Last season was a difficult one for many sports and it was no different for those involved in College Football.
Firstly it was expected that the season would be cancelled before some Conferences began to think about Spring Football rather than Autumn Football we are all used to. At the end of it all shortened schedules were put together to play in the usual slot for the season, but postponements and Covid outbreaks was part of the norm and it meant an inconsistent season for many schools.
It also made things very difficult when it came to making any Picks from the weekly schedules and it was a season in which I took a watching brief for large parts of it.
Hopefully 2021 is going to be much more like a usual College Football season and that means proper schedules, non-Conference games and hopefully Championship Games in early December before we get into the Bowl Games and College Football PlayOffs. Things have changed somewhat with the news that Texas and Oklahoma are going to be joining the SEC in the years ahead and the whole landscape of College Football may begin to look a lot different going forward, although for now we are at least going to be looking forward to a strong season.
The PlayOffs are also expecting to be expanded in the coming years, perhaps even as soon as 2022, and Week 1 of the season has put together some really good games that are going to have an impact on the direction of the 2021 year already. I think it will be fun and I do think we will get to know a lot more about the teams even at this early stage of the season.
Predictions in September can look really silly even by the end of the month, but my early feeling is that the four teams that will make up the PlayOffs this season are Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama and Clemson.
None of these teams have easy paths to the post-season, but the four Conferences they are competing in look best placed to be offered the four PlayOff places. These are the teams that have to be favoured to come out of those Conferences, although I do think there are number of teams who will feel they can upset their way into the PlayOffs.
It will be a lot of finding out and we will get some separation once the non-Conference schedule is completed. And that is all before the Divisions really get going with some top games to look forward to over the coming months.
Ohio State Buckeyes @ Minnesota Golden Gophers Pick: The 2021 College Football season officially began last weekend, but that was considered Week 0 and Week 1 is when the majority of the teams around the nation get their seasons going. Week 1 begins on Thursday and is played through Sunday and most fans and players will be looking forward to a year in which Covid-19 does not have the same impact as it did in the 2020 season when many teams had to deal with absent players and postponements.
The feeling is that this season there will still be issues, but postponements are not expected to be as frequent as the 2020 season. And with a full schedule expected to be completed, the battle for the College Football PlayOff spots will begin in Week 1 as teams look to make statements to their rivals from around the nation.
In the current format for the College Football PlayOff, I would consider this to be the most meaningful of the regular seasons we see played in the major sports in the United States. One loss can be devastating for teams, even those who have become accustomed to being one of the final four teams and that makes every regular season game feel very important.
If the proposals we have heard about are accepted, the College Football PlayOff will be expanding to twelve teams at some point in the near future and that is going to lessen the importance of some of the regular season contests. This is not ideal for fans, but the big Colleges will be happy with the additional opportunities to play for a National Championship.
The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of the favourites to earn a spot in the final four having fallen just short in their blow out loss in the National Championship Game last season. They are still considered the team to beat in the Big Ten Conference, Head Coach Ryan Day has produced a 20-2 record as Head Coach in his last two full seasons at the helm for the Ohio State Buckeyes, but his team have lost some considerable talent to the NFL this season, including Quarter Back Justin Fields.
The Buckeyes will have eleven starters back with six on the Offense and five on the Defense, but their Quarter Back unit have yet to throw a pass in College Football. There is considerable talent around expected starter CJ Stroud, especially in the Wide Receiver areas, but you do have to wonder if there is going to be some teething problems for a new Quarter Back who will be opening on the road against a Big Ten opponent.
Ohio State were 7-1 last season compared with the Minnesota Golden Gophers 3-4 mark, but the latter were adversely affected by Covid-19 issues throughout the 2020 season. The Golden Gophers had improved their win total in each of the first three years under Head Coach PJ Fleck and won 11 games in 2019 before the setback in 2020, but this is a team returning twenty starters with ten apiece on both sides of the ball.
That is a number that means most are expecting a bounce back year for Minnesota who will be playing in front of their home fans in this opening game. It will certainly be a test for CJ Stroud throwing against an experienced Secondary who are expected to be given some support by an improved Minnesota Defensive Line, although the Buckeyes may lean on their own powerful Offensive Line.
