US Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2021 (September 1st)

We move onto the Second Round at the US Open on Day 3 of the tournament, although the weather looks like it may take a turn for the worse.

There are a number of courts with roofs at Flushing Meadows, which is great news for the television companies and the fans, but it may mean some of the Second Round matches have to be held off until Thursday when things should be more tennis friendly all around.

Andrey Rublev - 8.5 games v Pedro Martinez: A comfortable win over a veteran in the First Round has given Andrey Rublev a promising start to the US Open and the Cincinnati Runner Up should be far too good for his Second Round opponent too. I would have Andrey Rublev in the tier behind the leading contenders to win the final Grand Slam of the season, but he has become one of the more consistent performers on the hard courts and matches like this one should be right up his street.

The conditions in New York City should not be a concern for Rublev who played really well in Cincinnati before finding Alexander Zverev a little too much to handle. The consistency shown on this surface in recent years suggests anything less than a trip to the business end of the tournament would be considered a massive disappointment.

Andrey Rublev has a serve that can be potent on the hard courts and he has held 87% of the service games being played on the surface. The fact is that he has backed that up with breaks in 26% of return games played on the hard courts too and it makes Andrey Rublev a very dangerous player.

The comfortable win over big serving Ivo Karlovic in the First Round shows how competent a return player Andrey Rublev can be on a hard court and I would expect him to get plenty of chances to showcase that against the Pedro Martinez serve.

The 24 year old Spaniard reached a career best World Ranking earlier this month, but there is no doubt that Pedro Martinez prefers playing on the clay courts. Pedro Martinez has not played a lot of tennis over the last five weeks and needed to come from 2-0 down to win in the First Round here, which means expending more energy than he would have wanted before facing an opponent as good as Andrey Rublev can be.

Over the last twelve months Pedro Martinez has only held 64% of the service games played on the hard courts and I think that is a major worry playing against a returner as competent as Andrey Rublev. The Spaniard is a decent return player himself, but I don't think he is going to have as many opportunities to break serve against the Rublev serve and ultimately it should see the favourite pull clear for a good looking, solid win.

Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 sets v Emil Ruusuvuori: Facing someone who has the kind of tennis in his locker like Nick Kyrgios would have been a tough opening match for any of the Seeded players in the US Open draw. All credit has to be given to Roberto Bautista Agut for the way he handled things as he brushed past the Australian in straight sets and I do think this is an opportunity for him to progress further in the draw.

The overall performances on the hard courts have been decent and Roberto Bautista Agut looked comfortable in the conditions. However, the last month has been a difficult time for Bautista Agut and so the win over Nick Kyrgios will be seen as a confidence boosting victory for the Seeded player.

He is going up against Emil Ruusuvuori who came through the First Round in four sets and who has begun this week at a new career high World Ranking of Number 66. The young player has shown he is an improving player on the Tour and Emil Ruusuvuori reached the Semi Final in Winston Salem last week which will have given him some confidence.

A move from the Challenger Tour to the main ATP Tour has been challenging at times for Emil Ruusuvuori, but the 22 year old looks like he has begun to find his feet at this level. Even then, it is a big ask to beat someone like Roberto Bautista Agut on this surface and in a best of five set format, especially if the latter is returning as effectively as he was in the win over Nick Kyrgios in the First Round.

Emil Ruusuvuori has held 76% of the service games played on the hard courts against the top 100 Ranked opponents he has faced in 2021 and I do think Roberto Bautista Agut will be able to get into some of those games in the Second Round. The Finnish player is a capable returner which could make him dangerous when you think of some of the inconsistencies in the Roberto Bautista Agut serve, but I do think this will be a match where both players can create their chances and ultimately it is the higher Ranked player who may be a little too battle hardened for his younger opponent.

There will be some tough rallies in this one, but Roberto Bautista Agut is very much used to that and I think he progresses in three or four sets.

Casper Ruud - 7.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschlup: A late change in First Round opponent did not prevent Casper Ruud from dominating and pushing his way through to the Second Round. Over the last several weeks Casper Ruud has played well on the hard courts having won three titles in three weeks on the clay and the Norwegian player is someone who wins those matches where he is expected to do so.

A straight sets win took Casper Ruud through to the Second Round where he will face a Qualifier in Botic Van De Zandschlup, one who needed to come from 2-0 down to win his own First Round match. Spending over three and a half hours on the court after winning three Qualifiers is far from ideal, but it should also mean Botic Van De Zandschlup has been given some confidence in his ability to try and earn an upset.

It would be a big upset in reality when you consider the lack of matches Botic Van De Zandschlup has against top 100 Ranked opponents. He is 2-5 in those matches in 2021 and just 1-2 on the hard courts, while Botic Van De Zandschlup's numbers have taken a considerable dent when facing those top players.

The serve can be a big weapon for the Dutchman and that has to be respected, but Botic Van De Zandschlup has only broken in 5% of the return games played on the hard courts in those three top 100 matches he has competed in. The performance in the First Round has to be a slight concern when you think of the way Botic Van De Zandschlup was struggling in the first couple of sets and I do think Casper Ruud is capable of taking advantage.

He has held in 86% of service games played on the hard courts, but Casper Ruud has only broken in 19% of return games. The second of those numbers does take an uptick when Ruud has faced players Ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings and his serve becomes a very big weapon in those matches which suggests Casper Ruud can pull clear and cover the handicap mark set in this one.

I think the early part of this match could be competitive, but Casper Ruud should be able to eventually find the breaks of serve to put a solid win on the board as he reaches the Third Round at the US Open for the second year in succession.

Brandon Nakashima - 5.5 games v Alex Molcan: Two relatively young players are meeting in the Second Round of a Grand Slam and both Alex Molcan and Brandon Nakashima have to be very confident of working their way into the next Round.

Both of these players have come through their opening matches in comfortable fashion and that will only build the confidence going into this match. Alex Molcan has already won three matches to earn his spot in the main draw and his four set win in the First Round will mean he is feeling good about the conditions, although it should be pointed out that none of his opponents in New York City have been Ranked higher than Number 182.

Playing top 100 Ranked opponents is not something that Alex Molcan has experienced too often either and now he has to face Brandon Nakashima who should have the home fans behind him. Add in the fact that Nakashima impressed by seeing off John Isner in straight sets in the First Round and he is set to reach a career high World Ranking after this tournament and the American will feel good about his own chances of progressing.

Brandon Nakashima has been serving well on the hard courts and he has done enough in his return to break in 22% of return games played on this surface. The numbers get even stronger when he has faced those opponents Ranked outside of the top 100 and Brandon Nakashima has broken in 25% of the return games played against those opponents on the hard courts.

Those are encouraging and I do think Brandon Nakashima will be able to control this match once he figures out the lefty serve produced by Alex Molcan.

The Slovakian has held 76% of his service games played on the hard courts this season, but you can't ignore the fact that the large amount of those matches have been against players down the World Rankings. Alex Molcan was beaten comfortably by Lucas Pouille in his single match against a top 100 Ranked opponent on the hard courts in 2021, and I do think this is a player who is more comfortable on the clay courts rather than the faster surfaces.

It may prove to be the case over the best of five set format and I think an improving Brandon Nakashima can back up the big win earned in the First Round as the 20 year old reaches the Third Round of a Grand Slam event for the first time.

MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Roberto Bautista Agut - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brandon Nakashima - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Marketa Vondrousova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 7-5, + 2.06 Units (24 Units Staked, + 8.58% Yield)