in this one, but I do think the Miami Heat will make the adjustments to do that.
The Heat are now 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games when beaten by double digits, while they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven as the road underdog.
At the same time the Boston Celtics are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five in the Conference Finals.
Teams playing with the zigzag theory behind them are 15-4-1 against the spread in the last twenty in that spot. Another trend behind the Heat is that teams who have lost by at least ten points in Game 2 have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten games in that spot and I do think the Number 1 Seed should be respected and looked at as a team that can keep this well within the line set.
Miami did beat a strong Boston team here at the end of March and I think the Miami Heat can upset the odds and keep this one close.
Sunday 22nd May
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: A barrage of three pointers helped Dallas Mavericks move up into 19 point lead over the Golden State Warriors in Game 2 and the underdog had a big lead at half time. However, there has been much criticism of the game management in the second half and a poor Third Quarter allowed the Warriors to get back into the game and eventually use the momentum to kick past the Mavericks.
Being 2-0 down will hurt the Dallas Mavericks who have had to face the music with their approach in the second half of Game 2. Even Head Coach Jason Kidd made it clear that his team had to look for another way to attack the Golden State Warriors when the three pointers dried up in the second half as the game slipped away from them.
In the cold light of day, Jason Kidd seems to have changed his mind and it sounds like the Dallas Mavericks are going to continue to look for the open shooter from the three point range. They have taken a lot more shots from the distance than the Warriors in this Western Conference Finals Series, but the Mavericks are not hitting as efficiently as they would have liked and it has left them in a tough position.
The Dallas Mavericks were in the same position in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Phoenix Suns, but they were much better at home in that Series and won all three games played here. The role players have been more confident in hitting their shots at home, while the Dallas Mavericks are 25-10 against the spread in their last thirty-five games at home.
It may surprise some to see the Mavericks as the favourite in this Game 3 at home, but teams coming into Game 3 with a 0-2 deficit have produced an 8-2 record against the spread in the last ten times that situation has come up. As mentioned, the Dallas role players have been more confident at home and able to sustain their Offensive output here, and they will look to put the pressure on the Golden State Warriors as they continue to 'live or die by the three'.
There is no doubt that it is difficult to oppose the Golden State Warriors who have been shooting the ball with more efficiency than the Dallas Mavericks and are plenty experienced. They have a depth which means any of their starters could pick up the scoring slack, but the Warriors will know they are going to have to try and match the intensity that the Mavericks will likely be playing with on Sunday.
Golden State have not covered in any of their last four road games and I do think the Dallas Mavericks can be backed here.
The sharp money looks to be on the Mavericks and I think they can cover to reignite this Western Conference Finals Series.
Monday 23rd May
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: This is being written out a little later than normal for a very simple reason.
Injuries.
Both the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics feel banged up ahead of Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals and even now there is some uncertainty as to who will be available and who will be having to miss out.
Robert Williams and Marcus Smart are Questionable for this important game for the Boston Celtics, while Jimmy Butler is the big concern for the Miami Heat. It sounds like Butler will suit up despite missing the second half of the previous game, while Tyler Herro could be a big absentee for the Number 1 Seed.
Jayson Tatum looks to have escaped an injury having had an issue with his shoulder in Game 3, but now the attention will be turning to those on the court after the Miami Heat made a fast start and held onto a lead and a win to move 2-1 ahead in the Eastern Conference Finals.
In a strange turn of events, the Miami Heat have only won two of the twelve Quarters that have been played by these teams in this Series, but those have come by a 25 point margin in the Third Quarter of Game 1 and a 21 point margin in the First Quarter of Game 3. Both times it has proved to be the difference with the Boston rally coming up short in the last game, while the Celtics know they can clean up some of their own issues to at least level the Series before we all head back to South Beach.
Turnovers have been the critical issue in both of those Quarters that have seen the Miami Heat pull away and win by big margins. The expectation is that the Celtics have the edge if they can be a little more careful with their basketball handling and I do think they will come out with the intensity they showed in Game 2 after a disappointing defeat.
Boston showed that throughout the Series with the Milwaukee Bucks too and they are now 5-0 against the spread in their last five following a loss. Despite the loss in Game 3, the Celtics remain a solid favourite to back, although you have to respect the Miami Heat for the performances as a road underdog.
However, the Heat were pretty well beaten in road games at the Philadelphia 76ers in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think they could potentially exhale after taking back home court advantage. With a couple of players banged up and with the Boston Celtics likely to be much more focused and intense, I am not sure the Heat can rely on the home team turning the ball over as much as they have a couple of times in the Series, including to open Game 3.
The public look to be behind the Heat with the points, but I like the Boston Celtics to bounce and continue the zigzag trend in the Eastern Conference Finals.
Home teams that are not 0-3 down going into Game 4 of the Conference Finals are also on a 9-2 run against the spread and I think the Boston Celtics cover on their way to levelling up the Eastern Conference Finals.
Tuesday 24th May
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: After rallying in Game 2, the Golden State Warriors headed to the Dallas Mavericks with a strong lead in the Western Conference Finals, and another strong Third Quarter showing helped the Warriors move to the brink of returning to the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years.
For those who thought the good times for over, this has been a surprising season put together by the Warriors, but all associated with Golden State had much stronger belief in their own team. The veterans of the Championship teams continue to lead the way, but the Warriors are well backed up now and will be confident in securing a win in Game 4 and have plenty of time to prepare for the NBA Finals which begins next week.
However, the Warriors have not been at their best in close out spots with a 3-0 lead in the Series and they are just 6-4 in the last ten Game 4s when they have moved into this position. The Denver Nuggets beat the Warriors in that situation earlier in the PlayOffs, but it is hard to back against the Golden State Warriors.
For starters, teams in a 0-3 hole have struggled in Game 4 of the Conference Finals, while the Dallas Mavericks will also know that no team in NBA history has been able to win a Series when they have fallen into this position.
Luka Doncic continues to try and carry the Mavericks on his back, but he was not helped by the role players in Game 3 with the likes of Reggie Bullock and Max Kleber combining for a 0/15 effort from the field. It wasn't as if the two were having to hit contested shots, but they missed open looks and ultimately it made it very difficult for the Mavericks to break down the Warriors.
At this point I don't think the Mavericks are going to change the plan and I expect them to continue shooting the ball at a high rate from the three point line. You have to believe they are going to have a bounce back effort from the poor outing in Game 3 and we did see the Dallas Mavericks pick up their play in Game 2 after an underwhelming Game 1 effort already in this Western Conference Finals.
Stopping the Warriors will be a huge challenge for the Mavericks who have allowed their opponent to score at least 109 points in each of the wins in the Series. They have a balance Offensive approach and that saw five of their players reach double digits in terms of points in the last game.
Luka Doncic is likely to stay in attack mode as he looks to become the third player in the history of the NBA to score at least 40 points in three Conference Finals games, but the I am expecting better from his role players and that could see this Game 4 surpass the total points line.
It is hard to imagine this Dallas Mavericks team being able to shut down the Golden State Warriors, but with a better shooting effort expected from the hosts, I think Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals Series could hit the over.
MY PICKS: 17/05 Miami Heat - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/05 Golden State Warriors - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/05 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
20/05 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
21/05 Miami Heat + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/05 Dallas Mavericks - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
23/05 Boston Celtics - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
24/05 Dallas Mavericks-Golden State Warriors Over 215.5 Total Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Conference Finals Update: 5-1, + 3.55 Units (6 Units Staked, + 59.17% Yield)
Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)
First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
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