A poor Week 1 has been followed by a much stronger Week 2 for the College Football Picks and now I will be looking for more from the selections as we get set for Week 3.
There are some big games coming up through Saturday.
It is a chance for some to redeem themselves and others to keep their perfect run going and that should mean plenty more drama having been treated to some big time Football already this season.
Boston College Eagles @ Temple Owls Pick: Seventeen returning starters split almost evenly across the Offensive and Defensive units would have been encouraging for the Boston College Eagles (2-0) going into the 2021 season. They have won at least six games for the fifth season in a row and many have tipped up Boston College as being able to win at least eight games for the first time since the 2009 season.
Some of the enthusiasm may have dissipated after Phil Jurkovec has been forced to undergo an operation on his hand which is likely going to keep the starting Quarter Back out for the entirety of the 2021 season. He had opened up from where he had left off in 2020 after throwing for over 2500 passing yards, but the injury means Boston College will have to hand the keys over to Dennis Grosel.
This is an experienced back up Quarter Back who did tie the single game record for passing yards in relief of Jurkovec last season, but Dennis Grosel will be under pressure to fill some big boots. It may also mean a change in schemes on the Offensive side of the ball with the Eagles likely to lean on their strong looking Offensive Line to pave the way for a Running Back committee that have shown they are ready to produce some big numbers.
In the first two games the Eagles Offensive Line have been very productive on the ground and they should be able to impose themselves on the improved Temple Owls (1-1) Defensive Line. Last season the Owls struggled to stop the run, but they are expected to be a little more stout this time around, although containing Boston College may still be beyond their capabilities.
I expect the entire Boston College team to step up and try and make up for their lost Quarter Back by giving their all to help Dennis Grosel out. Offensively the Quarter Back is capable of making some big plays himself, but I also expect the Eagles Defensive unit to try and contain Temple who are potentially playing with a very inexperienced Quarter Back of their own.
Justin Lynch performed well as the Owls bounced back from a crushing loss to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights by beating the Akron Zips in Week 2 of the season. However, this is another step up in level for Lynch who will be facing a Boston College Defensive unit that may be the best one they have seen in Chestnut Hill since 2017.
The early form is positive and it is going to be very difficult for Justin Lynch to move the ball with freedom like he did against the Zips last week. The Eagles Defensive Line has been strong and limited teams to 3.5 yards per carry and they will be looking to make the Owls rely on their Quarter Back in a one-dimensional manner which will give the Boston College Secondary to step up and make their plays.
Clamping down on the run and forcing some pressure up front has given the Eagles an opportunity to turn the ball over through the air, but the Defensive unit will be the first to admit that they have yet to be tested. I expect Temple will offer more resistance than the first two teams Boston College have beaten, but the Eagles still look stronger and I expect a big performance without their starting Quarter Back.
These teams are meeting for the first time since 2018, but the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six between the Owls and Eagles, while the road team has covered in each of the last four between former Conference rivals.
Boston College have also covered in their last five games as the road favourite when playing off a double digit win as they are this week and I think the Eagles can cover what is a big spread for any road favourite to deal with.
Western Michigan Broncos @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: There is so much to like about this Pittsburgh Panthers (2-0) team who are vastly experienced and capable of reaching the ACC Championship Game. A big win on the road against an opponent from the SEC is encouraging, but Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has to make sure his team remain focused against a team they are expected to beat.
Take nothing away from the Western Michigan Broncos (1-1) who may be the best team playing in the MAC this season, but they were blown out when playing on the road at the Michigan Wolverines in Week 1. The Panthers may not be as strong as the Wolverines, but they have to show the difference in quality between a Power 5 Conference and a non-Power 5 Conference, especially as style points can be important even at this stage of the season.
Winning is the most important part of the game though and I do think it would be a major upset if Pittsburgh are not able to do that. They have eight Offensive starters back and the feeling is that this could be the strongest unit that Pat Narduzzi has had in five seasons, while the Panthers will also be targeting more than eight wins which is the most they have earned in a single season under this Head Coach.
Kenny Pickett is the star of the Offense at Quarter Back, but there are plenty of skill players all around him that he can lean on in any given game. Barring something truly terrible happening, Kenny Pickett is set to become the second leading passer in Pittsburgh school history and any time you can overtake Dan Marino, it means you have had one great career.
Pittsburgh's Offensive Line are looking for a bit more consistency on the ground and this looks a good chance for them to bully the Western Michigan Defensive Line which has given up 5.3 yards per carry. That number is heavily impacted by the game with the Michigan Wolverines, but the Broncos can't sell out to defend the run as they will be looking to try and slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack.
The Wolverines crushed Western Michigan on the ground in Week 1, but I do think the Broncos will have a tough day trying to prevent Kenny Pickett having success through the air. The Quarter Back has been well protected for the most part and Pickett has been able to find the creases in the Defenses he has seen which has helped Pittsburgh move the chains with success in both games played.
I do think the Panthers will be able to score plenty of points, but it is the Defensive unit that is likely going to be step up and help Pittsburgh cover the spread. Once again the Panthers Defensive Line looks like it is going to be very difficult to be moved around and they are likely going to make Western Michigan reliant on throwing the ball to keep the chains moving.
So far this season the Panthers have given up just 3 yards per carry and they will believe they can clamp down on the Western Michigan running game. That will only spark the Panthers pass rush which has been dominant in the first two weeks of the season and the Broncos may not get a lot of change from this Panthers Defensive unit.
You have to have a respect for Quarter Back Kaleb Eleby and the Broncos may be the best Offensive unit playing in the MAC, but this is a considerable step up in taking on a Power 5 team. That was an issue for Western Michigan against the Wolverines and this Pittsburgh team will feel they can make their visitors one-dimensional which should be a key in making some big plays on this side of the ball.
The Broncos are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog, while Pittsburgh are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games. However, the Panthers can be hard to trust as a home favourite, while Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has a poor record in covering the spread when favoured by double digits against Group of 5 opponents.
Off a big win it is a concern, but this is not a look-ahead spot for Pittsburgh so I expect a fully focused effort from them. They should have too much power on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that will be enough for the Panthers to go on and cover in Week 3.
Virginia Tech Hokies @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: The West Virginia Mountaineers (1-1) bounced back from a Week 1 defeat to the Maryland Terrapins and now they are going to be defending a strong record at home when facing non-Conference opponents in front of their own fans.
This week it is the Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0) heading to Morgantown as the team look to continue to cool down the hot seat that Head Coach Justin Fuente is sitting on. This is a team who are bringing back plenty of starters, but who saw their 27 year run in Bowl Games end in 2020 when the Hokies could only finish the season with a 5-6 record.
It is perhaps surprising the Head Coach did not lose his job, but an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels has been followed up with a confident win over Middle Tennessee and that has to be very encouraging for Virginia Tech fans. However, expectations will really rise if they are able to win here and move to 3-0 for the first time since 2017, especially as Virginia Tech have a very winnable game in Week 4 which could see them become the team to beat in the ACC Coastal Division.
No one can afford to look too far ahead after the kind of years Virginia Tech have had, and they can certainly not afford to look past the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mountaineers have won their last eighteen at home against non-Conference opponents and they have seventeen starters back this season in what many consider to be Neal Brown's best team in his third year with West Virginia.
Managing the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be so important for both the Hokies and Mountaineers. The two Defensive Lines have come out with strong performances and they will certainly feel they can plug up the running lanes and force the Quarter Backs to try and win this game with their arm.
Out of the two teams, Virginia Tech have had a bit more success establishing the run, while their Offensive Line has been stronger in pass protection than the Mountaineers. The Hokies also have a fierce pass rush which has opened the season in good form and they will feel they have the pressure up front to try and disrupt the West Virginia passing game.
Jarret Doege is very experienced at Quarter Back for the Mountaineers and he has produced some big numbers in the first two games of the season. Despite the pressure being generated by the Defensive Line, Virginia Tech's Secondary have given up some plays and that has to be encouraging for Jarret Doege considering how much the Mountaineers are likely going to be leaning on his arm.
It will likely mean Virginia Tech are going to need to get a bit more out of Braxton Burmeister if they are going to win on the road and it is a big challenge for the Hokies who won't have played in this kind of atmosphere for almost two years. That can knock a team out of sync with what they want to do and the Mountaineers have a decent Secondary that may feel they can make enough plays to force the Hokies into becoming very predictable Offensively.