Last season Minnesota really struggled to stop the run and the Buckeyes have shown they can restock their Offensive Line which has lost a couple of members to the NFL since last season. Even then, this is a Ohio State team who have pummelled teams on the ground since Ryan Day took over as Head Coach and being able to move the ball on the ground should just loosen things for CJ Stroud to target Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave who might be the best tandem in the College Football ranks.
I do think even the inexperience of the Quarter Back is not going to prevent the Ohio State Buckeyes from moving the ball and they should score points here. However, I also think the Minnesota Golden Gophers will feel they can have success with Tanner Morgan back at Quarter Back after a stunning 2019 season and with Mohamed Ibrahim running behind one of the stronger Offensive Lines in the nation.
Last season the Buckeyes did have some issues stopping the pass and I think the balance that Minnesota will bring to the field will be crucial for them to move the chains with some success. The Ohio State Defensive Line is not easy to run against and they have plenty of talent to fill up the trenches, but Minnesota may just find some spaces for Ibrahim and that should only help Tanner Morgan.
Ohio State are not really a team you want to oppose under Ryan Day and they are capable of blowing out any team they face, despite losing key players from the team that reached the National Championship Game. While having a 6-3 record against the spread in the last two seasons when set as the road favourite, the Buckeyes do have a big game on deck, perhaps even bigger than this opening Conference game, and that could take away some of the early focus against an under-rated opponent.
The Golden Gophers have plenty of motivation to show that 2020 was nothing more than an aberration for an improving school and that should see this veteran team push the Big Ten favourites.
Minnesota are 10-4 against the spread in their last fourteen games as the underdog and I do think they are being given enough points as the home team to keep this one competitive. The Buckeyes may win, but the upcoming game with Oregon may mean taking some of the pedal off the gas even if they are move up by three scores and that may allow Minnesota to earn the backdoor cover at worst.
South Florida Bulls @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: Like many teams in College Football this season, the NC State Wolfpack and South Florida Bulls are returning a huge amount of starters from the 2020 campaign. The Wolfpack have nineteen returners with nine on Offense and ten on Defense, while the Bulls have eighteen returners split with nine apiece on both sides of the ball.
The difference between the teams is that the Wolfpack will be coming in off an 8-4 season compared with the Bulls who finished 2020 with a 1-8 record, while there is more consistency with the former.
The NC State Wolfpack have a Head Coach in Dave Doeren who is in his ninth year in charge in Raleigh and the expectation for his team is that they could be the closest challengers to the Clemson Tigers in the ACC Atlantic Division. They will host the Tigers later this month so it is imperative for the Wolfpack to make a strong start and build momentum towards that game that could be so pivotal in this Division in deciding which team will be playing in the ACC Championship Game and potential PlayOff implications too.
Devin Leary had a really good start to the 2020 season having thrown eight Touchdown passes with just a couple of Interceptions, but he was injured and missed the majority of the season. It did not stop the Wolfpack from having a strong season, but the return of Leary is a huge boost for NC State even if the Quarter Back admitted it was a difficult challenge emotionally to get back on the field.
The Quarter Back can help the Wolfpack improve on their performance last season, while a more veteran Offensive Line should also pave the way for a stronger effort on the ground than NC State had last season. The Wolfpack only average 3.4 yards per carry, but the Running Back unit is much more experienced and the Offensive Line is also expected to take steps forward which should mean a stronger team all around.
I expect the Wolfpack will be able to move the ball against the South Florida Bulls Defense even with the expected improvements of the latter compared with 2020. In recent seasons the Bulls Defensive Line has not really been able to contain the run and I do think that will be a key for NC State to find the balance Offensively to keep the chains moving through much of this contest as they look for a big start to the 2021 season.
With Devin Leary and the stronger Offensive Line, the NC State Wolfpack should be successfull Offensively and that is going to put some pressure on the South Florida Bulls to respond. Jeff Scott is in his second season with the Bulls as Head Coach, but his past experiences in the ACC as Offensive Co-Ordinator for Clemson means he should give his players some idea as to how to attack the Wolfpack.
Jeff Scott will see his entire Offense given a boost with Cade Fortin back at Quarter Back who was a former North Carolina Tar Heel. Injury cost him 2020, but Fortin has faced the Wolfpack before and that experience should help as he looks to take advantage of some of the issues NC State had in the Secondary last season.
