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Friday 17 September 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 5 Picks 2021 (September 17-19)

The hype had been building over two weeks and Old Trafford was rocking heading to the pubs and bars around town before heading into the Stadium.

Most players might not have been able to deal with everything that surrounded the move back 'home', but Cristiano Ronaldo is not most players.

Two goals, a 4-1 Manchester United win and the team are top of the table after four games have been played in the Premier League.

Excitement was going to be hard to contain, but the club were brought back down to earth with the latest setback in the Champions League as Manchester United faltered in their 2-1 defeat at Young Boys. 7 losses in 11 Champions League games is a massive disappointment for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Manchester United and the pressure is on to make sure they are not dumped out of a weak looking Group.

For now the attention will turn back to the Premier League with the fixtures being played from Friday through to Sunday this weekend. I will have a few thoughts about GW5 of the FPL game below after putting down my thoughts for the fixtures to be played.


Newcastle United v Leeds United PickThe opening Premier League match of the weekend will be played on Friday night and both Newcastle United and Leeds United will be desperately searching for the first win of the season.

Both had to face 'Big Six' clubs last weekend and they were both beaten by three goal margins.

Newcastle United were in a difficult situation as they travelled to Old Trafford to face Cristiano Ronaldo in his 'homecoming' and the Portuguese superstar scored twice as Steve Bruce's men were brushed aside. A tetchy press conference after the match showed the growing tension between Steve Bruce and the fans and local media and it could be a toxic atmosphere to play in for the home team if the game is not going the way the fans will be expecting.

A long injury list is not helping the cause and Steve Bruce could be without key players in attacking areas. Callum Wilson's absence will be a huge hurdle to overcome, even though Newcastle United are facing a Leeds United team who have not found the balance Marcelo Bielsa would have been hoping for this season.

Defensively Leeds United have been struggling massively, but they are not creating the same kind of chances as they were last season. The struggle in the final third may be down to the fact that Leeds United have faced three of the current top four and they were better when facing Burnley, the weakest team they have faced so far this season.

It will be encouraging for a Leeds United team who are potentially missing two or three important defenders for this game. They will have seen the amount of chances that Newcastle United have been allowing opponents to create against them and Leeds United did the Premier League double over this club last season.

That will help with the mental side of things and I do think Leeds United are the better of the two teams and especially in their current state. The injuries in the home squad leaves them vulnerable and I do think Leeds United can take advantage with their attacking threat at Turf Moor most likely to be replicated than efforts at Manchester United or against Liverpool.

Things are never easy at St James' Park, but Leeds United will feel they have the edge even through the defensive problems they are dealing with. No Callum Wilson will help overcome those, while Marcelo Bielsa's team should be able to create enough chances to secure the full three points for the first time this season.


Wolves v Brentford PickThere will be plenty for these two clubs to look at from the early season fixtures and they will largely be happy with what the players have produced.

Bruno Lage's Wolves were finally rewarded for a very positive start to the season with a first win of the campaign. They have deserved so much more than they have gotten from the early fixtures, but Lage will be still be demanding his players work on their finishing which has been letting them down.

Last Saturday they finally took a couple of chances in the 0-2 win at Watford, while Wolves continue to play well defensively. They are not giving up a lot of chances and Wolves fans will head to Molineux expecting to see a first win of the season.

Brentford are a team that has to be respected, but Thomas Frank has to be a little concerned with the attacking side of their game. The side have scored a single goal in 3 Premier League games and Brentford are not exactly creating a lot of chances in their recent games either.

Defensively they can be stubborn and hard to break down and only an injury time goal prevented Brentford from making it 4 unbeaten in the Premier League. While there are questions about them in the final third, Brentford have produced encouraging displays defensively, although the fixture list looks much more difficult in the coming weeks than in the opening month.

It will be a challenge for Thomas Frank to pick his players up after the setback of last Saturday and Brentford are going to have to weather a storm that Wolves have brought against every opponent they have faced this season. Containing the home team will not be easy considering how effective they have been at creating chances and much is going to depend on how efficient Wolves are in front of goal.