I have to respect how tough Virginia Tech can be as a road underdog under the guidance of their current Head Coach, but West Virginia are strong at home. The environment should give them the edge and the Mountaineers were 3-1 against the spread as the home favourite last season, while this may be a stronger team this time around.
Virginia Tech are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on the road anyway and now face a true test of their character.
The Mountaineers are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last eleven as the home favourite, while they have covered in their last eight games when playing a non-Conference opponent at home and being asked to lay fewer than 17 points. There isn't much between these teams, but I think the game being played in Morgantown is enough of an edge with the Mountaineers to be able to back them to win and cover.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators Pick: These two teams met in the SEC Championship in 2020 and it was a highly competitive game, but the feeling is that this regular season meeting may be a little different. Both the Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) and Florida Gators (2-0) have been perfect so far on the season, but there has been a difference in class of opponent and Alabama are worthy of their place as the road favourite.
Losing key players to the NFL is something that Nick Saban and his entire Coaching staff expect most seasons, while Steve Sarkisian has also left the Crimson Tide this summer. Lesser teams will have been hurt by those departures, but Alabama recruit really well and they are always ready to compete, which is underlined by the fact they have been a constant in the College Football PlayOff having missed out just once.
Mac Jones has moved to the NFL and started for the New England Patriots in Week 1, but there has been a lot of talk about Bryce Young and the Quarter Back has not disappointed. He will be playing his first road game, but Young has to be looking forward to taking on this Florida Defensive unit that struggled in 2020 and who have only returned five starters.
The Gators have not faced anyone near the kind of level of the Crimson Tide, but there have been holes that can be exploited in the Secondary. It is very hard to imagine that the Alabama Crimson Tide are not able to do the same with a big, strong Offensive Line able to protect Bryce Young and also pave the way for some big gains on the ground.
I do think there will be times when Bryce Young is put under pressure by the Florida pass rush, while he is going to be playing in a very difficult environment for the first time. Even then, I expect the new Offensive Co-Ordinator, Bill O'Brien, to put his team in a positive position when they have the ball and the challenge for Dan Mullen and his Florida team is scoring enough points to keep up with their visitors.
Alabama scored at least 38 points in each of their games in the regular season last season, while they have scored 40 or more points in 11 straight regular season games.
That doesn't offer much encouragement for the Florida Gators who gave up 52 points in their defeat to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Gators only lost by 6 points in that game thanks to Kyle Trask and the Offensive unit, but they are only returning five starters on this side of the ball and Trask has moved onto the NFL.
Emory Jones and Anthony Robinson have been splitting reps behind Center in the first two games of the season, but the former has not impressed and the Florida faithful are pushing for Robinson to be named the starter. However, Anthony Robinson may have picked up an injury in Week 2 which could limit his impact on this game and it just makes it very hard to believe Florida can score enough points to stay with the National Championship favourites.
It would be hard enough if Jones was in form and Robinson was 100% ready to go, but facing an Alabama team who are bringing back eight starters on the Defensive side of the ball is always going to be a big test. The Crimson Tide may have their best Defense in years and that is saying plenty when you think of some of the talent that has played for this team and I think they are going to make a statement on this side of the ball.
The Gators Offensive Line have been able to run the ball against Florida Atlantic and South Florida, but this Alabama Defensive Line is not one that can be bullied. I expect they will clamp down on the run and force Florida to try and beat their Secondary and I simply don't believe they can do that.
The Crimson Tide are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road favourite, while Florida are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight overall.
Dan Mullen is a Head Coach I respect and he is 2-0 against the spread when Florida have been set as the underdog at home since taking over here. His Mississippi State Bulldogs team were also very strong against the spread when set as the underdog and I think Mullen will have a game plan to make life difficult for Alabama, but the quality between the teams is going to be very difficult to bridge.
As long as Bryce Young is able to handle the occasion, Alabama may just put down a marker for their season and produce a statement win.
MY PICKS: Boston College Eagles - 14 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Panthers - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
West Virginia Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Colorado Buffaloes - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Stanford - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)
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