The Quarter Final line up at the final Grand Slam of the season will be completed on Monday on Day 8 of the tournament.
There are some good looking matches to be played in the Fourth Round and I think it will be a day the fans can enjoy.
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Jenson Brooksby: A difficult start was quickly erased by Novak Djokovic as he cruised past Kei Nishikori in four sets in the Third Round at the US Open. The match up is one that the World Number 1 has enjoyed throughout his career, but Novak Djokovic has sometimes found the crowd a little irritating in New York City and he is going to be up against them on Day 8 of the tournament.
In the Fourth Round, Novak Djokovic will be taking on 20 year old American Jenson Brooksby who is enjoying a really strong week at the US Open. He looks like he is going to be hitting a new career World Ranking by the end of this tournament and Jenson Brooksby will feel he has nothing to lose in this match which could make him dangerous.
Jenson Brooksby has needed thirteen sets to move through to the Fourth Round at the US Open and it was a battling five setter to overcome Aslan Karatsev in the Third Round. It was a match that lasted just ten minutes short of four hours, but Jenson Brooksby has spent at least that much time on court in each win so far this week and he is going to be under pressure to produce the same level of returning which has seen the youngster edge through the draw.
He has created at least sixteen break points in each match in New York City, but Novak Djokovic has an underrated serve and I certainly think it is going to be a huge test for Jenson Brooksby to match those return numbers from earlier in the tournament. The pressure will be on the serve and Jenson Brooksby has not really been as strong behind that shot as he would have liked at the US Open, while now he has to face the player many will consider as the strongest returner in tennis history.
I do expect Novak Djokovic to put plenty of pressure on Jenson Brooksby, although the American does seem to have an 'x factor' that makes him dangerous. His performances on the hard courts through 2021 have been impressive, albeit with many of those matches being played at Challenger level, and Jenson Brooksby will have the crowd behind him for every minute he spends on the court.
The time already spent on the court has to be a worry for Brooksby too and I do think Novak Djokovic will have too much for the younger player. The first set could be quite competitive, but I think Djokovic is going to have a big edge when it comes to the return of serve and he may be able to rattle through the sets played after the first one as he looks to reach another Quarter Final at a Grand Slam.
It is a big mark without a doubt, but Novak Djokovic has been serving really well so far this week and his return can put him in a position to cover.
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jannik Sinner: A title win and a run to the Miami Masters underlines how effective Jannik Sinner can be on the hard courts earlier this year and this summer the Italian also won the title in Washington. That makes him a dangerous opponent to any player he faces in the US Open and Jannik Sinner will be confident in his own chances.
The performances at the US Open have been decent from Jannik Sinner, but he needs to be more than decent to beat the Olympic Champion and Cincinnati Masters winner. He needed all five sets to beat Gael Monfils in the Third Round, but Sinner actually faced more break points than he created in that match and it was one that could have easily gone the other way.
Despite the strong performances and results in 2021, there is still a sense of inconsistency about Jannik Sinner and that is perhaps not a massive surprise for a 20 year old with a bright future. His serve is going to have to be in good shape if Jannik Sinner is going to find a way to beat Alexander Zverev who has had little issues working his way through to the Fourth Round.
The Third Round win over Jack Sock may have been tougher if the American had not struggled with a thigh injury and Alexander Zverev was perhaps just being a little humble when he suggested he may have been beaten after the strong first set produced by his opponent. The German had cruised through the first two Rounds in the draw with some stellar numbers on both the serve and return and last year's US Open Runner Up clearly is enjoying the conditions in New York City.
Alexander Zverev has won at least 76% of the points played behind his serve in each of his three wins at the US Open and, if he continues that level, it is going to be very difficult to beat him. It has allowed Alexander Zverev to play with some freedom in the return games and he has created at least ten break points in each match so far in the tournament and I do think his past experiences playing Jannik Sinner will help.
Last year Jannik Sinner did beat Alexander Zverev in four sets as he upset the higher Ranked player at the French Open, but it was the latter who earned revenge in their hard court match. Alexander Zverev did not serve as he would have liked in the sole hard court match, but he did break in 40% of the return games played and over this distance I expect Zverev to have plenty of successes.
Jannik Sinner is a really good player that you would underestimate at your own risk, but I do think Alexander Zverev is playing at a considerably higher level than the Italian so far this week. With the momentum behind him from the Olympic Games and Cincinnati, Alexander Zverev can produce the tennis that gives him a chance to cover this wide handicap mark even if Jannik Sinner does enough to win a set on the day.
Lloyd Harris v Reilly Opelka: This is going to be a 'blink and you'll miss it' kind of match and I am not expecting a lot of long rallies when Reilly Opelka and Lloyd Harris meet in the Fourth Round on Day 8 of the US Open tournament. Both of these players will feel the serve is going to be the ultimate weapon for them and there may be a few chances for either to break the serve of the other which means it is a match that could come down to a point or two in Tie-Breakers.
That was the situation when Reilly Opelka beat Lloyd Harris in Toronto, but it was a day on which the latter played the superior tennis. There was a big difference in their serving numbers, but Reilly Opelka came from a set down to win back to back Tie-Breakers and take his place in the next Round.
The mental edge has to be with Reilly Opelka who will also have the home crowd behind him as he looks to earn a maiden Quarter Final appearance in any Grand Slam tournament. He reached the Final in Toronto after beating Lloyd Harris, but over the course of the last twelve months there has been a real edge towards Harris with the numbers he has produced on the hard courts compared with Reilly Opelka over the last twelve months.
Both are capable of strong serving, but Lloyd Harris has been the one who has found more out of his return game compared with Reilly Opelka and I think he can win this one as the underdog.
Reilly Opelka has been pretty steady with his performances so far at the US Open, but Lloyd Harris has impressed in the last two Rounds with strong straight sets wins behind him. He has been winning more points on the return of serve and I do think he deserved to beat Opelka in Toronto too and Lloyd Harris can earn some revenge in this Fourth Round match.
The scoreboard pressure can be the biggest obstacle when facing players like Reilly Opelka and John Isner, but I think Lloyd Harris has a big enough serve to get into a position to win this match and I think he can be backed as the underdog to do that here.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Emma Raducanu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bianca Andreescu + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 29-21, + 7.74 Units (100 Units Staked, + 7.74% Yield)
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