I should have better analysis for the games to be played on Sunday and Monday if there are any Picks to be made from those, but the posts should be getting much longer once this weekend is out of the way.
Week 2 was at least not a losing one in terms of the selections, but some late drama did go against the selections which have meant it was not the kind of bounce back week I wanted. Hopefully there will be a little more bounce of the ball in my favour with the Week 3 Picks as I look to get back to winning ways.
Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans Pick: Before the season started, many would have tipped up the Houston Texans (1-1) to be one of the weaker teams in the NFL. They may have benefited from the early schedule which allowed the Texans to beat Divisional rivals Jacksonville at home, but Houston were not able to stay with the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and have had a massive setback to their team out of that defeat.
Losing the game was not a major surprise, but it was disappointing for Houston and Tyrod Taylor that he has picked up yet another injury when earning the starting job in the NFL. It has proved costly for him at his last two teams, but Houston have made a decision that they will not be using Deshaun Watson and it means the Texans will be putting in Davis Mills at Quarter Back.
A rookie going in at Quarter Back having been selected early in the Draft is one thing, but Davis Mills is seen as a project and he struggled in his limited time on the field in Week 2. To make matters tougher, Mills is not surrounded by a lot of talent and the Thursday Night Football slot means there is not a lot of time for Houston to get him up to speed.
Davis Mills is not going to be helped by going up against the Carolina Panthers (2-0) Defensive unit that has shut down the New York Jets, expectedly, and then the New Orleans Saints as the home underdog. Like Houston, expectations are not that great in Carolina, but the team have made a positive start to the season and they are likely going to head into this Week 3 game knowing they have a big opportunity in front of them.
It is the Defensive unit that is making big plays for the Panthers and it is very difficult to imagine Houston being able to break the shackles that they have put onto opponents in the early stage of the NFL season. Davis Mills is unlikely to be given a lot of support on the ground and the pressure will be on him to make plays against a Secondary which has been in top form, while the Carolina Defensive Line has caused havoc in the backfield for the two opponents they have beaten.
The strong performances on this side of the ball have meant Carolina have not needed to score a lot of points, but Sam Darnold has played well enough and I am not too worried that this is the first road game he is playing for the Panthers. The Quarter Back will be glad to be out of New York and he is young enough to stamp his spot somewhere in the NFL, although Sam Darnold is going to have to show some growth with his new team.
This looks a good match up for Carolina Offensively and they should be able to get Christian McCaffrey going from Running Back despite the early Offensive Line issues. The Panthers have been strong enough in pass protection, but they are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry as a team on the ground, although this feels a good chance to get back on track considering how ineffective the Texans Defensive Line has been,
Christian McCaffrey is also a serious threat catching the ball out of the back field and I do think he will have a very big game. Sam Darnold can use the Running Back to open the field up and he should have plenty of time to hit Receivers and light up the scoreboard, relatively speaking at least.
There is no doubting that it is difficult to back the Carolina Panthers as a road favourite, let alone one with this many points to cover. They have a 7-0 record against the spread in their last seven road games, but the Panthers have been a dog in a large majority of them and they have a poor record when set as the road underdog.
In saying that, I do think Thursday Night Football favours the better team and I have little reason to believe that the Panthers are significantly stronger than the Texans. Having a rookie Quarter Back who doesn't look ready for this level is a major problem for Houston who are 3-9 against the spread in their last twelve Thursday night games.
Sam Darnold is a Quarter Back with a pretty terrible early record as a favourite, but he helped the Carolina Panthers cover in that spot in Week 1 and I think his Defensive unit can spark another strong win here.
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants Pick: Two desperate teams will be meeting in Week 3 in the NFL and avoiding falling into a 0-3 hole has to be the only thing on the mind for the players. The New York Giants (0-2) suffered an agonising defeat to Divisional rivals Washington in Week 2 when an offside call gave their hosts a second chance to hit a game winning Field Goal.
It feels like the Giants have been in this position far too often in recent seasons and there is some pressure on Head Coach Joe Judge as they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons (0-2). The Falcons are off a defeat to a Divisional rival too, but they played much better in Week 2 compared with the opening loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, although the Super Bowl window looks to have closed for Matt Ryan with this team.
Both teams are off losing records, but there is more pressure on the home team with the Falcons feeling like they are going to have a transitional year after losing some key players. Matt Ryan still has some talent around him, but nothing like the year the Falcons reached the Super Bowl and somehow blew the chance to beat the New England Patriots.
Injuries on both sides of the ball have not been helping Atlanta and the Offensive Line has been struggling which makes it hard to believe they are going to be able to run the ball consistently, even against the Giants Defensive Line which has allowed 5 yards per carry. Matt Ryan has faced some pressure up front too with teams able to pin back their ears without a strong running game to complement the Quarter Back and that has seen Ryan rushed into making some bad throws.
There are some holes in this New York Secondary which could be exposed by Matt Ryan and the Giants pass rush has not been as strong as the home team would have liked. That should encourage Atlanta who do have the likes of Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts to catch those passes and at least help the Falcons push the ball down the field.
At the same time, it would be a big disappointment for New York fans if the Giants are not able to have considerable success on the Offensive side of the ball and they have had a few more days to prepare for this Week 3 game. The likes of Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay should be ready to play and the Giants are off a big Offensive outing against the Washington Football Team.
Saquon Barkley had a solid day and having a few extra days to prepare his body for this one should see him have another big game. The Falcons Defensive Line have struggled to clamp down on the run and I expect Barkley to set the Giants up in third and manageable spots throughout this game which will help Daniel Jones out no end.
The Quarter Back has yet to throw an Interception, but Daniel Jones has had ball security issues, although I am not anticipating too much of that in this game with Barkley setting the Offense up. Daniel Jones should have more time to step back and make his plays with the team in third and short spots and the Atlanta Secondary is banged up and giving up far too many big plays.
Jones should be the latest to do that and I think it gives the Giants the edge in this game between two teams looking to win their first game in 2021. The balance on the Offensive side of the ball and the additional rest between Week 2 and Week 3 benefits the Giants over the Falcons.
It is not exactly encouraging trying to back Daniel Jones to Quarter Back a favourite to a victory, but this looks a good opportunity to do that. Atlanta are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games where they have been set as the underdog, while the New York Giants are 11-1-1 against the spread in their last thirteen after a Thursday Night game.
Laying less than a Field Goal with the home team looks the way to go.
New York Jets @ Denver Broncos Pick: The Super Bowl win with Peyton Manning at Quarter Back feels a long time ago for the Denver Broncos (2-0) and this is a franchise which has become used to losing seasons. Having a competent Quarter Back would have helped a Broncos team known for their Defensive strength and Teddy Bridgewater has made a good start for them with the pressure on Head Coach Vic Fangio to make progress in his third season with the Broncos.
Denver would have been expected to beat the likes of the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars and they have performed really well on both sides of the ball to do that. Now they face a New York Jets (0-2) team who have dropped both games played this season and who are once again in a transitional part of their history having fallen into the basement of the AFC East.
This is also the opening home game of the season for the Denver Broncos so there has to be a focus on the game which may have been lacking considering how much stronger they have looked than the New York Jets. It is the only concern I really have for the Broncos who should have the Defensive unit to give rookie Quarter Back Zach Wilson plenty to think about.
Zach Wilson had a really hard game against the New England Patriots in Week 2 and now has to face someone with the Defensive mindset of Vic Fangio which suggests another learning experience is heading the Quarter Back's way. He has not been helped by the fact that the Jets Offensive Line has struggled to get team ahead of the chains by finding room for the team to move the ball on the ground.
They are unlikely to have a lot more success against this Denver Defensive Line who have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry so far this season.
It doesn't help that the New York Jets have offered little protection to Zach Wilson and I expect the Broncos to put plenty of pressure on the Quarter Back throughout this game. The Denver Secondary will be even tougher to throw against with Wilson facing different looks up front as the Broncos bring some pressure on him and it will be difficult for the New York Jets to score more than the 14 points they scored against the Carolina Panthers in Week 1.
However, this is a big spread and the big question has to be how likely Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Offense can score the points needed to beat out a double digit spread. Unlike his counterpart, Teddy Bridgewater is likely to be supported by Melvin Gordon running the ball behind the Denver Offensive Line and I do think that will give Bridgewater the confidence to throw the ball down the field.
Teddy Bridgewater avoids making big mistakes and running the ball effectively should mean he has time to expose the Jets Secondary, while his Receivers are likely to be good enough to make the big plays for him. The Broncos Defensive unit could set up some short fields for the Offense and I do think they can score 23 or more points for a third game in a row, which should be good enough to earn the win and the cover.
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread in the last five games in the series between these teams.
Denver are also 4-1 against the spread in their last five as the favourite, covering twice this season in that spot, while the New York Jets are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the road underdog.
The Jets are also 4-18 against the spread when they are playing with revenge against a non-Division opponent, while they are 1-15 against the spread in their last sixteen when set as the road underdog of less than 17 points against an opponent who has won straight up and covered the spread in their last game as Denver have done.
The spread would have been 5.5 points if you had selected this game to bet on in Vegas before the season started, but I think it has moved as it should have done and Denver can underline their strong start to 2021.
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders Pick: The early season schedule suggested it would be difficult for either of these AFC teams to make a perfect start to 2021, but the Las Vegas Raiders (2-0) have done that by beating two AFC North teams. On the other side, the Miami Dolphins (1-1) have split two Divisional games and will be looking to bounce back behind a back up Quarter Back in Week 3.
Tua Tagovailoa continues to be a divisive figure for the Miami fans who have yet to see the second year Quarter Back prove that he can stay healthy, let alone become a franchise Quarter Back at a position Miami have struggled to fill ever since Dan Marino retired. Jacoby Brissett will be given the keys to the Offensive unit instead of Tagovailoa this week with the latter banged up and the Dolphins are looking to recover from the big loss to the Buffalo Bills.
This will be a big test for Jacoby Brissett if only because the Miami Offensive unit has looked really inconsistent. The Offensive Line has struggled massively and the Las Vegas Defensive Line will feel they can at least get after the big Quarter Back, although I do think Brissett is a capable mover with the ball in his hand which just spark something of a rushing attack.
It has been possible to run the ball against the Raiders and this may at least give the Dolphins a chance to get something going in this one, which can only aid the back up behind Center. Jacoby Brissett has plenty of starting experience at Quarter Back with the Indianapolis Colts to believe any kind of rushing Offensive help will get a big game from him.
The Raiders will be able to get some pressure if Miami are in third and long spots, but the Secondary has struggled at times and the Dolphins have a strong Receiving corps that are waiting for some consistent throws to come their way. Las Vegas do not have the same kind of Defensive unit as New England and Buffalo and I do think the Miami Dolphins may also be able to take advantage of the spot.
What I mean by that is that the Raiders are off two very good looking wins as the underdog and the expectation is now on their shoulders as favourites to win this one in their new Stadium. They are also facing a Divisional game on Monday Night Football in Week 4 and so you have to wonder if they are going to perhaps overlook their opponent in Week 3.
You can only respect the way the Raiders have won their opening two games, but Derek Carr and company have not faced a Defensive unit as good as the one they will be seeing this time around. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers units are banged up, but the Miami Dolphins are still playing at a high level on this side of the ball even if the 35 points given up to Buffalo in Week 3 suggests otherwise.
Las Vegas have struggled to run the ball all season and Josh Jacobs may not be able to playin Week 3, and I am sure Miami would love to see Derek Carr taking his chances throwing in their strength in the Secondary. The Quarter Back has played well early in the season and there is some talent in the Receiving corps which cannot be underestimated, but the Dolphins may be able to at least pressure Derek Carr and the Secondary has not allowed teams to throw against them without the fear of turning the ball over.
The Raiders should be motivated after losing late in the season here to the Miami Dolphins last season and they will want to set the record straight, but it is not an ideal spot for them having won their first two games.
Miami are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven against the Raiders, while they have very strong trends off a straight up loss as well as being 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the road underdog.
As I mentioned, this is the first time the Raiders will be favourites this season which changes their mindset compared to the opening two games. Las Vegas are 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the favourite and I think the Miami Dolphins can be backed to cover.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: The big bounce back took a little more time than they may have imagined, but the Green Bay Packers (1-1) have got back to 0.500 in what looks like a weak NFC North. They are back in front of the primetime cameras again on Sunday after the Monday Night Football win, but this should be a much tougher game than the win over the Detroit Lions.
This time the Packers have to head out West to take on the San Francisco 49ers (2-0) who have a perfect record in a much tougher Division, although their two wins have been against the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles. The yardage suggests there has been a little bit of fortune behind the 49ers and you also can't ignore the fact that San Francisco have a very big Divisional game coming up in Week 4 against the Seattle Seahawks.
In saying that, not many would have forgotten how the Green Bay Packers came to this Stadium in 2020 and crushed the 49ers who had been banged up considerably. That is going to give San Francisco plenty of motivation ahead of this game, but there is some similarities with last season as they are missing key players on both sides of the ball.
San Francisco have gotten the better of Green Bay plenty of times in recent seasons and much of that has come down a strong running game, but it will be interesting to see if this team can take the same advantage. The Packers Defensive Line have struggled, but San Francisco's Running Back corps have been hurt by the loss of Raheem Mostert and they have only produced 3.8 yards per carry behind this Offensive Line.
Kyle Shanahan is a fine Offensive mind so I would not be surprised if he looks to make short passes and quick screens to the fast Receivers San Francisco have, and use that instead of the rush. The Packers Secondary haven't played too badly, but they have allowed some big throws to be made against them so this is an opportunity for Jimmy Garropolo at Quarter Back.
Being banged up Offensively is one thing, but San Francisco are also hurt on the Defensive side of the ball and that may not be good news against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers who looked much better on Monday Night Football. However, Green Bay's Offensive Line have been hurt and I do think Rodgers is going to struggle to get a lot of time in the pocket if Aaron Jones cannot help by setting Green Bay up on the ground.
