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Saturday, 11 September 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 4 Picks 2021 (September 11-13)

SIUUUUUUUU!!!

Where else can I begin? It has to be about Cristiano Ronaldo and the return to Old Trafford after what has felt like an international break that has gone on for two months rather than two weeks.

I am fortunate enough to have a ticket to watch Ronaldo for the first time since I last saw him in a Manchester United shirt- Rome in May 2009- and I simply cannot wait. Unsurprisingly my FPL team will represent the excitement and I have activated my Wild Card far earlier than usual as I look to build on a decent, if not spectacular start to the season after three GameWeeks have been placed in the books.

First, the thoughts on the Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There are times when results overshadow everything and you do have to feel that is the case at Tottenham Hotspur who have secured three 1-0 Premier League wins in a row. They are the only team with a perfect record in the top flight and they are considered odds on to win this fourth fixture, but a deeper look at the actual performances suggest there has been some fortune around the results.

Winning games on the pitch is what matters, but the performances have to be sustainable and so there is work for Nuno Espirito Santo to do. He will be boosted by Harry Kane committing his short-term future to the club, but the manager will not have enjoyed the international break very much.

Three players are going to have to quarantine having represented South American nations in the international break, while both Steven Bergwijn and Heung-Min Son are doubts and could be vital losses if they cannot go this weekend.

Even then, Spurs are considered the favourites against a Crystal Palace team which is still finding its feet under new manager Patrick Vieira. The last couple of performances have been better and Vieira will have been pleased with the attacking display in the 2-2 draw at West Ham United two weeks ago, and that certainly gives Patrick Vieira something to build upon.

There have been some signs that the defensive capabilities of the Crystal Palace squad are still there even after the departure of Roy Hodgson and I do think this is a team that can pick up a positive result.

The first goal is going to be important in this opening Premier League fixture of this weekend, but I do think Crystal Palace are being underestimated. Better finishing from Manchester City and Wolves would have seen them pick up results against Spurs and I do think the latter are going to step back from the early season form unless vastly improving.

With a long injury list to deal with, I think Crystal Palace can take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur with the home supporters firmly behind them. The Eagles are unbeaten in 3 at home in all competitions against Tottenham Hotspur and they can extend that run to another game on Saturday with the attacking players looking like they can build on the performance at the London Stadium.


Arsenal v Norwich City Pick: Three Premier League games, zero points and a minus nine goal difference.

A 6-0 win over a Championship club in the League Cup Second Round.

Arsenal and Norwich City have made very similar starts to the 2021/22 season as two of the three clubs that have yet to produce a Premier League point this season. Both have also suffered a 5-0 hammering at Champions Manchester City and this is a big weekend for Arsenal and Norwich City as they look to pick up points from a better looking set of fixtures than they had to deal with in August.

The pressure is more squarely on Mikel Arteta with rumours that Arsenal are already sounding out replacements. He will be boosted by a more winnable fixture than the last two in the Premier League and the manager will also be able to call on the likes of Ben White, Thomas Partey and Nicolas Pepe this weekend which should give the Arsenal squad a boost.

They did have a strong second half of the season in the Premier League last time around and I do think Arsenal can offer more in fixtures like this rather than facing the top six clubs. The 2-0 defeat at Brentford was a huge disappointment, but Arsenal were missing key players for that one and they look healthier all around.

Norwich City have also been left pointless after being handed a start that saw them face three top five clubs from last season in August. Daniel Farke will have been pleased with some of the attacking play against Liverpool and Leicester City, but Norwich City will have to be a lot better defensively if they are going to avoid a second relegation in three seasons.

I expect Arsenal to have been working on their own defensive shape over the last two weeks and having Ben White and Thomas Partey back could be key for the team. They have enough attacking quality to feel they can open up this Norwich City team who have lost their last 7 away Premier League games and I do think Arsenal are going to produce a big result to keep the wolves from the door for their manager.

The visitors should pose one or two problems, but Arsenal have beaten Norwich City 5 times in a row at home and I expect them to be able to do that again on Saturday.


Brentford v Brighton Pick: There is no love lost between the two owners of Brentford and Brighton and Matthew Benham and Tony Bloom have not really repaired their relationship. However, both have a similar way of operating their football clubs and both Brentford and Brighton will feel their methods are going to be good enough to maintain their spot in the Premier League.

Bragging rights are going to be important on Saturday and I do think both managers will be aware of the need for a positive result, perhaps even more so than usual.

