The Fourth Round Picks on Day 8 saw a slight turnaround after a miserable couple of days, but things did not come easy.
Martina Trevisan struggled to put away Aliaksandra Sasnovich despite looking the stronger player, while another player with a poor return on the break points was Rafael Nadal. At least the former won and late victories for Carlos Alcaraz and Sloane Stephens have at least helped a positive return on the day.
There is so much work to do to make sure of a winning event after the Third Round misery, but hopefully I can get the numbers to continue to move in a positive direction when Day 9 is completed.
Jannik Sinner v Andrey Rublev: Two of the current top 12 in the World Rankings are going to meet in the Fourth Round at the French Open and these are two of the players looking to step up and begin challenging some of the top names on the Tour. Both Jannik Sinner and Andrey Rublev have plenty of potential to do that, although it is the former that is perhaps better placed to build and go on and win a Grand Slam.
In something of a surprise, Andrey Rublev will be going into the match as the favourite. There have been fitness concerns for Jannik Sinner in the build to the French Open, but we have not seen any real sign of that in the tournament and I think the odds may reflect a touch of uncertainty about him.
The Italian has looked pretty strong throughout the French Open though and his numbers have been pretty good, although you can't ignore the fact that Jannik Sinner has benefited from a kind draw with this being the first opponent Ranked inside the top 50. A look at how he has performed on the clay courts in the tournaments played over the last two months suggests there has been very little margin for error for Sinner with 62% of service points won and only 40% of return points, but I do think he has been returning with a little more confidence in this tournament.
He has certainly looked more confident on the return than Andrey Rublev who has won fewer than 40% of return points played in the wins over Federico Delbonis and Cristian Garin. All three of his matches in Paris have been won in four sets, but Andrey Rublev has laid the foundation for his success on the serve with just four breaks going against him in the tournament so far.
However, Andrey Rublev has seen his service numbers dip when he has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on the clay this season and I do think that will show up in this Fourth Round match.
One of those matches was against Jannik Sinner in Monte Carlo and it was a match the Italian dominated after dropping the opening set. In fact Sinner is now 2-0 against Andrey Rublev on the clay courts and he has held 79% of service games in those matches compared with the 58% mark for the Russian.
I also have to note that the performance level has just come down in each of the last three Rounds in Paris for Andrey Rublev and he is going to need to serve very well to win this match. There are times I have watched Jannik Sinner and felt he is a little predictable and one-paced with his tennis, but that may be good enough against an aggressive player like Andrey Rublev and holding the mental edge makes the Italian an appealing selection as the underdog.
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: Only one match was played in the build to the French Open, but Daniil Medvedev has looked much stronger in the tournament having lost that match to Richard Gasquet after recovering from a small procedure on the hernia. The World Number 2 is in the easier half of the draw, but he has shown he is ready to compete at the French Open again after reaching the Quarter Final last season.
Some may feel the early Rounds should be negotiable for a player of Daniil Medvedev's quality, but he has been impressive in beating quality operators in Laslo Djere and Miomir Kecmanovic in the last couple of Rounds. The fact that Medvedev has not dropped a set in those wins has to impress and he has been returning really well on the clay courts, much as he did at the French Open in his Quarter Final run in 2021.
This is another very tough match for Daniil Medvedev against an opponent who had a strong build on the clay courts and who has pushed the likes of Alexander Zverev and Cristian Garin in close losses, while Marin Cilic holds a win over Cameron Norrie.
The Croatian may not be the player he was, but Cilic had held 80% of service games played and backed that up with breaks in 26% of return games played on the red dirt before arriving in Paris. He has been very impressive in the tournament too, although Marin Cilic has yet to play anyone Ranked higher than 57 and that win over Marton Fucsovics was easily the toughest he has had at the French Open.
Marin Cilic has won the other two matches against opponents who were massively overmatched, but he will be the first to admit how much stronger he is going to have to be to challenge someone like Daniil Medvedev.
Daniil Medvedev will also hold the advantage mentally with all three previous matches between the two ending in wins for the Russian player. In those matches, Medvedev has held 89% of his service games compared with Marin Cilic holding 75% and I do think the World Number 2 is the superior return player at this stage of their careers.
On the clay I expect there to be more chances to break for both, but Daniil Medvedev looks to be close to his best already and I think he will be able to move through in three or four sets, which should give him every chance to earn the breaks to cover this mark.
Casper Ruud-Hubert Hurkacz over 38.5 games: You have to credit Casper Ruud for battling back from a difficult position in the Third Round, but he has made harder work of the first week at the French Open than he would have wanted. Now it is all about recovery after a long match and hoping he is ready to compete in the Fourth Round, where Casper Ruud will be the favourite despite some difficulties in moving through the draw.
I can understand why Casper Ruud is still the favourite having shown the much more consistent form on the clay courts in recent years than Hubert Hurkacz, but the latter has to be respected.
Hubert Hurkacz had only won a single match at the French Open and had suffered three First Round defeats in succession, but he has yet to drop a set in moving through to the Fourth Round in 2022. The win over David Goffin was very impressive in the last Round, although it did feel like the Belgian was not at 100%, while Hurkacz has made short work of the other two opponents faced.
Much will depend on how well he can serve and he has won at least 75% of service points in each of the three Rounds played in Paris. Unsurprisingly those are numbers that have seen Hubert Hurkacz moved through the draw without dropping a set and only David Goffin has even managed to earn some Break Points.
I do think this is going to be a much tougher test for Hubert Hurkacz, but he will be encouraged by the fact that Casper Ruud has not really been able to return as well as he would have liked on the red dirt this season. The Norwegian has only broken in 22% of return games played on the clay courts in 2022, which is down from the 32% mark produced in 2021, while Casper Ruud struggled to deal with the Lorenzo Sonego serve in the Third Round with 36% of return points won on that day.
Casper Ruud has managed to break at least four times in each of his wins in Paris over the last week, but this is the biggest server he will have faced. Some of the games that have been allowed to slip by has put pressure on the Casper Ruud serve too and it has led to the World Number 8 perhaps losing a bit of focus at costly times, as it was in the Third Round.
He will also be playing an opponent who is not exactly a stellar return player, even on the clay courts and I think that will give Casper Ruud an edge, although it could be a match that is dominated by the serve.
You cannot ignore the fact that Hubert Hurkacz has only won one of the seven previous matches against top 20 Ranked players on the clay courts and his serve has not been as effective in those matches either. However, the serve has been good enough to pressure his way into winning a number of sets in that time and I do think this match is going to last at least four sets, which gives the players every chance of combining to move past this total games line.
A couple of tie-breakers would not be a surprise either and I am looking for this to be a competitive Fourth Round match.
MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud-Hubert Hurkacz Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas Win 3-1 @ 3.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Madison Keys @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Irina Camelia-Begu + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 44-45, - 9.94 Units (178 Units Staked, - 5.58% Yield)
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