The last few days have been incredibly frustrating with at least one selection a day finding a way to lose a match they should have won.
It has meant a tough set of results being returned, especially when adding in some poor selections.
Things would have looked a lot different with those close calls going my way, but it is how it goes sometimes and there isn't much you can aside from sticking with the process.
Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 games v Hubert Hurkacz: Over the last couple of years, Felix Auger-Aliassime has begun to make more of an impact on the ATP Tour, although I think he has joined up with Toni Nadal to try and bring a little more consistency to his game. He is young, and that is a factor, but losing concentration within matches makes progress through the early Rounds of any tournament a little more haphazard and could potentially mean Felix Auger-Aliassime is not able to produce the energy he needs to really rack up the tournament wins.
An all-around game has been developed by the Canadian and it has pushed him into the top ten of the World Rankings for the first time earlier this season.
Even now, Felix Auger-Aliassime will be heading into Wimbledon as one of the top Seeds and he has shown a very good game that is well suited to the grass courts throughout his career.
He has yet to win a title on the surface, but Felix Auger-Aliassime reached the Quarter Final in Wimbledon and he has made it through to the Semi Final at least in all five warm up events he has ever played on the grass courts. A win on Friday will keep that run going and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be confident even though he is facing an opponent who reached the Wimbledon Semi Final last season.
Hubert Hurkacz has a serve that should be a big weapon on the grass courts and he has always held a very high percentage of service games played on the surface. However, the World Number 12 has regularly struggled when it comes to the return and he has only broken in 11% of return games played on the grass this season.
That is a number that is perhaps lower than expected, but even in his run to the Wimbledon Semi Final, Hubert Hurkacz broke in 20% of his return games played in the tournament. Overall his return numbers need work on this surface and it does put some pressure on him to make sure he serves well and ultimately may be the reason he has a relatively poor win-loss record on the grass, especially taking away that run last year.
Two solid wins in Halle will have given Hubert Hurkacz confidence, but this has not been a great match up for him having lost both previous matches against Felix Auger-Aliassime.
The Polish player has yet to break the Felix Auger-Aliassime serve, although it should be noted that both matches were competitive and they have earned the same number of break points across those. A slight edge has been with the Canadian's return game, while has shown a bit more consistency on the return on grass courts in general compared with Hubert Hurkacz.
Last year they met in the First Round here in Halle and it resulted in a straight sets win for Felix Auger-Aliassime and I think he can match that in this Quarter Final.
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There will always be a lot of talk about the danger that Andy Murray will pose at Wimbledon having only just missed out on a Seed, but Nick Kyrgios is going to be right next to the former Champion as the unseeded player that none of the top players will want to face early in the tournament.
The Australian looks much happier in his personal life and that has been seen with a more focused approach to his tennis, although Nick Kyrgios is never that far away from having an argument with the umpire or the crowd.
It makes him a character that is going to be much followed throughout his career, but a focused Nick Kyrgios is a very dangerous opponent and has long shown an affinity with the grass courts. He played some strong tennis to reach the Semi Final in Stuttgart last week before being undone by Andy Murray, and Nick Kyrgios has headed to Halle with confidence that has shown up in his two solid wins here.
Beating Stefanos Tsitsipas from a set behind showed some of the new maturity from Kyrgios which has added to a strong game and he is going to be a big favourite to beat Spaniard Pablo Carreno Busta.
While most will associate players from Spain with the clay courts, Pablo Carreno Busta has had plenty of success on the hard courts in his career and putting two wins on the board in Halle means he deserves plenty of respect. In reality, the grass has perhaps not been his favoured surface and Pablo Carreno Busta may also have taken advantage of what has looked a pretty kind draw, but this is anything but that.
The Pablo Carreno Busta career numbers on the grass shows that his serve can be a little vulnerable on the surface, but the real problem has been having difficulty getting to grips with how to return. In the two wins this week, Pablo Carreno Busta has been serving pretty well though with 83% of his games being held, but he has also backed that up with breaks in 18% of return games to just edge his way through to this Quarter Final.
My feeling is that it will be much tougher to get into the Nick Kyrgios service games, while there has been an improvement on the return this week as the big points have been played well.
Nick Kyrgios is still a slightly underwhelming return player, but he may feel he can get into more of the Carreno Busta service games. In their two previous matches, Kyrgios has been able to do that by winning 40% of return points played and I do think the more natural grass player of the two will be able to come through with a win and a cover.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Emil Ruusuvuori: The late finish on Wednesday could have an impact on the veteran Marin Cilic in this Quarter Final, but he is very adept at playing on the grass courts and as a former Champion at Queens Club, I am not expecting too many issues in recovery time.
The bigger issue may be facing a very competent opponent in Emil Ruusuvuori who has come through the Qualifiers and won a couple of matches in the main draw. The win over Feliciano Lopez in the Second Qualifying Round means Emil Ruusuvuori is already used to beating former Champions here, although the rest of the draw has worked out pretty well for him.
This is a marked step up in terms of level of opponent too- Feliciano Lopez is very comfortable on the grass courts, but he is very much in the twilight of his career, while Marin Cilic is coming off a run to the French Open Semi Final on what is his weakest surface. The Croatian is a former Finalist at Wimbledon and the grass is a surface that he has always enjoyed having ten matches on it last year.
Marin Cilic has won his two matches in Queens behind an impressive serve and you may even have expected him to have a higher hold percentage than the 88% mark put together when you consider he has won 72% of points behind that shot. I expect that to be a key part of his tennis in the very hot conditions expected in London on Friday, while Marin Cilic has backed that up by breaking his first two opponents at least twice.
We know how experienced Marin Cilic is on the grass, but that is not the same for Emil Ruusuvuori who is enjoying this week. More than half of his career wins on the grass have been earned over the last week, while the Ruusuvuori serve has been working really well on the grass in the two tournaments has competed in over the last couple of weeks.
However, it has to be accepted that some of those numbers can be easily skewed by one or two really strong performances and I think that is the case for the Finnish player. I do think there is a proper player in Emil Ruusuvuori and one we will see competing in big tournaments throughout his career, but he was well beaten by Ilya Ivashka last week in Hertogenbosch and I do think the grass court nous of Marin Cilic is a huge challenge to face.
Both will be reliant on their serves, but the feeling is that Marin Cilic could find one or two more openings in this Quarter Final and that can see him edge to the cover in a tight win. The win over Lopez will give Emil Ruusuvuori belief in his tennis, but Marin Cilic is still playing at a really high level and that can see him play the big points efficiently to move through to another Semi Final on this surface at Queens Club.
MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nick Kyrgios - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Oscar Otte-Karen Khachanov Over 23.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Veronika Kudermetova @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 16-19, - 10.56 Units (70 Units Staked, - 15.09% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment