I've never really understood why Wimbledon insist on such a late start on the two main courts, especially on wetter days when there is every chance they could send one or two matches onto those courts late in the day and play the matches under the roof.
I understand they want to keep the tournament as an 'open air' event for as much as possible, but it is starting to become the only one of the four Grand Slams that regularly has multiple matches failing to be completed in the early Rounds of the tournament. That means some players are going to be forced to play on back to back days and that is something that hurts the Men in particularly if they are dragged into a long five setter.
The reality is that there isn't much Wimbledon could have done about the rain, but wet conditions remain in London until the back end of the week, but the remainder of the tournament should be dry and allow the players to finish matches as scheduled.
One or two upsets have already been seen in the First Round and Wimbledon did provide a couple of very entertaining five set matches on Monday- Carlos Alcaraz survived, but Hubert Hurkacz was dumped out of the draw despite fighting back to force a decider from a position where Alejandro Davidovich Fokina had three straight match points for a straight sets victory.
The Women's draw is wide open, but Angie Kerber and Ons Jabeur both made their way into the Second Round and the other halves of the draws will get going on a dryer looking Tuesday.
Rafael Nadal - 8.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: It has been three years since we last saw Rafael Nadal on the grass courts when he was a beaten Semi Finalist against rival Roger Federer, and a few weeks ago it felt like the Spaniard might be missing Wimbledon yet again.
A foot issue had meant playing through the pain at the French Open, although winning the second Grand Slam of the season is arguably the best medication he could have received. A couple of weeks of testing things out have resulted in Rafael Nadal deciding he will head to SW19 and the Calendar Grand Slam remains a real possibility, especially with Novak Djokovic set to miss out on the US Open barring a late change in governmental policy in the States.
Winning Wimbledon is arguably the biggest challenge Rafael Nadal faces on the Tour these days with the grass courts not ideal for the ailments he is regularly dealing with. In saying that, Nadal has reached the Semi Final in each of his last two visits to Wimbledon and the draw looks to be a good one to open his run.
Take nothing away from Francisco Cerundolo who has reached a career high World Ranking, but there is also no doubt that he is an inexperienced grass court player and facing someone like Nadal is going to be a mental test as much as a physical one. Any clay courter coming up will have admired Rafael Nadal and I don't think it will be much different for Cerundolo, which makes it a challenge to compete against the aura on the other side of the net.
Last year Francisco Cerundolo was beaten in the Third Qualifying Round at Wimbledon and his current Number 42 World Ranking underlines the improvement the 23 year old has made on the Tour. There is still work to do to understand the way to approach his tennis on the grass courts and the warm up events saw Francisco Cerundolo win just 58% of his service points in the three matches played.
That is a number that Rafael Nadal will be happy to see- it gives him a chance to find his rhythm on the court and it has been players that have the huge shots that have given him most trouble on the grass courts in recent times. It is not the case in this First Round match and I do think Rafael Nadal will be comfortable with the tennis he is going to have to play to win the match.
Rafael Nadal has not played on the grass since 2019, not in a competitive event anyway, but his serve has been strong in his last couple of visits to Wimbledon. He has been able to back that up with strong return play too and this is a player who will not take a point off when he enters the court, something that is likely going to wear down Francisco Cerundolo over the course of a couple of hours on Centre Court.
Matteo Berrettini - 7.5 games v Cristian Garin: From the first moments stepping on a grass court, Matteo Berrettini has felt comfortable on the surface. However, his rise to become one of the very best players on the surface over the last thirteen months has been impressive and there won't be many backing against the Italian reaching the Final at Wimbledon for the second season in succession.
He won the title at Queens Club in 2021, but it might have felt like the warm up events were going to be used to just rebuild some rhythm on the court after Matteo Berrettini missed the entirety of the clay court season with an injury. Once again, the love of the grass has shone through though and Matteo Berrettini has won the title in Stuttgart and Queens over the last three weeks, which means he comes into the third Grand Slam of the season with plenty of momentum.
Matteo Berrettini will always be tough to beat on the surface thanks to the monster serve he possesses- in 2019, 2021 and 2022, the service numbers have been remarkably similar and Berrettini is holding 92% of service games played in each of those seasons.
The improvement from 2019 to the last thirteen months has clearly been in the return game and Matteo Berrettini has become an effective player on that side of his tennis on the grass courts. When you are holding service games and winning as many points behind serve at the standard Matteo Berrettini is you don't need to break serve multiple times to win matches, but the Italian has improved to breaking in 21% of return games played.
Scoreboard pressure is as much to deal with as the quality of the Berrettini tennis and it is a huge challenge for Cristian Garin who lost both grass court matches in preparation for Wimbledon. The Chilean is a former top 20 Ranked player so has to be respected, but Cristian Garin has had mixed results on the faster surfaces and facing someone like Berrettini is a huge step up compared with the players that have beaten him over the last month.
Cristian Garin is not expected to get a lot of joy out of his return, but his own serve has been lacking the kind of bite he would want and I do think Matteo Berrettini may continue his recent dominance of their head to head.
The Italian has won the last two matches between these players, although they last met in May 2021, and Matteo Berrettini has held 87% of service games played compared with Cristian Garin's 60% mark in those matches. On the grass courts there may be a wider gap between the players and I think Matteo Berrettini will secure a strong opening win in SW19.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Maxime Cressy Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brandon Nakashima - 7.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Emil Ruusuvuori - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marcos Giron - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Filip Krajinovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jack Draper - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Viktorija Golubic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
UPDATED PICK: Cristian Garin - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 8-7 , - 0.28 Units (30 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
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