Experience may make the Wolfpack Secondary stronger, but even then I think this is where teams will have success moving the chains against them, although this game may come down to whether South Florida can stay balanced Offensively. Their Offensive Line struggled last season, but this group is expected to be better and the battle in the trenches with the NC State Defensive Line is going to be a key to the outcome of this game as far as the spread is concerned.
There is a feeling that the Wolfpack's Defensive Line will be able to clamp down on the run better than they did in 2020 and they will be looking to make South Florida reliant on the pass to try and force turnovers and eventually pull clear of this opponent. Even with the improvements made by the road underdog, you would have to favour the Wolfpack to have the edge in the trenches which gives them the edge in the battle to win the game and cover the mark.
NC State are 9-6 against the spread as the home favourite over the last three seasons and they will want to lay down a marker for the 2021 season. They can sometimes be guilty of playing up and down to the level of opponent they are facing, but South Florida are still a team in transition and I think that will see the Wolfpack underline the difference in levels between them at this moment in time.
Jeff Scott has experience of facing the Wolfpack and can give the Bulls an opportunity to move the ball Offensively, but I would expect NC State to show why so many have high hopes for them in 2021 and they can win and cover a very big mark at home.
North Carolina Tar Heels @ Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: Sam Howell is back to lead the North Carolina Tar Heels in the 2021 season and there are big expectations around this team merely because of the starting Quarter Back. Many believe he could be top Draft choice at the position in the NFL in 2022 and Sam Howell is coming in off a season where he had well over 3500 passing yards which came with 30 Touchdown passes and just 7 Interceptions.
The Tar Heels finished with an 8-4 record and they have a 15-10 record in the two seasons since Mack Brown returned as Head Coach. While on the face of things that may not be that impressive, North Carolina were only 5-18 in the two previous seasons before Brown returned as Head Coach and this is a team that many are favouring to win the ACC Coastal Division with eighteen starters back.
Eight of those are on the Offensive side of the ball in the season after North Carolina averaged over 41 points per game, while the Tar Heels had a really strong balance on the Offensive side of the ball which allowed them to thrive. The Tar Heels have lost their top two Running Backs from last season to the NFL, but they have experience with a transfer from Tennessee and the Offensive Line looks very strong the year after paving the way for 5.8 yards per carry.
You have to believe the Tar Heels can have plenty of success against the Virginia Tech Hokies who missed a Bowl Game for the first time in twenty-seven years in 2020 and who had a 5-6 record on the season. Surprisingly Justin Fuente has not paid with his job, while the Hokies have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball as they look for big improvements on the numbers from last season.
North Carolina's Offensive Line will look to bully the Virginia Tech Defensive Line that allowed 4.9 yards per carry last season, although the Hokies are also hoping a more experienced Line can at least improve this time around. The key for the Hokies is to try and keep the Sacks coming after a Tar Heels team that allowed too many hits on Sam Howell last season and that pressure up front will be key to slowing down North Carolina when they try and throw against a stronger Secondary than we saw last season too.
Sam Howell and company put up huge numbers against Virginia Tech in their home win last season, but this should be closer with the game being on the road.
The Hokies will feel they can at least make some plays to prevent those same type of numbers being produced in this game, while the Head Coach is confident that Virginia Tech will have a much stronger Offensive team this time around too. There is some experience at Quarter Back, but they are facing a North Carolina team with ten starters back on the Defensive side of the ball and moving the chains against them will be a challenge.
A solid Tar Heels Defensive Line from 2020 is expected to be better in 2021, but Virginia Tech will believe they can win the battle in the trenches and that is going to be a key to the outcome of this game. Easing the pressure on Braxton Burmeister by running the ball effectively is important for Virginia Tech, but perhaps not as much as extending drives and forcing Sam Howell and his powerful Offense to cool off on the sidelines.
Losing Khalil Herbert will hurt Virginia Tech, but the Offensive Line paved the way for 5.6 yards per carry last season and they have a capability of another big year running the ball. That is very important to keep Burmeister from having to throw too many times into a North Carolina Secondary which has big expectations around them and it will be the key to keeping this game competitive.
It should be a fun opening Friday game and I do think both teams are going to have their successes- having the fans back is a big boost for Virginia Tech and I can't ignore the fact that the Tar Heels were 1-3 against the spread as the road favourite in 2020.
