All of the events being played this week are scheduled to be concluded on Saturday, a couple of days before Wimbledon begins.
That means the middle of the week is perhaps busier than usual with the the tournaments looking to whittle down to the last eight ahead of the Thursday Quarter Finals. A busy day means a fair few Tennis Picks from the matches set to be played as I look for a slightly more consistent day after a mixed Tuesday.
Some of the matches have not been priced up at the time of writing and any Picks will be added to this thread as those markets are released.
Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 games v Alex Molcan: He may not be the player he once was, but beating Feliciano Lopez on a grass court is still a tough challenge and Tallon Griekspoor has to be credited for keeping himself focused to secure the victory through a couple of tie-breakers. The raw numbers showed it was a tough day in the office with the Lopez serve a difficult shot to deal with, but Tallon Griekspoor served well enough himself and that is going to be an important shot for him over the next couple of weeks.
Ultimately the return is where Griekspoor is going to have difficulties in progressing his career if he cannot find a bit more out of that side of his game. On the faster surfaces it has been a real issue for the Dutchman and it has been the case during this grass court season with just 31% of points won on the return and that has led to 11% of return games ending in a break of serve.
It has not prevented Tallon Griekspoor winning five of the seven grass court matches played this month and that is down to the 94% of service games being held to build scoreboard pressure.
He is much more experienced than Alex Molcan, one of the improving players on the Tour, although the Slovakian has earned a solid win over Miomir Kecmanovic in the First Round here in Mallorca. The serve is an important shot for Alex Molcan on all surfaces and he has been pounding through those games efficiently in his two grass court matches, although the question for him is the same for his opponent and that is finding a way to improve the returning side of his game.
The two grass court matches has seen Alex Molcan break in just 9% of return games played as he has won 29% of return points played.
This will be a match that is going to be won and lost in the small margins, but Tallon Griekspoor may hold the mental edge having beaten Alex Molcan a couple of times on the Tour already. One of those wins came in Halle last week and Tallon Griekspoor has yet to be broken in their two previous matches, while the inches have been with him on the return.
Tallon Griekspoor has created fifteen break points compared with Alex Molcan's two in their previous matches and that includes a four to one edge last week in Halle. The Dutchman looks like he could hold the slight edge in this one too and I think his serving will build enough scoreboard pressure to find a way to edge past Alex Molcan and cover this line set for the Second Round match.
Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov over 22.5 games: The World Ranking points are being removed from Wimbledon 2021 over the next couple of weeks and that could have a significant impact on Denis Shapovalov who reached the Semi Final at that event. There are no Ranking points on offer at Wimbledon this year and the Canadian has had a mixed season to this point which means a drop in the World Ranking was expected any way.
He will be Seeded at Wimbledon, but it is important for Denis Shapovalov to try and build some confidence and momentum this week in Mallorca. I am a little surprised he decided to leave England to take in this tournament rather than playing in Eastbourne (or playing Halle rather than Queens last week), but Denis Shapovalov is looking for positive results on the court and a change in conditions may suit him.
Last year Denis Shapovalov really enjoyed his time on the grass, but the loss of confidence since then has contributed to him losing his first match in Stuttgart and London. He has not played badly, but the pressure points have not been played as he would have liked and it has meant Denis Shapovalov has lost matches perhaps a little undeservingly so.
Ultimately you only get the results that you can cross over the line and Denis Shapovalov will need to serve well and hope that can put him in a position to win this match. The Canadian has held 88% of his service games played over the last couple of grass tournaments and was at 89% last season when reaching the Wimbledon Semi Final, but Denis Shapovalov has struggled on the return.
He is going to be tested on that side of his tennis by Benjamin Bonzi who has a solid 13-4 record on the grass courts, although the Frenchman has built that largely against players Ranked outside the top 100. In fact, Benjamin Bonzi has a 2-3 record against top 100 Ranked players on this surface, although you should not ignore the fact that both of those were recorded over the last couple of weeks and Bonzi did push Stefanos Tsitsipas to three sets in a defeat in Halle.
Benjamin Bonzi has held 95% of his service games played on the grass in 2022, while he certainly has gotten a bit more out of his return than Denis Shapovalov. He created ten break points against a decent server like Stefanos Tsitsipas and Benjamin Bonzi only faced four break points on his own serve so will feel he has the weapons to try and contain Denis Shapovalov in this Second Round match.
You have to believe Denis Shapovalov will be able to roll through some service games of his own and I do think the limited break opportunities could see this Second Round match surpassing the total games line set.
With a very high percentage of service games being held, I do think we will see at least one tie-breaker on the day and that can set this match on the way to a number of games to surpass the line where it is at right now.
Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 22.5 games: The head to head with Emil Ruusuvuori clearly is one that Ilya Ivashka enjoys, but he has not had the same success against Stefanos Tsitsipas with two losses from their two Tour meetings. Both have been pretty one-sided losses too with the Belarusian struggling with the return of serve, but Ilya Ivashka has to feel that the grass courts could be a leveller for him.
He has long been comfortable on this surface and Ilya Ivashka may have felt he could have had a solid impact at Wimbledon if the tournament had not decided to go rogue and ban Belarusian and Russian players from competing. Some may have felt disheartened, but Ilya Ivashka has played some solid grass court tennis this month and his only losses have both come at the hands of World Number 1 Daniil Medvedev.
Both have been competitive losses and Ivashka has been holding 91% of the service games played on the surface and that is a strong number. He has won 68% of points behind serve and that is a number that will make it difficult for a returner like Stefanos Tsitsipas to break him.
While a still improving player, Stefanos Tsitsipas has struggled with his return on the grass and he does not look completely comfortable with how best to approach this side of his tennis. Over the last couple of weeks, Stefanos Tsitsipas has yet to have a really strong grass court tournament and he has won just 28% of points against the serve and that has produced breaks in 10% of return games played.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has enjoyed facing the Ilya Ivashka serve, but one of those matches was on a clay court on which the Greek player is much more comfortable than he is on the grass.
It will mean pressure on his own serve, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has won 69% of points behind serve and he will believe it is a shot that can contain his opponent in the Second Round in Mallorca.
The serve has certainly been too much for Ilya Ivashka to deal with in their previous matches and this could be another match in which the players are able to roll through service games and need tie-breakers to separate them. While holding a mental edge from their previous head to head meetings, Stefanos Tsitsipas may not be as comfortable as Ilya Ivashka is on the grass courts and that could make this match the most competitive of the three between them.
Motivation could be a question for Stefanos Tsitsipas if he falls behind in the match with Wimbledon fast approaching, but I do think he wants to at least put a couple of wins on the board before heading to London. I don't expect anything less than a full effort from Ilya Ivashka with this being his last grass court tournament of the month and with two strong servers and two relatively average return players, I think this match will surpass the total set for the match.
MY PICKS: Tallon Griekspoor - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Benjamin Bonzi-Denis Shapovalov Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ilya Ivashka-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marcos Giron @ 2.30 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sebastian Baez-Daniel Altmaier Over 22.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Greet Minnen - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Beatriz Haddad Maia - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Yulia Putintseva @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dan Evans-Maxime Cressy Over 23.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro-Taylor Fritz Over 22.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ryan Peniston - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 13-9, + 5.10 Units (42 Units Staked, + 12.14% Yield)
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