Conditions look warmer towards the end of the week, but it could be another wet Wednesday which will mean rain delays and matches perhaps being held over to Thursday. As long as the Second Round matches are completed by Thursday evening, all of these events should be able to be completed without the need for anyone to win twice in a single day.
The format of some of the events being played this week means there have been Byes offered out to the top names that have chosen to take part in the days following the end of the French Open.
Some of those are due out on the courts on Wednesday, including a returning Matteo Berrettini who missed the entirety of the clay court season and who has not played since the Indian Wells Masters in March. The Italian is going to suffer a significant drop in the World Rankings in the weeks ahead having won the title at Queens Club last year and followed up with a Runner Up spot at Wimbledon, but his foremost focus will be to get healthier and return to his best tennis as soon as possible.
Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: Injury forced Jan-Lennard Struff to miss the clay court season and he had last been in action at the Miami Masters in March. The clay courts have been a productive surface for the German so it would have been a blow to miss the last two months, but Jan-Lennard Struff returned in Stuttgart and battled very hard to win his First Round match in three tight sets.
His World Ranking has slipped back outside the top 100 after a 1-9 start to the season with Jan-Lennard Struff losing nine matches in a row before deciding he needed to reset before returning to the Tour.
Whatever had been ailing Jan-Lennard Struff saw him fail to complete his match in Miami and you have to imagine there has been a slight loss of confidence with the losses piling up.
The win in the First Round here will offer a boost, but Jan-Lennard Struff was forced to spend over two hours on the court and it will be a tough recovery time for someone who has been off the Tour for as long as he has.
Facing someone like Lorenzo Sonego will be an additional challenge after the Italian found a liking to the grass courts in 2019. He backed that up with an impressive 2021 on the grass too and Lorenzo Sonego has beaten Benoit Paire in the First Round, an opponent who should be well suited to the surface.
Jan-Lennard Struff has largely not enjoyed his time on the grass courts- he gets more out of the serve, but his return has really been impacted on the surface and Struff is not likely to get much change out of the Lorenzo Sonego serve.
The higher Ranked player has a considerable edge on the return of serve on this surface and I think that makes the difference for Lorenzo Sonego who can book his place in the Stuttgart Quarter Final.
Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: If you are solely basing Denis Shapovalov's ability to play on the grass courts from his attributes, you would think he has a pretty solid game to play on this surface.
After a couple of seasons where the lefty failed to make a big impact in grass court tournaments, Denis Shapovalov reached the Semi Final at both Queens Club and Wimbledon in 2021 having been a Quarter Finalist in Stuttgart. The defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Wimbledon Semi Final was after three hugely competitive sets and Denis Shapovalov may be looking forward to returning onto this surface after a disappointing First Round loss at Roland Garros.
Take away the upset over a limping Rafael Nadal in Rome and you would have to say the clay court season was a disappointment overall for the young Canadian who has yet to really deliver on the promise he has.
While the serve remains a big weapon for him, Denis Shapovalov has struggled with his return and the best approach to that part of his tennis and it is especially telling when you play on the faster surfaces. A first match back on the grass courts could also mean an adjustment period for Denis Shapovalov and I do thin he could have asked for an easier match than facing home player Oscar Otte.
The German was a deserved winner in the First Round against his compatriot and Oscar Otte reached the Second Round at Wimbledon last year after coming through the Qualifiers. That was the sole grass court tournament played by Otte, but he has improved his World Ranking over the last twelve months and that earned him direct entry into the Stuttgart main draw.
It was the serve that proved to be a big weapon for Oscar Otte in his run in SW19, and he will need to use that shot to try and put his higher Ranked opponent under pressure. Serving well could also frustrate Denis Shapovalov who has not been winning consistently and Oscar Otte has held 90% of his service games played on the grass over the last twelve months.
Last season it was Andy Murray who took five sets to end the Otte run and I do think his numbers have largely been produced against players Ranked much lower than Denis Shapovalov. However, he is facing someone who has had issues with his own return and a first match on the surface could leave Denis Shapovalov a little vulnerable if Oscar Otte serves anywhere near where he can.
I do think Shapovalov will be rolling through plenty of his service games too, and the feeling is that this Second Round match could go plenty long. With at least one tie-breaker expected, I think two strong servers can get through service games quickly enough to move into a position to cover this number of games set for the total.
MY PICKS: Lorenzo Sonego - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Oscar Otte-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kamil Majchrzak + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.88 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16% Yield)
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