NBA Finals Picks 2022- Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics
When the PlayOff brackets were set several weeks ago, it felt this was the most likely of the NBA Finals and that has come to fruition.
However, there is no doubt that the challenges have been much tougher for the Boston Celtics than the Golden State Warriors with the loaded Eastern Conference meaning three tough opponents were faced.
Of course they needed to win two Game 7s and you do have to wonder if that means the Boston Celtics are battle-hardened or potentially fatigued when it comes to the NBA Finals.
Things went smoothly for the Golden State Warriors and they benefited from the potential problematic opponents falling away before facing the Warriors. With an experienced rotation, the Warriors will be heading into the NBA Finals as the favourites, but this feels like it could be a close Series.
All of the Picks from the NBA Finals will be contained in this one thread with the games to be played between Thursday 2nd June and Sunday 19th June when Game 7 will be scheduled if the NBA Finals needs it.
Thursday 2nd June
Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 1 Pick: This feels like a NBA Finals that does legitimately feature the two best teams we could have seen and I am really looking forward to the Series between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors.
Most fans love watching the superstars take over games with their Offensive prowess, but what makes this Series so fascinating is it involves two of the very best Defensive teams in the NBA too. The pressure will be on the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors and Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics to try and find a way to show that they can still find the holes on the other team to score the points needed to win each game.
With the Western Conference Finals wrapped up in five games, the Golden State Warriors have had plenty of time to prepare for this opening game of the NBA Finals.
They have clearly been able to use that effectively having had Gary Payton II, Otto Porter Jr and Andre Iguodala all back from injury ailments and all look to be ready to suit up for this Game 1. It is very important for the Warriors to have these strong Defensive players back in the rotation as they look to hold onto home court advantage and I do think these three will just ease the pressure on the very top players and allow them to play their Offensive basketball with some freedom from working as hard on the other side of the court.
That should mean Steph Curry and Klay Thompson are able to get going, but the Warriors also benefit from having players like Andrew Wiggins and Jordan Poole who can step up and produce Offensively when the two big stars are being closed down. They are clearly being trusted by the veteran Champions on the roster and that makes Golden State very dangerous and tough to beat.
It has been a relatively easy path for the Golden State Warriors back to the NBA Finals, but there is no doubting how tough the Boston Celtics will feel their own run has made them. After crushing the Brooklyn Nets, Boston have won a Game 7 in both the Conference Semi Finals and Eastern Conference Finals with the wins over the last two Champions of the Eastern Conference backing up their belief.
Like the Golden State Warriors, the Celtics have two standout players in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum and they are going to be the key to any success in the NBA Finals. But also like the Warriors, the Celtics have had some talented role players step up and put up some big points when they have been needed and the likes of Marcus Smart and Al Horford will be vital for the Boston Celtics.
Three point shooting is going to be so important for both teams and it could mean there are some swings in momentum throughout the Finals, but I do think the emotion of another Game 7 could work against the Celtics in Game 1, even having a number of days off since the win over the Miami Heat.
While the Celtics have won some big road games throughout their PlayOffs run, the Golden State Warriors have proven to be very difficult to beat here.
I think that also shows up and home teams are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight Game 1s of the NBA Finals.
Small home favourites have been in a poor run in the NBA Finals, which is a concern when you know how good the Boston Celtics can be, but Golden State have been so strong in Chase Center and they have covered in their last four as the home favourite.
Playing off a Game 7 has been historically tough for teams in Game 1 of the next Series and the Boston Celtics felt that in the Eastern Conference Finals as they were outplayed in the Third Quarter by the Miami Heat in that Game 1 loss. The Celtics have been a road underdog to back throughout their NBA PlayOff run, but I think the Golden State Warriors will have a bit too much in the opening of the NBA Finals and can move into a position to cover.
Boston are 8-1-1 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog, but that loss came in Game 1 in the Eastern Conference Finals after the Game 7 victory over the Milwaukee Bucks and I will get behind the Golden State Warriors in the first of the NBA Finals games.
Sunday 5th June
Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 2 Pick: A strong Third Quarter looked to have put the Golden State Warriors in a perfect position to win Game 1 of the NBA Finals, but not many would have believed what they were about to see in the Fourth Quarter.