In saying that, the players should be largely shielded from the issues their club's owners have with one another and all the squads are going to be focusing on is building on a positive start to the season. The two teams have both progressed in the League Cup and Brentford have earned 5 points, while Brighton have 6 points in the Premier League.

Brighton have perhaps been the stronger performers early in the season, although Graham Potter will want his team to show slightly more in the defensive areas of the pitch. The hosts might be unbeaten, but Brentford could have easily had fewer points on the board and I do think they have not been as creative in the final third as Thomas Frank may be asking.

That could leave them vulnerable in this home game, although I do think the Brentford Community Stadium will be a difficult ground for teams to visit. The home fans will give Brentford a boost, but I think Brighton's play under Graham Potter has been very encouraging and they are looking like being a creative threat much like they were last season too.

The key for Graham Potter is that the early fixtures have suggested Brighton may not be as wasteful in front of goal and they were comfortable home winners over newly promoted Watford last month. Brentford will be a tougher team to break down, especially being at home and with the early form showing they are well organised and tough to open up.

That makes this a close match and I am not surprised the layers are having a hard time separating the teams. However, I do think Brighton's early performances in the final third are encouraging enough to believe they deserve the edge and they can be backed on the Asian Handicap to secure the three points.


Leicester City v Manchester City Pick: There is some real uncertainty coming out of the international break and even more so than usual for Manchester City who have seen the Brazilian FA enforce FIFA regulations that will rule Ederson and Gabriel Jesus out for this fixture.

The Premier League are trying to work things out and so the status of these two players will be determined later this week.

If Ederson is ruled out, Manchester City could be down to third choice Scott Carson to play between the sticks and that may leave them a little vulnerable. The last time Carson played, Manchester City conceded three times to Newcastle United, but breaking down the Champions won't be easy.

Manchester City have been in control of their last two Premier League matches and this Leicester City team have opened the season with some mixed performances. They were terrible in the heavy loss to West Ham United, while Leicester City were fortunate to beat Wolves in their sole home game played this season.

Brendan Rodgers may have some defensive reinforcements back in time for this one, but he will also want his Leicester City team to show a little more in the final third. Finding that balance against Manchester City is going to be very difficult, especially if Leicester City are continuing to struggle at the back.

I do expect Pep Guardiola's men to dominate the possession and they should have enough to win here even accounting for some of the players that are going to miss out. In the last two Premier League games, Manchester City have looked very strong at the back and they have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at the King Power Stadium.

Games between these clubs have tended to be low-scoring in recent years and 7 of the last 10 have ended with less than three goals shared out. That includes the game in the Community Shield, while the fixtures hosted by Leicester City have tended to be tight.

5 of the last 6 at the King Power Stadium have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and the feeling is that this will be another. Manchester City should end up as narrow winners on the day, but both teams may be looking to build any foundation for success on their defensive shape in this one.


Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: There has been a huge amount of excitement in the Manchester United fanbase ever since it was announced that Cristiano Ronaldo will be returning to the club and this two week international break will have felt like a lifetime for many.

The fixture is not being broadcasted in the United Kingdom, but for those fortunate to have tickets this is a much anticipated game.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men have produced 7 points so far this season and the signing of Ronaldo is one that could see Manchester United really build a title challenge. Last season Manchester United only won 9 of 19 home Premier League games, but Cristiano Ronaldo's presence could see them put a few more victories on the board.

Manchester United have played well in the first month, but there is room for improvement and this is a fixture that looks a good one on paper. First off Manchester United scored seven goals against Newcastle United in the Premier League last season, while The Magpies have had a poor start to the new campaign and look vulnerable.

Steve Bruce will soon be feeling the pressure again and his team have conceded at least two goals in each of their Premier League games played. Newcastle United have been comfortably beaten by both Aston Villa and West Ham United and the chances they have allowed teams to create against them is a massive worry.

Callum Wilson may be missing too, which only makes life that much more difficult for Newcastle United, and I do think they are going to struggle to contain the hosts. There should be a really hot crowd at Old Trafford to welcome back Cristiano Ronaldo and that should give the Manchester United players a boost much like it did in the 5-1 win over Leeds United.

An early goal would create a real problem for Newcastle United and Manchester United are capable of putting them to the sword. They have won 4 in a row at Old Trafford against Newcastle United and Manchester United have scored at least three goals in each of those home victories.

