This has largely been a week of disappointment for the Tennis Picks, but we have only just moved past the middle of the events being played and there is still an opportunity for a strong finish.
We are going to have the Quarter Final line ups completed for all four tournaments by the end of Thursday and there are some tough conditions to deal with as the weather heats up. Most of the matches are scheduled for the hottest part of the day, which increases the challenges for the players going onto court, but there are big prizes on offer and that should be motivation enough for all still involved.
Ryan Peniston - 1.5 games v Francisco Cerundolo: We have become so accustomed to young players joining the Tour that the American College route is still considered a unique approach to joining the Tour.
Cameron Norrie and John Isner are two players who have shown it is not a bad approach having felt the College scene hardened them to playing pro tennis in a competitive environment, but one in which they were not having to suffer loss after loss to dent the confidence of a young player.
The latest to head to the Tour after playing College Tennis is Ryan Peniston and the British player upset Casper Ruud in the First Round at Queens, although it was not the seismic upset that the commentators would have you believe. Instead he showcased strong character to just keep Casper Ruud at bay and a serve that can make Ryan Peniston an effective grass court player.
Backing up the win of his career is always the big challenge for players, but I don't think Ryan Peniston could have asked for a better opponent. While the British player has produced a solid 5-2 record on the grass courts this season, Francisco Cerundolo is playing in just his fifth ever grass court match having come up short in trying to Qualify for Wimbledon in 2021 and then beating Pedro Martinez in the First Round.
I am not sure how much you can read into those limited grass court appearances- beating an opponent who does not have a lot of grass court expectations in the First Round was taking advantage of a kind draw and Francisco Cerundolo has to expect a much greater challenge in the Second Round.
So much feels like it will be on Ryan Peniston's racquet who has a lefty serve that can be very efficient on this surface. In 2022, Ryan Peniston has held 86% of his service games played and I do think that will put pressure on someone like Francisco Cerundolo still learning his way on the grass.
Wins over Adrian Mannarino, Jack Draper and Jiri Vesely is very solid grass court form for Ryan Peniston and I think this is a very winnable match as long as he has not become overwhelmed by the attention the win over Casper Ruud will have given him. His return does need to be improved if Ryan Peniston is going to really charge up the World Rankings, but Francisco Cerundolo does not possess the biggest of serves and I think the British player can move through to the Quarter Final.
Sam Querrey - 1.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: It has been a long time since I have backed Sam Querrey to win a match, but the big serving American is enjoying his time on the grass courts since arriving in Europe and the form is hard to ignore in a Second Round match like this one.
That is probably a touch disrespectful to Filip Krajinovic who upset Jenson Brooksby in the First Round, but he now faces an American opponent with a lot more grass court experience than the one he has beaten. It was also a first win on the grass courts for a number of years and Filip Krajinovic has become a player that tends to pick up his cheque at Wimbledon and then move onto other events.
Again that may sound disrespectful, but his results have suggested that in recent years with little grass court experience being built before heading to Wimbledon. That indicates he doesn't enjoy playing on the surface, although Filip Krajinovic may feel the win in the First Round is the turnaround he needs.
He did not play as well as he would have liked and will have to serve a lot better if Filip Krajinovic is going to surprisingly reach the Quarter Final at Queens Club. The Serb did hold 80% of his service games played against Jenson Brooksby, but he only won 58% of his service points and the young American had plenty of chances to make that a much more competitive match.
Sam Querrey is not exactly known for his returning prowess, but he has broken in 22% of the return games played on the grass in his eight matches on the surface in 2022. That number is impressive enough when you think Querrey has held 96% of his service games played and he is a former Champion at this event.
The big server has won three matches to reach the Second Round and I do think Sam Querrey's ability to roll through some service games will be very key to the outcome of the match in what are likely to be hot conditions in London. Putting mental pressure on an opponent to have to work to hold serve can wear on players and I do think Sam Querrey's grass court experiences will be another factor giving him the edge in the match.
Filip Krajinovic has beaten Sam Querrey on an indoor hard court before and the grass in Queens is not playing as fast as some of the players have hoped, but the bigger serve of the American can set up shorter points and I think he can win and cover on his way to another Quarter Final in this part of West London.
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 games v Denis Kudla: The conditions are considered slow by the players who have already been out on the court and the balls are heavier than they are used to, but for Matteo Berrettini it doesn't seem to make the slightest bit of difference.
After winning the title in Stuttgart, the defending Champion got the better of Daniel Evans in the First Round at Queens and has seen many of the top names already departing the tournament. Once again, Matteo Berrettini will be considered the favourite to win another grass court event and he has certainly become one of the best players on the Tour when it comes to this surface.
The serve is a massive weapon for Matteo Berrettini, but he also tends to get a huge amount of first serves in play and that makes it very difficult to break him. He did have to face off seven break points in the win over Daniel Evans, so there is some encouragement for his opponents, but Matteo Berrettini is playing with complete confidence on the surface and will feel his serve is one that puts a lot of mental strain on the opponent.
The latest to try and face up to the Berrettini serve is a player who has taken advantage of Andy Murray's withdrawal from the tournament and Denis Kudla holds one win over an Italian at Queens Club this year. He needed three sets to beat Lorenzo Sonego having entered the main draw as a Lucky Loser, while the American reached the Final of a grass court Challenger played in Surbiton already this season.
Denis Kudla has always had a pretty good grass court record and has produced plenty of wins on the surface throughout his career, and he has a 7-14 record against top 50 Ranked players on the surface. While not the most impressive, it is solid enough for a player who has never made the top 50 of the World Rankings in his own career.
The American has held 82% of his service games on the grass this season and Denis Kudla has held 75% of his service games against the top 50 Ranked players faced on the surface. That is a number that will be encouraging for Kudla as he bids to face Matteo Berrettini, but their sole previous meeting on a grass court ended in a routine win for the latter in 2019.
With the conditions as they are, Matteo Berrettini may feel he can take a few more swings on the return of serve than he might expect on the grass and I think his own serve will put Denis Kudla under an immense amount of pressure. The Italian is much improved since these two last met on the Tour in 2019 and even in the three matches in that season, Matteo Berrettini held 94% of his service games compared with Denis Kudla's 77% mark.
I think Matteo Berrettini should be well rested after winning the title in Stuttgart last week and playing one match since Sunday. It should mean another big serving day can be produced and I expect Denis Kudla to play one or two loose service games that gives Matteo Berrettini the chance to pull clear for a solid win.
MY PICKS: Ryan Peniston - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 1.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 3.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liudmila Samsonova @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laslo Djere + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev-Ilya Ivashka Over 21.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 11-13, - 7.56 Units (48 Units Staked, - 15.75% Yield)
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