The Boston Celtics hit seven straight three-pointers to open the Fourth Quarter as the likes of Derrick White and Al Horford stepped up to make up for the struggling Jayson Tatum and the Celtics overcame a huge deficit to pull away for the road win. Stealing home court may have the Celtics heading into Game 2 with a feeling they are playing with 'house money', but I also think there will be a big reaction from the experienced Golden State Warriors.
You have to wonder if the Celtics can get the same kind of shooting effort for a second game in a row in the NBA Finals having secured 51% of their three pointers being drained. Al Horford, Derrick White, Marcus Smart and Payton Pritchard combined for 18/26 from the distance and I do think that is a figure that will be hard to replicate from game to game.
Some of the looks were wide open so you do have to wonder if Steve Kerr and the Warriors are game-planning to live and die by those role players and their shooting hot or cold streaks. Keeping Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown quiet is the most important aspect, but the Warriors have to show a bit more intensity all around as they try and force the Boston Celtics off of the three point arc.
I also have to expect better from the Warriors who did not shoot the ball as well as they would have liked- as strong as the Boston Defensive schemes have been all season, Golden State showed through the first three Quarters of Game 1 that they can find better Offense.
Better ball movement and perhaps looking for a bit more efficiency from Draymond Green and Jordan Poole will be important for the Warriors who also turned the ball over a couple more times than the Boston Celtics in Game 1.
You have to credit the Celtics for the fightback in the opening game of the NBA Finals, but I do think they will find it difficult to win Game 2 here too.
For starters you have to expect the Warriors to come out with more intensity and it could be easy for the Boston Celtics to just ease off the throttle having already stolen home court away from Golden State.
The Warriors are 5-1 against the spread in their last six after a straight up loss and home teams have played well in Game 2 of the NBA Finals in recent seasons.
Boston have shown once again how strong they can be when set as the road underdog and they have been a very strong road team throughout the NBA PlayOffs with an 8-2 record straight up in their ten road games. They have shown they can play and win games as the underdog already and I think they are a dangerous team when at their best.
However, I do also believe the Golden State Warriors have been strong enough at home to expect them to have their chances to bounce back and at least level the Finals before heading across the country to Boston. I expect better three point Defensive efforts and I think the Golden State Warriors can get a little more out of their role players to ensure they avoid another Fourth Quarter spot and are able to cover this time.
Wednesday 8th June
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics Game 3 Pick: At the start of the NBA Finals, the task for the Boston Celtics will have been to try and return home in Game 3 with a split of the first two games and thus taking away home court advantage. A strong Fourth Quarter allowed the Boston Celtics to stun the Warriors by pulling away for a big win in Game 1, but the Celtics may feel they missed a trick to ram home the advantage in Game 2.
The game was a close one until the Third Quarter when the Golden State Warriors went on a very strong run and this time they were not going to let things slip.
You can imagine there was a feeling in the Boston side of the court that they have done their job by the fact they decided to pull their starters early in the Fourth Quarter of Game 2. It means there has been plenty of rest for the team and Boston are returning home to the TD Garden for two games in the knowledge they can take complete command of the NBA Finals.
After a tight opening half, Boston struggled Offensively in Game 2 and they will have to make some adjustments to try and challenge the Golden State Warriors who were not nearly as generous with the spaces allowed for shooting as they were in Game 1. It means the pressure is on Boston to find better looks, but they have been a team who have made the right decisions to turn things back in their own favour following a loss throughout this PlayOff run.
Levelling the NBA Finals will have given Golden State confidence, but they will also feel they still have room for improvement, especially Offensively. Take away the Third Quarter of each of the last two games and the Warriors have been struggling for consistency shooting the ball with Klay Thompson yet to have a big impact in the Finals.
Of course the Warriors have the experience and the quality to believe they will be able to put it all together sooner than later, but both games in these Finals have been decided by the impact of the role players.
That should be the case again in Game 3, but I do like how well the Boston Celtics have played off a loss, while the Golden State Warriors have not been the same team on the road as they have in their own Arena.
Game 3 in the NBA Finals have been dominated by the team that have lost Game 2 in recent seasons with the adjustments that have been made and the Boston Celtics have shown how strong their character is off a straight up loss.
Boston are 12-2 against the spread in their last fourteen games following a straight up loss, while they are also a team that have played well when having significant rest between games.
