We have what looks like about as good as a Women's Final at the French Open as we could have expected after the Seeds were tumbling out of the second Grand Slam frequently through the first week.
Both Iga Swiatek and Cori Gauff are playing strong tennis, but they can at least rest on Friday and try and prepare for a big Final on Saturday.
Instead it will be the turn of the last four Men's players to step up and try and earn their spot in Sunday's showcase event. All four will believe in themselves, but there is no doubt that Rafael Nadal is the favourite after beating Novak Djokovic in the Quarter Final.
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Alexander Zverev: The weather looks to be picking up in Paris and that is going to be music to the ears of Rafael Nadal, although he will also be hoping that his Semi Final is scheduled to go onto court first on Friday with heavy rain expected in the late afternoon. Moving this match to an indoor clay court setting will be a change in the conditions that may not be appreciated by Rafael Nadal, but playing outdoors in the heat will be something he will enjoy.
You can't always know how Nadal is feeling from his press conferences where he has regularly downplayed his chances of winning Grand Slam titles, while there is a concern about the number of times he has mentioned this could be his final year at Roland Garros. The foot issue that flared up in Rome has yet to surface in Paris, while Rafael Nadal's win over Novak Djokovic was very impressive and probably the last time he will be such an underdog on these courts until he is at least 50 years old.
Despite the Night Session and the colder conditions, Rafael Nadal dominated his old rival and fully deserved his win in the Quarter Final. It will have strengthened his position as favourite to win the title yet again at this Grand Slam, but the Spaniard is going to have a lot of respect for the capabilities of Alexander Zverev.
The World Number 3 was also a big winner as a big underdog in the Quarter Final, but it was the first time Alexander Zverev has beaten a top 10 Ranked player in a Grand Slam. He won the big points throughout the match against Carlos Alcaraz, but it will be tough to replicate that level against someone like Rafael Nadal who has the mental edge over Zverev.
Alexander Zverev does hold a win over Rafael Nadal on the clay courts, but that came in Madrid where conditions are generally vastly different to the other European clay tournaments. In the other four clay court matches between the pair, Alexander Zverev has won a single set and he was well beaten by Rafael Nadal when they met in Rome in 2021.
The numbers have backed up Rafael Nadal's dominance of Alexander Zverev on the clay courts- while Nadal has managed to continue to win around 81% of his service games in their clay matches as well as the overall success in the head to head, the Spaniard has pushed his overall break percentage from 30% against this opponent to 40% when considering the return games played on the clay courts.
The Rafael Nadal serve has not been as effective as he would have liked in the last two Rounds, but it is still a big weapon for him, while the number of break points being created continue to give Nadal all of the chances he needs to win matches.
Alexander Zverev is going to have to serve as well as he did in the Quarter Final if he is going to have any chance of success, but his performances have been much more mixed in this tournament. It feels like the German was really focused in the match against Carlos Alcaraz having been embarrassed by the youngster in the Madrid Final, but I do think it will be tough to pick himself up emotionally even against someone as strong as Rafael Nadal.
The extra day of rest for Nadal between the Quarter Final and the Semi Final should be beneficial to the thirteen time French Open Champion and I do think he can win this match and cover this handicap mark. Even if Alexander Zverev wins a set, which is a real possibility, I think Rafael Nadal will have the break opportunities to pull clear in a set and that can lead to a strong position to cover in this Semi Final.
Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: The Night Session at the French Open has made it feel like players are playing in a different tournament than when they are scheduled to play in the day and it has taken some time to adjust when moving between those sessions. That may be a big challenge for Casper Ruud who saw off Holger Rune in four sets on Wednesday and he is the favourite to reach his first ever Grand Slam Final.
Nerves are going to be as big a test as playing in the day, but Casper Ruud has played well throughout the French Open and backed up his position as one of the better clay courters on the ATP Tour. His numbers have not reached the level he put together in 2021, but Casper Ruud is still playing at a really high level and the serve has been a huge weapon for him.
He has won at least 68% of his service points played in each of the five matches in the French Open, while Casper Ruud came into the tournament having been at 67% of service points won in his clay court matches this season. Before the French Open, Casper Ruud held 85% of his service games played, but I think nerves have contributed to the Norwegian dropping his serve at least three times in each of the last three matches here.
The margins have not really worked in his favour considering Casper Ruud has only faced 15 break points to see his serve broken nine times- that is not really a sustainable number against him and I do think the serve is going to be very important to Casper Ruud in this match.
A booming serve has laid the foundation for the Marin Cilic run to the Semi Final as he becomes just the fifth active player to reach the last four in all four Grand Slams alongside the 'Big Three' and Andy Murray. It was the key shot for Marin Cilic as he beat Andrey Rublev in five sets in the Quarter Final with the serve particularly strong in the final set tie-breaker, but you do have to wonder how Cilic can recover after being out on court for over four hours a couple of days ago.
At 34 years old Marin Cilic will need all the time he has to try and prepare for this Semi Final, but he will be looking for his experience to tell. Throughout this tournament, Marin Cilic has served really well and shortening the points could be key to manage himself through the Semi Final, but he struggled with his return on Wednesday and I think he will be challenged again by the Casper Ruud serve and quality groundstrokes.
I do wonder if that issue on the return was partly down to coming out of a Night Session in the Fourth Round and then playing a day match in the Quarter Final, although Marin Cilic was winning 39% of return points on the clay before the French Open. That suggests his numbers in the first four Rounds in Paris were the outliers instead of the Quarter Final return figures, but the big Croatian will feel his own serve could be key.
Casper Ruud has the mental edge with wins in their two previous matches, one on the hard courts and one on the clay, although there hasn't been much between them. Both have produced huge serving numbers in those head to head matches, but Casper Ruud has held 95% of his service games compared with 82% for Marin Cilic and my feeling is that the higher Ranked player can edge this Semi Final in four tight sets.
The Norwegian has won four of the five sets played against Marin Cilic, and I do think the younger legs can make a difference in this Semi Final even if Casper Ruud is less experienced than former US Open Champion Marin Cilic. None of the sets played should be won by wide margins, but I will look for Casper Ruud to serve well enough to just hold Marin Cilic at bay as he reaches his first Grand Slam Final.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 52-54, - 12.77 Units (210 Units Staked, - 6.08% Yield)
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