Wolves are not easy to trust when you think of some of the glaring misses and they needed an own goal to get going at Vicarage Road. Brentford will not give anything away easily, but I think Wolves have the momentum of the win at Watford behind them and I do think they can back that victory up with another this weekend.

Goals may be hard to come by, but the feeling is that Wolves are going to create the better chances and it feels like the win last weekend will be important to them going forward.


Burnley v Arsenal PickThe defeat at Brentford was a pretty dreadful result for Arsenal, but the others to Chelsea and Manchester City may be more forgivable.

The manner of those losses would have hurt the fans, but Mikel Arteta will know his rebuilding process is still in transition and Arsenal are short of those top teams. Last weekend they looked much better as injuries have cleared up and they fully deserved the win over Norwich City.

1-0 could easily have been a much wider victory and Arsenal will head to Turf Moor with some confidence after the first three points of the season were secured. They are facing a Burnley team who capitulated at Everton on Monday Night Football having taken the lead and the defensive problems are surprising early in the season.

While I do think the manager will rectify those, Burnley may be vulnerable to an Arsenal team that can create chances and who have attacking players capable of finishing off their moves. Mikel Arteta will be demanding a little more composure in the final third, but he has to feel Arsenal can hurt a Burnley team that has conceded in every Premier League game this season and two or more goals in 3 of their 4 League games.

Add in the fact that Burnley have not won any of their last 12 at Turf Moor in the Premier League and have had one clean sheet in 14 home League games and Arsenal have to be full of belief.

However, Burnley have been pretty good going forward and they have a team that can be dangerous from set pieces. Better finishing may have seen them clear of Everton on Monday and also in both home games against Brighton and Leeds United this season, but in all of those fixtures Burnley have blown a lead.

Burnley are creating chances though, which will be encouraging for Sean Dyche and his team, and they have scored in 8 of their last 12 Premier League games at Turf Moor despite failing to win any of those. They will appreciate that Arsenal can be organised under Mikel Arteta, but also vulnerable from set pieces and that is where Burnley may find some joy.

The 1-1 scoreline can't be ruled out, but the early form of both of these teams suggest there will be at least one more goal produced with the attacking play Burnley and Arsenal have produced.

Only 1 of the last 10 between these clubs at Turf Moor have produced at least three goals shared out, but I am going against that trend this weekend. Both Burnley and Arsenal have shown they can be effective going forward with the chances created, while both have also conceded plenty of big opportunities.

An early goal could spark the game and there were plenty of opportunities for both clubs when they met in a 1-1 draw here last season. On another day, better composure would have led to at least one more goal when they last met and I think the two teams will combine for at least three goals in this one as they should both believe the three points are very much attainable against this opponent.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace PickThe strong end to last season earned Liverpool their spot in the Champions League and they have opened up with a 3-2 win over AC Milan.

The victory is a big one for Liverpool who have made a positive start to the Premier League campaign too. It looks like a potential title race that could involve up to four or five teams and that means Liverpool cannot afford to drop points at Anfield against an opponent they should be beating.

Crystal Palace would fit that bill, but Patrick Vieira has won his first game as manager of the club and would have enjoyed the 3-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur. The game changed on a sending off for the visitors, but Crystal Palace took full advantage and they played really well in a 2-2 draw at West Ham United before the September international break too.

Those results will have to be respected, but Crystal Palace have lost their last 4 visits to Anfield and can only really hope that Liverpool are a little fatigued from their Champions League exploits during the week. It can have an impact on teams, but Liverpool have been able to rest some key players in the win over Milan and they have looked good at both ends of the field for much of this season.

Liverpool have won 8 in a row against Crystal Palace and they have kept clean sheets in the last 3 against them. The Crystal Palace defeat at Chelsea on the opening weekend suggests they are still a team in transition under a new manager and I do think Liverpool will control the tempo of this fixture.

Jurgen Klopp's team have kept clean sheets in 3 of their 4 Premier League games played this season and I do think they will earn another one here. Crystal Palace likely will pose a threat on the break and from set pieces, but the main focus may be trying to contain their hosts and I feel it will lead to a Liverpool victory in which they also keep a clean sheet.