North Carolina are dealing with plenty of expectations, but they have struggled in visits to Blacksburg and I think the Hokies are going to thrive as a home underdog to open this season. In recent years Virginia Tech have not played at their best when involved in opening games against top 10 Ranked opponents like they are facing this week.
The feeling is that this is the kind of game that could come down to which of the teams hold the ball last and it should be closer than the 11 point win that North Carolina earned over Virginia Tech last season. Both look improved, but I think the skill players that have moved on to the NFL has hurt North Carolina more than Virginia Tech and taking the points with the home team looks the play here.
Penn State Nittany Lions @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick: After the difficulties of 2020, the 2021 College Football season is opening up with some huge games and this is right amongst them. Both the Penn State Nittany Lions and Wisconsin Badgers are hoping to force their way into the Big Ten Championship Game and that means there will be an ambition to join the College Football PlayOffs at the end of the season and perhaps even compete for a National Championship.
Both of these teams will feel they underachieved last season- Penn State lost their opening five games in 2020 and eventually finished with a 4-5 record, while the Wisconsin Badgers were hit hard by Covid-19 issues through the season and only played seven games, concluding with a 4-3 record after winning their Bowl Game.
The Nittany Lions are bringing back sixteen starters this season and the Badgers bringing back seventeen with both teams having nine starters on the Offensive side of the ball. Penn State do have a new Offensive Co-Ordinator and that may mean there is a learning curve to go through, although having a full Spring together and with plenty of time to work with the team the feeling is that Penn State will be stronger.
James Franklin certainly believes so having guided the Nittany Lions to eleven wins in three of the previous four seasons before the floor fell out in 2020. Much is going to depend on Sean Clifford who had an inconsistent 2020 having thrown 16 Touchdown passes, but with 9 Interceptions, and who lost his starting position at Quarter Back for a game too.
Sean Clifford is hoping to have a bounce back season and he does get to throw to Jahan Dotson for another season after the Wide Receiver decided to return to Penn State rather than move into the NFL Draft. The Nittany Lions are certainly going to need Clifford to be close to his best as he faces an inexperienced Wisconsin Secondary who don't have a lot of stand out names, especially with the Badgers expecting to be strong in the trenches again and able to clamp down on the run.
The Badgers only gave up 3.3 yards per carry last season and they have plenty of returning players on the Defensive Line which should be able to restrict the Penn State rushing Offense. The Nittany Lions Offensive Line did not play up to the level we have come to expect since James Franklin took over as Head Coach in 2020, but they are hoping to bounce back and this battle in the trenches is going to be key for Sean Clifford as he looks to be given more time to make his throws to a good looking Receiving corps.
Paul Chryst will be confident of a stronger season for his Wisconsin team all around too and he will be looking to oversee a seventh straight year with a winning record. The Head Coach has Graham Mertz back at Quarter Back and there is an expectation that we will see a lot more from the highly touted prospect than we did in 2020.
He was not really helped by the Wisconsin Offensive Line who struggled to open the running lanes like we have come to expect, although that Line did give Graham Mertz the time he needed to make plays. The problem was playing from behind the chains, but the Badgers Offensive Line is a lot more experienced this time around and they should be able to bully a Penn State Defensive Line which is considered the weakest part of the Nittany Lions team on this side of the ball.
It will be all important for Wisconsin to impose themselves on this side of the ball as they look to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots and it will be a big part of the outcome of this game. While there are questions about the Penn State Defensive Line, they have not given up more than 4 yards per carry since James Franklin took over in 2014 and I think it will determine which of these good looking teams comes out with a big victory.
Graham Mertz will not really want to be throwing into the Penn State Secondary which is vastly experienced and who held teams to under 200 yards per game through the air. If the Nittany Lions can at least contain the run, they will feel they can get the better of the improved Wisconsin Receiving corps when it comes to the pass and that should give the road team every chance of keeping this one close.
Penn State are 3-1 against the spread as the road underdog since 2017, while Wisconsin are 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen as the home favourite. The Nittany Lions have covered in the last four between these Big Ten teams and I think a team with something to prove after the difficulties of 2020 can keep this one close on the road.
I really like the look of Wisconsin this season too and this has all of the makings of a really close, competitive contest to open the College Football season before both face tough non-Conference opponents later this month. A Field Goal may separate the two teams at the end of the afternoon and so taking the points on offer with the underdog looks the way to go.
