I am guaranteed my worst ever result at a Grand Slam tournament for the Tennis Picks, but I just can't get my head around some of the ways things continue to go the opposite way to my predictions.
It has been awful time to be honest and I am glad to see the back of May with the hope that whatever seems to be cursing my fortune moves on to bother somebody else. Bad luck has been a bigger problem than bad picks in this tournament and I am always brutal about how I feel about my selections, but I cannot ignore what seems to be a terrible trend of misfortune.
Anyway, I will have more thoughts on this next week and what my plans are going forward, but for now you can read my thoughts on the matches to be played on Day 11 in Paris.
Of course, I would recommend going the other way on these with the way my luck has been.
Marin Cilic v Andrey Rublev: The conditions in the Night Session have been a source of frustration for the players that have been scheduled to play in that spot, but I am not sure you can blame that on the Daniil Medvedev crushing loss to Marin Cilic in the Fourth Round. The two former US Open Champions were meeting for a fourth time, but it was the veteran in Marin Cilic who enjoyed the session the most and beat Daniil Medvedev for the first time.
A dominant win will have given Marin Cilic plenty of confidence to take into this Quarter Final and I am a little surprised to see him set as the underdog.
All credit has to be given to Andrey Rublev for reaching the Quarter Final in Paris for the second time in three seasons, while he had a solid clay court season going into the French Open. However, he benefited from the injury suffered by Jannik Sinner having been outplayed at the start of the match before the young Italian was barely able to serve thanks to a lingering leg issue that is likely going to keep him out of Wimbledon.
Wins will breed confidence, but Rublev has not been the most convincing at times in this tournament and is likely to be challenged by Marin Cilic who has put together four very solid wins. Like Andrey Rublev, Cilic had played pretty well on the clay courts in the preparation tournaments and he has twice been a Quarter Finalist at the French Open before.
A win on Wednesday will mean Marin Cilic has reached the last four of all four of the Grand Slams that are played and I think he will be confident. His serve has been a potent weapon so far in the tournament and he will feel that it is a shot that can pressure Andrey Rublev who has an aggressive style that is not always best suited to the slower courts.
In the lead up to the French Open, Andrey Rublev has had the very slight edge on the serve compared with Marin Cilic and the former has been serving well himself in this tournament. That is going to give him a chance, but in the last four Rounds, Marin Cilic has had a considerable edge when it comes to the return of serve and I really do think that makes the difference in what could be a close, competitive Quarter Final.
Andrey Rublev has won four of the six previous matches between the pair, but Marin Cilic won the most recent in four sets at the Australian Open. All of the Rublev wins have come on the hard courts, but Marin Cilic won the sole clay match back in 2015, although that was a long time ago and is unlikely to be a factor in the outcome of this one.
However, I do think Marin Cilic is playing strong clay court tennis and his performance in this tournament has been better than Andrey Rublev. I doubt Cilic is as impressive as he was against Daniil Medvedev, but the edge on the return may see him get the better of Andrey Rublev at a second Grand Slam in succession in 2022 and the underdog looks a solid price to back.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Holger Rune: The bottom half of the draw looked to be wide open in the Men's tournament at the French Open and youngster Holger Rune has really blown things apart with the upset victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round. A former Junior Champion at Roland Garros, Holger Rune played really well in the win over the favourite to reach the Final from this half of the draw, but backing that up will be a huge challenge for an inexperienced player.
I say inexperienced, but Holger Rune has won a title on the clay courts in Munich and now holds win over both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev on the surface. Those are quality victories to have on the resume and Holger Rune may feel there is still plenty of legs for him in this tournament.
Holger Rune has not spent as much time on the court as his opponent despite needing a minute over three hours to win his Fourth Round match and I think there is a youthful exuberance about his tennis that has to be respected. The clay courts are a comfortable surface for him to play on and the Dane has been returning well enough in this tournament to put pressure on his opponent and break down their game.
There is nothing to lose for Holger Rune, but he has to show some mental strength- a first Grand Slam Quarter Final is tough enough to deal with, but also trying to back up a big win at this level has proven to be a tough task for so many players down the years.
At least Holger Rune is facing an opponent in Casper Ruud who is also playing in a maiden Grand Slam Quarter Final.
The Norwegian has long played his best tennis on the clay courts and the draw does feel like it has opened up for him with Tsitsipas being dumped out of the French Open in the last Round. Casper Ruud will have to deal with the additional pressure that comes from expectation, but he has served well enough to believe in his game and I think that will be the key shot in this match.
If Ruud is able to serve well, I do think it will put pressure on the Holger Rune serve and the higher Ranked player can exert his control on the match. Being on the Night Session is perhaps not ideal for Casper Ruud with the serve likely to be affected, but he should be able to get into the Holger Rune serve too and I do think he is currently the superior clay courter of the two, although the 'x factor' is how well Casper Ruud can deal with the greater expectations that may be on his shoulders.
He has also spent plenty of time on the courts in the opening four wins and Casper Ruud has only won a single match in straight sets.
It is a concern, but Casper Ruud should also hold a slight mental edge having beaten Holger Rune in all three previous matches with all of those being played on the clay courts. The two wins in 2021 were very comfortable for Casper Ruud, but their match at the Monte Carlo Masters in April was much more competitive even though the Norwegian was able to come through in straight sets.
Casper Ruud had the slight edge behind serve in that tight two set win, and I think that is going to be the key to the outcome of this one too. He has broken Holger Rune at least four times in all of their three previous matches on the red dirt and I think Ruud is going to have the superior experience to earn a victory in three or four sets.