Manchester City v Southampton PickThe overwhelming feeling for many is that Manchester City would struggle without buying a new striker, but Pep Guardiola's team are making a mockery of those predictions.

They may have lost 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur, but Manchester City have won all 4 games played since then and they have been particularly intimidating at their own Stadium.

Add in the 5-0 win over Everton on the final day of last season and Manchester City have scored 21 goals in 4 home wins in a row. The last 3 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium have all ended 5-0 in favour of Manchester City and during the week they secured a 6-3 victory over Leipzig in the Champions League.

That has to be a concern for winless Southampton, although they have played well in their last couple of Premier League games. However, they are a team that have largely struggled defensively over the last couple of seasons and Manchester City scored five goals in a home win over Southampton back in March too.

Ralph Hasenhuttl wants his Southampton team to play with a certain swagger, but it has left them open at the back and they have conceded at least twice in 7 away Premier League games in succession. Everton saw Southampton off comfortably on the opening weekend, and 5 of their last 12 away Premier League games have ended in defeats by three or more goals.

Against this Manchester City team in the form they are producing it feels like a big task for Southampton to be competitive. They will likely pose problems for the home team if Aymeric Laporte and John Stones are both absent, but Manchester City should dominate the attacking numbers again and I think they can be backed to produce a big win on the day.

In 2 of the last 3 Premier League games at the Etihad Stadium between these teams, Manchester City have scored at least five goals and on current form you would not be feeling that comfortable backing against them doing the same this weekend.


Norwich City v Watford PickSome of the Norwich City performances have to be encouraging for Daniel Farke and the fans, but there is still this sense of naivety about the team at this level. That was especially the case in the 5-0 loss at Manchester City, but Norwich City have played much better in both home Premier League games without reward.

The 0-3 loss to Liverpool and 1-2 defeat to Leicester City are games where any points would have been seen as a bonus, but Norwich City played well enough in both. They could have secured something from each of those fixtures, but defensively there is a massive vulnerability about them.

The manager will point to the very difficult opening four games Norwich City have had to play, but there will be no excuses if they haven't found a way to pick up significant points before the next international break. First up is this massive home game against Watford and Norwich City will be looking for revenge over their relegation rivals as well as hoping to snap a 14 game losing run in the top flight.

Norwich City have been creating chances and will feel they can hurt a Watford team who have lost 3 in a row since upsetting Aston Villa at Vicarage Road on the opening weekend. They have lost both away games and that means Watford have been beaten in their last 8 away Premier League games, but they also struggled for consistency on their travels in the Championship last season.

Watford have struggled in the final third in recent away games and they have lost 4 of their last 5 on their travels going back to last season. They have failed to score in any of those 4 defeats and Watford have created little in their defeats at Brighton and Tottenham Hotspur over the last month.

However, Xisco Munoz will know both of those teams are likely to finish much higher up the League table than Norwich City when all is said and done next May.

The Hornets hold the mental edge having completed the League double over Norwich City in each of the last two seasons. Last season they earned 1-0 wins over Norwich City at home and away and I do think the first goal is going to be massive in this one.

Watford have won 6 of their last 9 visits to Carrow Road, but I do think Norwich City have shown enough this season to try and snap their poor record against this opponent. A defeat is likely going to knock all confidence out of the Norwich City team and this feels like a massive game for both clubs, but I do think the two home performances are encouraging for The Canaries.

You can't underestimate Watford simply because of how they have matched up against Norwich City in recent seasons, but they are a team who have struggled to find their best on their travels. The lack of goals has to be a concern, but Watford can be tough to break down when they are at their best and that is where they will try and frustrate Norwich City here.

However, Norwich City have been creating plenty of chances in their two home games against top teams and they can produce a first win of the season here. The first goal is going to be massive and Norwich City are likely going to come out with an intense attitude that may see them break down a Watford team who are still getting to grips at this level too.


