The Third Round is over and I can't say I am too disappointed when you see how the last two days have gone for the Tennis Picks.
It has been a time of frustration- I have been fed up with the poor luck that has accompanied some of the selections, especially as that has compounded the bad picks made.
Yesterday was more of the same with Andrey Rublev blowing a really strong chance to cover, but it has also put the week in a really poor position. The Fourth Round is where things need to begin to be turned around and you can see my Picks from the Sunday matches scheduled here.
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: You have to accept that this is a very big spread against a player as competent as Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but Novak Djokovic is capable of finding the breaks of serve that will be needed to move past the line.
It is the Fourth Round of a Grand Slam so the expectation is that the challenges and tests get much tougher for all players and I think there will be a real respect for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman coming from the other side of the net. Over the years we have seen Schwartzman give some of the top names on the clay courts a bit of a run for their money, although he has only held 61% of his service games against top five Ranked opponents in this Grand Slam.
His sole win in the six previous matches against those top players came in an epic five setter against Dominic Thiem in 2020, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has been pretty well beaten by Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal (three times) in Paris. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is known for having a solid return game, but the numbers dip to 22% of return games ending with a break of serve and I do think he was not having the best tournament before crushing Grigor Dimitrov in an upset in the Third Round.
The earlier performances were not that encouraging and it has not been the best time on the clay over the last couple of months for the Argentine. He is also facing a Novak Djokovic who looked like he was getting back to his best when winning the Rome Masters and who has looked untroubled in Paris with three straight sets wins behind him.
The World Number 1 is a perfectionist though and he will feel he has not returned as well as he would have liked in the last couple of Rounds with 43% of points won against the Alex Molcan serve and 45% against the Aljaz Bedene serve. However, Novak Djokovic may feel both have a bigger serve than the one he will see in the Fourth Round and the Serb has still managed to break all of the opponents faced in the French Open at least four times each.
Novak Djokovic has been serving well in the last two wins too and he will be confident in the match up even if he knows it will be a test.
He has won all six previous matches against Diego Sebastian Schwartzman and he has broken in 37% of return games played in the three clay court matches between the two. Their sole meeting in the French Open did go five sets in 2017, but Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has felt like he has lost a slight spring in the step these days and I think Novak Djokovic will find the breaks he needs in an entertaining Fourth Round match.
It may even go four sets, but barring a complete loss of focus, Novak Djokovic can still do enough to cover this big spread.
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: A Fourth Round match at a Grand Slam has plenty of headlines to make on its own, but there is an added crease to this one. Rafael Nadal will be going into the match as the favourite, which is no surprise, but his opponent is actually advised by Nadal's Uncle Toni these days.
Any drama added to the mix looks to have been removed by Toni Nadal who has told reporters that he had made it clear when partnering with Felix Auger-Aliassime that he would not be disclosing any secret tips on how to beat Rafael Nadal.
Even if Felix Auger-Aliassime had been given the directions, it is all about the execution in the Fourth Round and I think it is going to take a huge serving day to have any real hope of the upset. So far in the tournament, the Canadian has been able to hold opponents off with the serve and he has only been broken twice in the last two Rounds.
However, all three matches in this tournament have been played against opponents that Felix Auger-Aliassime has been expected to beat and he has perhaps made harder work of those victories than he should have. He has twice failed to win more than 40% of return points in the three Rounds played and that is not a number that will be a worry to Rafael Nadal who has looked pretty sharp behind serve for the most part.
There have been a couple of wobbles, but those have come from positions of complete command and Rafael Nadal has only dropped serve five times this week, even if that is more than we have become used to at the French Open.
The return continues to be very dangerous though and Rafael Nadal has found at least seven breaks of serve in each of his three wins in Paris. The foot injury is a concern against someone who can hit the ball as big as Felix Auger-Aliassime, but I do think Nadal has played well enough to think he is dealing with any lingering issue and the return is something that can put a lot of pressure on any opponent he faces.
Before the French Open, Felix Auger-Aliassime lost three of four matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents on the clay and his serve was proved to be not as effective against those. The two top 10 opponents he faced saw the Canadian hold just 69% of his service games played and I do think the conditions in Paris will be ones that Rafael Nadal is able to enjoy.
Much depends on how big Felix Auger-Aliassime can serve and for how long, but this match may come too soon for him in his career.
In their sole clay court meeting, Rafael Nadal was able to dominate the return and, while improved, I think it is going to be the return that helps him get on top of this one too.
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Karen Khachanov: The Second Round battling win over Albert Ramos-Vinolas was a huge testing moment for Carlos Alcaraz.
Winning on the day was important, but how he handled himself and prepared for the Third Round match with Sebastian Korda was an interesting moment for all of those who have predicted Carlos Alcaraz could win this Grand Slam title. He more than showed he is ready to take home one of the biggest prizes in tennis and that too against a player who had beaten him on the clay in the lead up to the French Open.
Having a day off between matches clearly would have helped, but Carlos Alcaraz was very impressive in the Third Round and he deserves to be a big favourite in the Fourth Round too.
Karen Khachanov has done well to reach the second week at the French Open considering the inconsistent levels he had shown in the tournaments on the way to Paris. The big hitting player has taken a set off of Novak Djokovic and Stefanos Tsitsipas on the clay before falling apart, but that does show that Karen Khachanov has to be respected.
However, it is difficult to imagine he can maintain a level to beat someone who has played as well as Carlos Alcaraz all season and even the tournament numbers have been much stronger than the Karen Khachanov numbers. The latter gave up 21 break points in his win over Cameron Norrie, but it is unlikely that Carlos Alcaraz will be as generous having had his own issues once already in this tournament in securing breaks.
Even in the last Round, it was a comfortable win but Carlos Alcaraz created a lot of break points before securing the breaks, but he is playing an opponent in this one that has held 77% of service games played on the clay courts. That number has dipped to 65% for Karen Khachanov when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface in 2022 and I do think the big hitter will struggle to keep Carlos Alcaraz at bay.
They haven't met before, but I do think the Spaniard will like the kind of pace of ball he will be facing in this one, while a flatter shot from Karen Khachanov compared with Albert Ramos-Vinolas can also play into the hands of Carlos Alcaraz.
Karen Khachanov is a player that deserves respect having had solid runs in previous Grand Slam tournaments and I do think he will feel all the pressure is on his younger opponent. He can take the racquet out of the hand of any opponent he faces, but Carlos Alcaraz is something special and can underline why he is Ranked as highly as he is by getting to grips with Khachanov early, and then moving through the gears like others have done on this surface.
Carlos Alcaraz can be a little vulnerable on serve with the aggression he tends to play with and the first serve still a work in progress, but he does enough to protect it. The return game is where he excels though and has a clear advantage over Karen Khachanov and I expect that to be the case in this Fourth Round match.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Martina Trevisan @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
French Open Update; 40-43, - 13.58 Units (166 Units Staked, - 8.18% Yield)
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