I will be opposing the sharp players in this one with the early money backing the road team with the points, but I think the zigzag theory applies and the Boston Celtics will be better in Game 3 than they were in Game 2. The Celtics are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five at home against the Warriors and they can make the adjustments needed to win and cover as Boston look to take the lead in the NBA Finals.
Friday 10th June
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics Game 4 Pick: Usually I would write out my thoughts on Game 4 of the NBA Finals much earlier than this, but like so many, I have been keeping an ear out for any news surrounding Steph Curry.
He was injured at the end of Game 3 as the Boston Celtics took some big punches from the Golden State Warriors and did enough to rally for a 2-1 lead in the Finals. Losing would have stung, but losing Steph Curry would be devastating for the Warriors in their bid to once again win the NBA Championship.
While in pain and walking with a limp in the hours after Game 3, Steph Curry has looked to be trending in a positive direction for Golden State and he should suit up. Of course he won't be at 100%, but Curry's presence is key to opening things up for the Golden State Warriors on the Offensive side of the court.
Draymond Green admitted he played 'soft' in Game 3 and the Warriors much vaunted Defensive schemes were ripped apart by the Boston Celtics in the first half and it proved to be too much to overcome. However, Steve Kerr is likely going to make some adjustments like he did in Game 2 and those can at least make things tougher for the Celtics who bounced back from an 88 point effort to score 116 points in their Game 3 win.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown both had big games, but they were well backed up by Marcus Smart and it is key for Boston that the former two players and one other is able to step up for them. The Celtics also had solid contributions from Robert Williams III and Al Horford too, while the Warriors are coming in off a game in which the role players struggled to match the intensity and Offensive shooting of Klay Thompson and Steph Curry.
Much will start on the Defensive side of the court for both of these teams in this pivotal Game 4 and this is the shortest rest time between games in the NBA Finals. I expect that to be a factor in this one as the powerful Defenses step up and some fatigue perhaps slows down the Offensive rotations.
As long as the teams don't throw in too many turnovers, the half court Defenses can make life very difficult for the other, while the referees have kept their whistles out of their mouths and allowed much more contact than we are used to in today's NBA. It means the teams are not getting to the Foul Line as much as they may want and that has prevented games being extended and I do think this will be a game that finishes under the total line set.
Game 4s in recent NBA Finals have leaned towards the under, while the sharp money looks to be with this being a lower scoring game than the layers have set. The bets have been split with the lean towards the 'over', but the actual money being put down is heavily skewed towards the 'under' and I am going to be following suit with the total where it is right now.
Monday 13th June
Boston Celtics @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: After four games of the NBA Finals, there can be no doubt as to how evenly matched the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors have been. Moments within each of the first four games have sparked a surge of Offensive output that has taken one of these teams over the top.
In the two games won by the Golden State Warriors, strong Third Quarters have sparked the turnaround and helped them come from behind twice in the NBA Finals. In Game 4 they showed strong Defensive schemes to force Boston Celtics to go cold from the field, while Steph Curry eased any worries about his injury by hammering the Celtics from the three point range to spark the road win.
The Boston Celtics have dominated the Fourth Quarter in their two wins in this Series, but they went cold at a very bad time in Game 4 just when it looked like they were to take a firm grip of the NBA Finals. Now the road warriors of the NBA PlayOffs have to win at least one more game in San Francisco to have a chance of winning an eighteenth NBA Championship and they have bounced back from setbacks throughout this PlayOff run.
Jayson Tatum has held his hands up and admitted he needs to be better to give the Boston Celtics an opportunity for a road upset. The star player of the team has been outscored by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum has been guilty of some bad turnovers at critical times, which have proved to be costly for the Celtics.
Boston will live and die with the three point shot and they do need a bit more efficiency from Marcus Smart and Al Horford, but they have shown they can recover from losses throughout the second half of the season.
Winning here for a second time will be a big challenge when you think of how strong the Golden State Warriors have been at home in the PlayOff run. The momentum is with the Warriors having won Game 4, but they were not able to build on that after holding the Celtics to 88 points in Game 2 and I do think there is still room for improvement for a team that is being carried by Steph Curry.
Klay Thompson will get his numbers, but the Warriors won Game 4 thanks to big impacts from Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins. I expect the Boston Celtics to make the adjustments to prevent Wiggins having the huge game he produced last time out, while the Golden State Warriors dominated the boards in Game 4 to even up the Finals.