Tulane Green Wave @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Hurricane Ida has caused havoc for many everyday folks in the United States over the last few days and so there won't be too many feeling sorry for a school that has had to switch where they play in Week 1. The Tulane Green Wave were going to be hosting the Oklahoma Sooners in New Orleans, but instead they will be travelling to Norman and unsurprisingly the spread has moved accordingly.
Willie Fritz has admitted his team are still very keen to showcase their own talent against one of the top teams in the nation and the Head Coach has to be given a lot of credit for the work he has been doing with the Green Wave. They lost the Bowl Game last year to end the season with a 6-6 record, but in the two previous seasons Tulane had won seven games each time and they are enjoying a productive period in time.
Even with sixteen starters back, the Green Wave may struggle to compete with some of the top teams in the American Athletic Conference and that is largely down to their schedule which is rated as one of the more difficult in College Football. Ten Offensive starters returning should make Tulane dangerous, but there is more upheaval on the Defensive side of the ball and that is a problem when facing a team like the Oklahoma Sooners who will be targeting a return to the College Football PlayOff.
Michael Pratt had 20 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions for the Green Wave in 2020 and that came in a season when the Quarter Back was not really expected to start. That means Tulane are really excited about where Pratt can lead them, especially with the consistency around him thanks to the ten starters that will return with their Quarter Back.
Even with all that in mind, it is a big test for the Green Wave who have had to move from New Orleans as the City was faced with Hurricane Ida, while Tulane are also travelling to Norman where the Oklahoma Sooners are returning eight Defensive starters. On the face of things that means an improvement has to be expected, but the Sooners were a really strong Defensive team last season too and I do think it will be very difficult for the Green Wave to move the ball with consistency in this Week 1 game.
Oklahoma should be able to clamp down on the Tulane rushing Offense and even with a couple of key players gone from the Secondary, the Sooners are going to be tough to throw against.
Lincoln Riley took the Sooners to a 9-2 record which means he has improved his time as Head Coach here to 45-8 in his four seasons at the helm in Norman. Anything less than the College Football PlayOffs may be seen as a disappointment for a school that has made its intentions clear to join the SEC in the near future and there is excitement about the growth of Spencer Rattler at Quarter Back who could lead the Sooners to a potential National Championship.
After some teething problems in 2020, Spencer Rattler showcased his talent when helping Oklahoma win eight in a row to finish 9-2 for the season. He had over 3000 passing yards and threw 28 Touchdown passes and 7 Interceptions, but the feeling is that Rattler will improve on those numbers all around over the course of this season.
Seven Offensive starters return for the Sooners and they look like having a top Offensive Line with talented skill players around Spencer Rattler. It is certainly going to be very difficult for the Tulane Green Wave to slow them down and that is mainly because their Defensive Line looks weaker in 2021 and is unlikely to really challenge Oklahoma in the trenches.
With a virtual bye week coming up, Oklahoma may be looking to come out and make a statement for the season and the last time they hosted Tulane they did beat them by 42 points in Norman in 2017. The Defensive unit is likely going to be able to create turnovers and short fields and I do think Oklahoma will be able to score at will with Spencer Rattler looking to underline his status as the Heisman favourite.
In 2018 Tulane were also blown out by the Ohio State Buckeyes as a 30 plus point underdog having failed to cover as a 32 point underdog here in 2017. I do have to be a little concerned that Oklahoma are 1-3 against the spread in their last four favoured by 20 plus points, but this is a team with a huge amount of talent.
They are facing a team that is surprisingly having to travel this week having been scheduled to host Oklahoma, and I do think the Sooners can put their entire focus into this game with Western Carolina next on deck. That should see Spencer Rattler and company rack up some big numbers, while the Defensive unit is good enough to contain the Tulane Offensive output for long enough to cover.
A backdoor cover can never be ruled out in the early weeks of the College Football season with these monster spreads set by the layers, but I like the Sooners as their Quarter Back begins his season that he hopes to culminate with a Heisman Trophy.
MY PICKS: Minnesota Golden Gophers + 14 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
NC State Wolfpack - 19 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Virginia Tech Hokies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 31.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers + 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 23 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon State Beavers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
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