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Veronika Kudermetova: The top of the Women's Tour is extremely vulnerable and it has led to plenty of surprise names when it comes to the business end of any tournament played over the last couple of years.
Grand Slams are no different with the best of three set format meaning there isn't a chance for the top names to turn things around as they can on the Men's side of the tournament at this level. Even if there was, the top of the WTA Tour is not loaded with players capable of stringing together wins outside of Iga Swiatek.
For fans it may be a concern, but for players currently performing there has to be a sense of opportunity. Coco Gauff made that clear when she mentioned Emma Raducanu's win at the US Open and how it just underlines the chances for every player in the Grand Slam that they could produce a career-changing win of their own.
Both of these Quarter Finalists have to feel the same with neither Daria Kasatkina nor Veronika Kudermetova being high on anyone's list as a realistic potential winner. That means there will be some tension and nerves to deal with, although Daria Kasatkina did reach the Quarter Final at the French Open and Wimbledon previously.
Those are a couple of experiences that could give Kasatkina the edge over her compatriot, especially as Veronika Kudermetova has never been beyond the Third Round at a Grand Slam, let alone the Fourth Round.
Veronika Kudermetova did reach the Final in Istanbul on the clay, but she had been in poor form going into the French Open. The serve has been important for the higher Ranked Russian of the two, but her numbers have not been overwhelming and it feels like she has won the big points consistently in this tournament.
She won 60% of service points against Madison Keys and 58% against a compromised Paula Badosa, but Veronika Kudermetova will be challenged much more by Daria Kasatkina who has been dominating on that side of the court at the French Open. Even before the tournament, Daria Kasatkina had won 49% of return points played on the clay courts in 2022, and she has matched or better than number in all four of her wins here.
The Daria Kasatkina serve is a weakness and it is a shot that can be attacked by someone as aggressive as Veronika Kudermetova, but you have to feel the former is going to win the rallies once they develop. It means pressure on Kudermetova to try and win points as soon as she can, but that won't be easy against a mover like Kasatkina on this surface and I do think the lower Ranked player is deserving of her spot as the favourite.
In their sole previous match on the hard courts of St Petersburg in 2021, it was Daria Kasatkina who came out on top in a three setter. That is a match that was played on a surface that both have been performing at a similar level on, but this is on the red dirt and that is a surface that should give Daria Kasatkina an edge.
Veronika Kudermetova has had the tougher matches in terms of Rankings, but she benefited from Paula Badosa's injury and this is a much tougher match than even someone like Madison Keys can bring on a clay court. With the numbers being produced in this tournament, Daria Kasatkina has the advantage and I think she can cover this spread even if the match has to go the distance to find a winner.
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: A first dropped set in ten matches had people wondering if there was about to be the biggest of upsets in the French Open this season and that despite the huge amount of upsets that have already been seen on the Women's side of the draw.
The rally from Iga Swiatek will stand her in good stead, and most Grand Slam Champions do overcome one or two awkward moments on their way to winning a title. The current World Number 1 also admitted that she needed to give herself a talking to after making some bad decisions on the court and playing some poor tennis at key times in the first set in the Fourth Round, but I also think there was an aspect of playing an opponent for the first time.
It won't be the case in this Quarter Final and Iga Swiatek should be more comfortable with what is going to be coming from the other side of the court.
Much depends on how Swiatek is going to be handling the pressure- unlike the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, Iga Swiatek has only won a single Grand Slam title and she isn't as experienced as some may think with a single Quarter Final and Semi Final at this level since winning the French Open in 2020.
That inexperience has perhaps shown up in back to back Rounds where Iga Swiatek has been far from her best and it is possible that all of the upsets in the Women's tournament have been playing on her mind.
At least in this Quarter Final Iga Swiatek will be going up against an opponent she beat pretty comfortably on a hard court earlier this season. That win over Jessica Pegula came on the latter's favoured surface, but the American has played well on the clay over the last two months and she will feel she has nothing to lose in this Quarter Final which could make her dangerous.
While I have to say that Iga Swiatek's level has dropped considerably in the last two Rounds, she has still been playing really well and Jessica Pegula will have to raise her own level if she is going to make this competitive.
In the last Round Jessica Pegula was fortunate to win the big points to edge past Irina-Camelia Begu, but she did not return as well as she would have liked in that win. I do expect Pegula to get plenty of balls back in play in this Quarter Final, but the key for the underdog is serving at her best to try and keep Iga Swiatek at bay.
When these two met in Miami, Iga Swiatek created sixteen break points and she was able to save four of the seven break points faced. This is the third Quarter Final that Jessica Pegula has played at Grand Slam level, so she has the experience needed, but I am not sure World Number 11 can play the clay court tennis she will need for as long as she needs to keep this competitive.
The World Number 1 has not served as well as she would have liked in the last Round, but she continues to be a very tough opponent to face when it comes to the return of serve and I think that is where Iga Swiatek is able to exert the pressure to pull clear of Jessica Pegula. The level in the last couple of Rounds might be concerning compared to how well we have seen Iga Swiatek play, but it is still a very strong level and she has been in a position of control even when it feels like the matches have been much closer than expected.
Jessica Pegula could make this close if she can attack the Swiatek second serve and get on top of the rallies, but I think that will last a set and eventually the top Seed can pull clear for another solid win on her way through to the Semi Final.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
French Open Update: 47-53, - 20.05 Units (198 Units Staked, - 10.13% Yield)
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