It was another mixed day for the Tennis Picks and I have been a little disappointed with my record in the Madrid Masters after the strong outcome of the Estoril/Munich events.
Things have been difficult so far, but the players left in the tournament should have begun to get to grips with the conditions in Madrid.
The markets have yet to be put together for some of the matches that are to come later in the day on Wednesday in the Second Round in the ATP Madrid event, but any selections from those will be added to this thread.
Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 games v Ekaterina Alexandrova: All players that have reached the Quarter Final of a big tournament like the WTA Madrid event will be feeling pretty confident about their chances of going on and winning the title. With Ashleigh Barty retired and Iga Swiatek withdrawn from the event, the Madrid Masters looks pretty open and all of the players remaining in the draw are going to believe they can set a marker for the upcoming French Open.
Of course it also has to be noted that the Madrid Masters is played in much different conditions than those at Roland Garros and so the Champion here will still have something to prove. Next week the second Masters event on the clay in Rome will be beginning and that may be a tournament that gives us a better idea of the kind of players that may have a big impact at the next Grand Slam.
In saying that, Amanda Anisimova will be feeling good about her tennis having reached the Semi Final in Charleston before her run to the Quarter Final here in Madrid. The American has yet to really fulfil the kind of potential she has, but Amanda Anisimova has not had the best of times personally and I do think that has affected her tennis.
However, the former French Open Semi Finalist looks to be playing some strong tennis on the clay courts and she has been a player that has enjoyed playing on the clay courts. The wins in Madrid have rarely come easy this week, but Amanda Anisimova won well in the Third Round after a couple of tough victories and confidence has to be strong knowing she can weather the difficult moments.
Amanda Anisimova has been serving well and that will be important for her in the conditions, but she does have room for improvement having won just 43% of return points played. Break points have been created regularly in the tournament, but Amanda Anisimova will be looking to be a little better on the big points and especially in a match like this one.
Her Quarter Final opponent Ekaterina Alexandrova has come through the Qualifiers before winning three matches in the main draw, but there were one or two concerning signs at the end of her Third Round win. The Qualifier missed Match Points at 5-3 and 5-4 in the decider, and Ekaterina Alexandrova looked like she was running on fumes so the day off between matches is going to be key for the underdog.
In recent years Ekaterina Alexandrova has not had the best record on the clay courts, but in 2022 she has been playing really well and she could be dangerous. The serve has been setting her up through the tournament in Madrid and Alexandrova has won 49% of return points played, although only one of the five wins has come against a top 50 Ranked opponent.
Over the last twelve months, Ekaterina Alexandrova has struggled with her return and second serve when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent and I do think she is going to be a touch fatigued against a player who has a solid clay court game.
In their sole previous match, Amanda Anisimova had too much for Ekaterina Alexandrova on a hard court and the latter struggled with her return on the day. In these conditions in Madrid, I think the American can work her way past her opponent and I think she may be the fresher of the two players as this match develops, something that should see the American pull clear for a good win on her way through to the Semi Final.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Ons Jabeur: Any player who starts a professional career in tennis and ends up winning two Grand Slam titles would look back with positives, but the feeling for Simona Halep is that there is still some meat on the bone. A former French Open and Wimbledon Champion has clearly made the decision to partner with Patrick Mouratoglou with the ambition to win more Grand Slams and her return to her favoured surface has been reaping rewards this week.
Beating Iga Swiatek looks like it will be the big challenge for every player on the WTA side of the Tour when the French Open begins, but the World Number 1 is not here this week and Simona Halep has knocked off the World Number 2.
The former World Number 1 is a three time Finalist at the French Open and her performances here in Madrid have been very encouraging with three strong wins behind her. Simona Halep has not dropped a set yet, and she has been able to serve very well with the first serve really proving to be a potent weapon for her.
Even the second serve has been well protected and this side of her game is backed up by a return which has seen Simona Halep win almost 49% of return points and break serve at least three times in all three of her wins.
This is another tough test for Halep when she meets Ons Jabeur in the Quarter Final and the top ten Ranked player has been in good form on the clay courts in each of the last couple of years. This season Ons Jabeur has reached the Final in Charleston and the Quarter Final in Stuttgart, while her run to the Quarter Final in Madrid has backed up the early performances on the clay with the French Open coming up later this month.
The key to this match may be the second serve for the two players- Ons Jabeur has struggled to protect that part of her tennis in Madrid, although the first serve has been in good shape. You have to expect Simona Halep to get on top of the second serve, and that is going to put some pressure on Jabeur to make sure she increases the number of first serves she gets in play.
Both of these players are returning well enough to mean that the first serve has to keep the other at bay and it does feel like Simona Halep is going to get more of those in play. The surface is one she favours over Ons Jabeur and I do think Halep has long been one of the best players on the clay courts and I am looking for her to secure her place in the Semi Final.
When these players met in Dubai earlier this year, Simona Halep was a comfortable winner and I think there is more of an edge for her on the clay courts. She can show that off and underline her place as arguably the second favourite to win the French Open with another impressive win in this Masters event.
MY PICKS: Amanda Anisimova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
David Goffin @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madrid Update: 11-11, - 2.62 Units (44 Units Staked, - 5.95% Yield)
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