It feels like a match that Manchester United should control and I would expect the home team to score the goals that sees them win by a couple of goals at the very least.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: Both of these teams went into the September international break off the back of a 2-2 draw, but Southampton would have been more pleased with their result compared with West Ham United.

A lot of key players have left Southampton this summer, but they have made a decent start to the season and they will feel they can hurt a West Ham United team who have looked a little vulnerable at the back. However, the bigger problem for Southampton is finding the balance to contain the strong attacking play David Moyes' men have put together.

I think that gives West Ham United the edge in the match and I do think they are going to be able to create chances. In the first two Premier League games, Southampton looked a little ragged at the back as the team gets used to being without Ryan Bertrand and Jannik Vestegaard, and I do believe that gives this West Ham United team spaces to exploit.

The Hammers have won 3 of their last 4 away Premier League games and this is a team that is playing with confidence as they sit in 2nd place in the table. The goals they are scoring makes West Ham United a very dangerous team at the moment and I do think they are going to take the game to their hosts.

Southampton may feel they can play a part in the game too, especially if they are as positive as they were at St James' Park two weeks ago. However, they have been a little inconsistent in the final third before that fixture against Newcastle United and I do think that says more about the latter than it does about Southampton.

West Ham United have a decent record at St Mary's in recent seasons and they can win for the third time in four visits. David Moyes will be hoping the September international break has not broken their momentum, and, if it hasn't, West Ham United should have enough threat in the final third to lead to the three points.


Watford v Wolves Pick: The underlying numbers have been very impressive from Wolves in the first three Premier League games played this season, but those are not enough to appease the fans. While they have played well enough to perhaps win all of their League games, Wolves have been impotent in the final third and that has led to 1-0 defeats to Leicester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United.

Poor finishing has been a real problem for Bruno Lage's men, but they have been creating some solid opportunities in all of the fixtures played. Defensively Wolves have looked pretty good for the most part and only a mistake from their goalkeeper cost them a positive result against Manchester United two weeks ago.

If they can continue producing these levels of performance, I do think Wolves are going to turn things around and start picking up some big results. However, they could be without Raul Jimenez this weekend to add to the attacking issues and Wolves are also visiting a ground on which Watford have enjoyed plenty of successes.

Back to back away Premier League defeats will have hurt, but Watford know it is the form at Vicarage Road which will determine whether they can avoid the drop or not. They have already won twice at home this season and that means they have won 11 in a row here in all competitions, while Watford have been reliant on strong defensive performances in those games.

They looked pretty well organised in the narrow defeat at Tottenham Hotspur two weeks ago too and I do think Watford are capable of producing a positive result as an underdog. I can't ignore the fact that Wolves are playing much better than their results suggest and they have dangerous players in their squad, but Watford haven't played badly and are clearly very comfortable in home surroundings.

Two seasons ago Watford did enough to beat Wolves at home and I think they are worth backing as the underdog with a slight start on the Asian Handicap. The first goal could be massively important in this one, but Watford have scored first in their last 17 home games in all competitions and the home underdog can produce a positive result on the day.


Chelsea v Aston Villa Pick: The first international break of the 2021/22 season has caused some havoc for domestic clubs around Europe and particularly for those in the Premier League who have chosen to prevent players representing their South American nations.

It means Chelsea and Aston Villa are going to be missing some key players for this Premier League fixture, while injuries across the last two weeks could also have an impact on the game.

Romelu Lukaku would be a big miss for Chelsea, but Aston Villa are missing their first choice goalkeeper and have injuries in the squad that leaves them vulnerable. Ezra Konsa may also be missing and that leaves the heart of the Aston Villa team looking short of the quality they may need to take on a Chelsea team that have opened the season with positive performances and results.

The home advantage should be more important for teams this season compared with last and Chelsea have already beaten Crystal Palace here. Aston Villa are still finding their feet without Jack Grealish and they have looked a little shaky at both ends of the field and being without Emiliano Martinez is just another blow for Dean Smith to absorb.

Danny Ings has shown he can provide goals for Aston Villa and Ollie Watkins should be available, but Chelsea are well organised defensively. They have the attacking players that can make up for any Lukaku absence and the feeling is that Chelsea will have too much for their short-handed visitors in the late Saturday kick off.