The Packers have not rushed the ball nearly as effectively as they would have liked so you do wonder if they can take advantage of the 49ers issues on the Defensive Line. I do think Jones could a threat catching the ball out of the backfield though, as he was when scoring three Receiving Touchdowns on Monday, and this San Francisco Secondary have taken a step back from last season.
San Francisco have managed to get the better of Green Bay in recent times, but they are a pretty poor home favourite to back and I think Aaron Rodgers will not want to lay a dud on the road as they did in Week 1. Last season the 49ers were 0-5 against the spread as the home favourite, while Green Bay are 5-3 against the spread as the road underdog with their current Head Coach.
Having a full Field Goal start may be enough for the Green Bay Packers here and I think they can be backed on Sunday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: In recent years the NFC East has lost some of the power which saw teams from this Division win Super Bowl titles, but the four all remain very popular and it is no surprise to see a Divisional game placed in one of the primetime slots. On Monday Night Football in Week 3 we have the Dallas Cowboys (1-1) hosting the Philadelphia Eagles (1-1) with the winning team taking the lead in this Division.
The Dallas Cowboys have had back to back road games to open the season so this is the home opener for the team. The narrow loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and then the narrow win over the Los Angeles Chargers has helped the Dallas Cowboys back up to 0.500, while their opponents Philadelphia have opened the season with a big win on the road at the Atlanta Falcons before losing to the San Francisco 49ers after making far too many mistakes in Week 2.
Injuries have piled up for the Eagles since then, but they are still expected to have enough talent to keep this close even if they are not able to win the game outright. They are helped by the fact that the Dallas Cowboys are pretty banged up early in the season too, although home advantage with the fans back in big numbers in this Stadium for the first time in just shy of two years has to be a huge motivation for the Cowboys players.
Dak Prescott missed much of 2020, but he has come back and looked like has not missed a beat, while he was given a huge amount of support by Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard on the ground in the win over the Chargers. That balance is key for the Cowboys considering they are without Michael Gallup and have a less than 100% Amari Cooper taking the field for Dak Prescott to find with his passes when he does step back to throw.
Running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line has been difficult so far this season, but they have lost some key players with the most notable being Brandon Graham. Others on this side of the ball could also be missing on Monday Night Football and that may see the Dallas Offensive Line, which is also not at full health, able to pick up from where they left off last week.
I expect the Dallas Cowboys to have success Offensively though and they have managed to do that against the Buccaneers and Chargers who both look to have decent Defensive units. With the Eagles being without some key players on this side of the ball, the Dallas Offensive Line could win in the trenches and at least see the home team moving the ball with some consistency.
However, I still think it is difficult to back the Dallas Cowboys to cover this number and that is largely down to the fact that they have not been in this situation so far this season. Both games have come under little pressure as they have been set as the underdog, but the fans will arrive with some real expectations in Week 3 and the Cowboys Defensive unit is one that has only been able to slow teams down when making some big plays.
Turnovers are an important part of any NFL game and Dallas have been able to make some huge Defensive plays which have kept them in games they have played. Even then, games have been very close with just 5 points combined deciding the first two games Dallas have played and the Eagles Offense has moved the ball well enough to believe they can score enough points in this one.
Injury is also playing a part on this side of the ball for the Eagles who could be down a couple of Linemen, but they will feel still believe there is enough paths for them to travel to keep the ball moving. The Cowboys have some issues on the Defensive Line which has seen them give up some big yards on the ground and I think the Eagles will be able to at least establish the ground Offense to give Jalen Hurts some strong support.
Jalen Hurts is now the starting Quarter Back in Philadelphia, but the fans will turn on him if he has another outing like the one in Week 2 when his mistakes proved costly in a narrow loss. He should have a better day in this one against this Dallas Secondary, but Hurts has to be aware of the turnovers the Cowboys are creating and has to make sure he is not telegraphing his throws.
The Quarter Back should have plenty of time in the pocket with the Eagles likely to have some success moving the ball on the ground and that should give Philadelphia every chance of keeping this one close even if they lose.
A backdoor cover would not be a massive surprise, but they will have to snap the streak in this series which has seen the home team cover in each of the last five between Dallas and Philadelphia.
Dallas were only 1-7 against the spread in their eight games in that spot under Mike McCarthy in 2020, and you do have to wonder if this is going to increase the pressure on them to perform. The Eagles have covered as the road favourite in a straight up win in Week 1 and I think Philadelphia can make enough plays to keep this Divisional game close in front of the wide television audience that will tune in to Monday Night Football.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
New York Giants - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers + 3 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 8 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 3 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
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