The Andy Murray win over Stefanos Tsitsipas was impressive in that tournament and he sets up a big Semi Final against Nick Kyrgios, while the grass court season feels firmly underway as we are days away from the really big events starting before Wimbledon gets going.
We are down to the business end of the events in Hertogenbosch, Nottingham and Stuttgart before that and I am looking for a strong close to the tournaments that have been played this week.
Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini over 23.5 games: The first Semi Final in Stuttgart looks like it could be a serve-dominated outing and I am a little surprised that the layers are offering a total games line at the number they have.
My feeling was the line would be at least a game higher than where it stands right now and I would not have been massively surprised if it was set two games higher, but I think these two have the serving capability of covering this line even if one of the two were to win this match in straight sets.
Oscar Otte didn't have to pick up his racquet in the Quarter Final when given a walkover by Benjamin Bonzi, while Matteo Berrettini needed three sets for a second match in a row as he got the better of his compatriot Lorenzo Sonego. It does mean the top Seed here has spent more time of the court than Oscar Otte even though both have played two matches in the draw, but you can understand why Matteo Berrettini has been set as the favourite having played so well on the grass courts in 2021 and also looking like a much more effective return player in the two matches played in Stuttgart.
While the numbers don't bounce off the page, Matteo Berrettini did create at least six break points in both wins this week and he has broken serve at least twice. He has done that despite winning 33% of return points played, but shows a player who has been able to focus on the games he has needed to in order to make the break.
It is far more impressive than Oscar Otte's return numbers having broken in 4% of return games played compared with Berrettini's 18% mark, while the home hope has only won 24% of points against the serve.
The pressure will be on Oscar Otte to make sure he serves well and he has won 77% of his service points played in his two wins this week, while has only been broken once. That serve can be highly effective when Otte gets into a roll and I think he can force at least one tie-breaker which can only a long way to clearing this total.
Matteo Berrettini is still finding his way after a long absence from the Tour and has won 68% of service points played which has led to 92% of service games being held. The Italian has to feel he can contain Oscar Otte and have a go on the return games, but it feels like a match that will be dominated by two big servers and it may lead to a long match in terms of games rather than time spent on the court.
In their two previous matches, Matteo Berrettini has found a way to get into the Oscar Otte service games, but both of those were in Grand Slam tournaments and he still needed four sets to get past this opponent on both occasions. He has had a significant edge on the serve over this opponent in the head to head so I do favour Berrettini to come through, but it may be after two close sets are concluded.
Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime over 22.5 games: Having a career best World Ranking of Number 175 would be pretty successful in most fields, but in tennis it means a player has not really been able to push on in their career as they would have liked.
At 25 years old, Tim Van Rijthoven may have felt his career was stagnating, but he did reach that career high World Ranking a couple of months ago.
And this week he is having the very best time in a home ATP event that will provide him with the Ranking points to push his personal Ranking up to Number 153 having reached the Semi Final in Hertogenbosch. He has been serving lights out on the grass courts and I do think it is a part of his game that will give him a chance to push Felix Auger-Aliassime on this surface.
The Canadian is having another solid week on the Tour and I think reaching the ATP Finals in Turin has to be a real aim for Felix Auger-Aliassime who is finding more consistency in his level in each week. His serve has been a big weapon for him in his two wins in this tournament, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has struggled for an effective return and that is where Tim Van Rijthoven should have a chance of being competitive.
His own return has not been the most effective, but Tim Van Rijthoven has to be confident with the kind of serves has has been delivering.
It certainly suggests the two players can roll through service games and combine to cover this total games line, which is another that could have been set at least one game higher than where the line is.
Tie-breakers could be needed to separate the two players with both winning 74% of service points played this week which has led to 95% of service games behind held. Neither of these players have been in great form on the return, and Tim Van Rijthoven and Felix Auger-Aliassime have only given up thirteen break points combined.
Of course it will depend on how well they can deal with those pressurised moments and it can see the match quickly running away from one of these players. However, the two have combined for just thirteen break points so far this week with their largely limited return performances and I will look for this Semi Final in Hertogenbosch to have enough games to cover this total set.
MY PICKS: Oscar Otte-Matteo Berrettini Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tim Van Rijthoven-Felix Auger-Aliassime Over 22.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tereza Martincova @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alison Riske - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 16-15, - 2.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 3.52% Yield)
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