Thomas Tuchel's tactics can be a little geared towards making sure Chelsea are hard to beat, but since he took over at Stamford Bridge they have won 5 of 11 Premier League games by two or more goal margins. Defensively Chelsea should be able to contain much of what Aston Villa bring to the table and I think they have the players that can score the goals to ensure a relatively comfortable win on the day.


Leeds United v Liverpool Pick: The late Sunday afternoon offering from the Premier League will see a full Elland Road having the opportunity to host one of the traditional big English clubs. After a season watching the team at home, the fans will be keen to provide a big atmosphere for the Leeds United players when they face Liverpool.

Marcelo Bielsa's men are unbeaten in 8 at Elland Road in all competitions and they have given some of the top teams something to think about in the second half of last season. Leeds United have not had the best of starts to this campaign, but they are a team that will put pressure on their opponent and they will be looking to create chances.

They will likely cause some problems for Liverpool, but Leeds United have not made the best of starts to this season from a defensive point of view. It is a worry for them when you think of the kind of chances that Liverpool have been creating and I do believe that will give the visitors the edge in this match.

When Leeds United hosted Everton, it was the team from Liverpool that created the best opportunities and I imagine The Reds will do something similar.

Even with Roberto Firmino expected to miss out, Liverpool should have the attacking threats to give Leeds United a number of problems to work out. I expect Leeds United will have some joy if Alisson is expected to sit out for Liverpool, but they are going to be without Raphinha and that does take away a real part of the threat that the home team would usually offer.

It would not be a massive surprise if both teams hit the back of the net, but the feeling is that Liverpool's attacking output early this season will give them the edge. The game here finished 1-1 last season, but Liverpool will feel they would have won that game if they showed more of a clinical edge.

That was also missing in the 1-1 draw with Chelsea two weeks ago, but Liverpool have beaten both Norwich City and Burnley pretty comfortably. Liverpool should have too much for Leeds United in this live game and they can win a game that should feature at least two goals.


Everton v Burnley Pick: The final Premier League game of the weekend could be a relatively decent watch if the early season form of Everton and Burnley is anything to go by.

Everton are the ones with the points on the board, but Burnley have arguably deserved more than a single point from a home defeat to Brighton and a home draw with Leeds United. They conceded late in the draw with Leeds United two weeks ago, while Burnley have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

The hosts have made a good start under Rafael Benitez and 7 points from a possible 9 is very encouraging. The underlying numbers don't lie too much either and Everton have fully deserved their points and led twice at Leeds United before having to settle for a 2-2 draw away from home.

Rafael Benitez has helped his team find a pretty good balance and Everton are going to have Dominic Calvert-Lewin leading the line. The toe injury has slowed down the striker a little bit, but he leads the line effectively for Everton and this is a team creating chances.

I expect they can keep that going here with Burnley yet to really show their defensive organisation that people associate with a Sean Dyche team. As well as they have played at times, Burnley have looked vulnerable at the back and I do think a full Goodison Park crowd under the lights can inspire Everton to a victory.

Goals might not be too hard to find if these teams can pick up from where they left off a couple of weeks ago and I think Everton will get the better of a relatively high-scoring game. They were beaten by Burnley here last season, but the start to this campaign suggests Everton will be stronger and I think they show that by beating Burnley for the sixth time in eight home games against them.

MY PICKS: Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap
Brighton 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester United - 1.75 Asian Handicap
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap
Watford + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Liverpool to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Everton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 4
The decision was made to use my Wild Card as soon as it became clear that Cristiano Ronaldo was signing for Manchester United.

Call it the heart ruling the head, but CR7 has a number of good looking fixtures to be played between now and the next international break and I think he is still a player capable of producing big returns at this level.

This is not an uncommon time for me to use my Wild Card as the summer transfer window has come to a conclusion, but in the last couple of seasons I have tended to hold onto the card.

However, this time around I had a couple of players I wanted to move on and bringing in Cristiano Ronaldo would have taken a couple more moves on top of that.

There are teams that have started fairly well that I had not picked in my original FPL squad and I think this is a good time to bring some of those players in, while I should have enough time to make sure I don't miss out on some of the good runs coming up for the likes of Manchester City and Chelsea.

Those clubs have premium assets, but the likes of Wolves, Arsenal, Leeds United and Everton have decent fixtures coming up too.

Injuries and Covid concerns are never that far away, but like any Wild Card team, I am going to be playing with my selections for as long as possible.

At around 11am on Saturday morning I will reveal my GW4 team on Twitter

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