It was a big swing from Game 3 and I expect the Celtics to look for the adjustments to be much more competitive around the boards in this one. That should give the underdog every chance of perhaps winning this one outright or at least make this the most competitive game of the NBA Finals so far.
With a couple of days of rest between Game 4 and Game 5, players should be rested and ready to go and I think there will be a response to the straight loss by the Boston Celtics.
Game 5 home teams who are favoured have really struggled in the NBA Finals in recent years and they have gone 0-4-1 against the spread and four of those teams have lost straight up. Small home favourites have not always been at their best in the NBA Finals and, including those spots with that spread in these Finals, those teams are now 5-10 against the spread in that spot.
This is not a very big spread, but the Boston Celtics have shown their character to rally from setbacks throughout the NBA PlayOffs in 2022 and I think they can do that again.
Thursday 16th June
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics Game 6 Pick: There were absolutely moments in the Third Quarter of Game 5 when it looked like the Boston Celtics had rallied and taken control as they looked to bring a 3-2 lead back to the TD Garden in the NBA Finals. Unfortunately for the Celtics, the Golden State Warriors found some big time shooting from sources other than Steph Curry and it is the Warriors who are now a game away from winning another NBA Championship.
The first half performance from the Boston Celtics was really worrying in Game 5 and they can ill-afford to start that poorly again. Neither team shot the ball that efficiently, but the Celtics scored just 39 points in the first half and that was the main reason they found themselves in a double digit hole.
Role players have to be more efficient with their shooting, but it is going to be a big challenge against the strong Golden State Defensive rotations that have helped the team turn a 1-2 deficit into a 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals. Momentum is firmly with the Warriors and even the big time adjustments made by the Boston Celtics to bounce back from losses throughout this NBA PlayOff run was missing.
We are now in the stage of any Series where teams cannot make as many big adjustments to turn momentum and it firmly comes down to which of these two is able to be most effective as far as execution is concerned.
In the last two games it has been the Golden State Warriors who have found the big shots and the big Defensive efforts at key times to turn those games in their favour and right now I cannot argue against them being able to do the same here.
Golden State have not been as effective on the road as they have been at home in their own run to the NBA Finals, but teams facing elimination in Game 6 of the NBA Finals have gone 1-5 against the spread since 2013. There is a real pressure on the Boston Celtics that cannot be ignored and facing the exit door has proved to be too much for teams to handle in recent Game 6s in the NBA Finals.
It is also difficult to ignore the history of teams playing with momentum going into the final three games scheduled of the NBA Finals. Teams that have won by double digits have gone 7-2-1 against the spread in Games 5 to 7 of the NBA Finals and that includes the Golden State Warriors covering as a 4 point favourite in Game 5 of the 2022 edition of the Finals.
Boston have not shot the ball well as the Warriors have ramped up their Defensive rotations and there has been far too much reliance on Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. They combined for 15/38 in Game 5, while the rest of the team were 16/37 and the Celtics need their star players to be more efficient with their shooting.
They also cannot expect another poor Golden State Warriors shooting day having made just 22% of their shots from the three point arc in the last game and I do think this is going to be a close game which makes the points being given to the underdog look appealing.
Factor in how teams have struggled without momentum in the later stages of the NBA Finals as well as those who are bidding to avoid elimination in Game 6 and I have to lean towards the Golden State Warriors with the points in this one.
The reality is we have not had a close game in the NBA Finals yet, but Golden State have the firepower and Defensive intensity to win this one outright and I do think they are being given enough points to make them count even if we have to see the NBA Finals head back to The Bay for a huge Game 7.
MY PICKS: 02/06 Golden State Warriors - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
05/06 Golden State Warriors - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
08/06 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
10/06 Boston Celtics-Golden State Warriors Under 214.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
13/06 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
16/06 Golden State Warriors + 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
NBA Finals: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Conference Finals: 9-3, + 5.19 Units (13 Units Staked, + 39.92% Yield)
Semi Final: 9-17, - 8.81 Units (26 Units Staked, - 33.88% Yield)
First Round: 18-15, - 0.51 Units (35 Units Staked, - 1.48% Yield)
Play In Tournament: 2-4, - 2.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 34.83% Yield)
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