Aston Villa v Everton PickLast season both Aston Villa and Everton will have some regrets that they were not able to find the consistency down the stretch that may have seen them playing in Europe this season.

It might not be a bad thing for the clubs overall as they look to develop to challenge the big clubs in the Premier League, but the fans are desperate to see that development this season.

Aston Villa have not been as consistent as they would have liked, but Dean Smith may feel it is partly down to the injuries that his squad have been dealing with. This weekend they look to have their key players all available for the first time at the same time, while Aston Villa produced a big performance at Stamford Bridge last Saturday.

Replicating that level on a regular basis is not going to be easy, but Dean Smith will believe his team are capable more often than not. Ollie Watkins and Danny Ings give Aston Villa a real goal threat, while the returning Emiliano Martinez and Emiliano Buendia will be a boost for the squad.

Aston Villa have key players back, but Everton are going to have to make do without Dominic Calvert-Lewin again this weekend. Last Monday they beat Burnley 3-1 without their leading striker, but Everton struggled at times to play without Dominic Calvert-Lewin and I do think Aston Villa have the defenders that will feel they can contain the threat.

Rafael Benitez does have Everton playing with confidence and this is a team that have been creating chances, while largely looking pretty secure defensively. They have won at Brighton and deserved to win at Leeds United so a trip to Villa Park will not be intimidating, but both of those came with Calvert-Lewin leading the line and his absence will hurt their efforts.

They are also facing an Aston Villa team who have been strong at home, while getting the better of Everton last season. I think Rafael Benitez will improve Everton this time around, but Aston Villa have the threats in the final third to get the better of them in this live game and I think the home team are worthy of backing on the Asian Handicap which returns the stake in the event of a draw.


Brighton v Leicester City PickPlaying in the Europa League on Thursday and having Premier League commitments on the weekend is a big challenge for the clubs who have to do that.

Leicester City should have plenty of experience having negotiated the Group Stage of the Europa League last season, but the early season form is perhaps more of a concern. They are still picking up points, but Leicester City have just struggled for the balance at both ends of the field and now they have to face a rested and confident Brighton team.

Graham Potter has never lost faith in his system and his style of play and Brighton are being rewarded early in this season. They were underachievers last season when you compare the results to the overall performances, but over the last month Brighton have been rewarded for their efforts.

The late goal at Brentford has already seen Brighton earn close to a quarter of the points they would have been targeting before the season began. Defensively there has been plenty to be excited about and they will feel that will give them the foundation to be successful, while Brighton have shown enough in the final third to believe they can hurt this Leicester City team.

Playing The Foxes days after the Europa League began is a bonus, but Leicester City have a good record here and I am anticipating a battle between two good football teams. Both managers will want to see their team get on the front foot, but it may be a day when one of the sides are unable to break down the other.

Brighton have not been as strong going forward as they were for much of last season, but defensively they have looked good. On the other side, Leicester City have struggled for consistent attacking threat and last season 2 of the 3 games between these teams ended with one failing to find the back of the net.

The last fixture here ended 1-2 to Leicester City, but the previous 4 between these clubs had seen one of the teams fail to score.

Since Brighton returned to the top flight, half of their 4 home games against Leicester City have ended with at least one of the teams failing to score. Considering the challenges both have had in the final third so far this season, I do think we could see at least one clean sheet produced on the day.


West Ham United v Manchester United PickBoth of these teams had contrasting fortunes away from home in European competition this week, but West Ham United and Manchester United have both made unbeaten starts to the Premier League campaign.

It is Manchester United who lead the way with 10 points on the board, but West Ham United have picked up 8 points of their own and they will be plenty confident of upsetting their visitors.

The Hammers won 0-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on Thursday and this is a team who have been creating chances and scoring plenty of goals all season. They were held to a goalless draw at Southampton last Saturday though and West Ham United will be without talisman Michail Antonio this week which should give Manchester United the edge.

Backing Manchester United at odds on is not that appealing though even if they have won 5 of their last 7 away Premier League games. The 2-1 defeat at Young Boys in the Champions League will have dented some of the confidence, but the likes of Raphael Varane and Mason Greenwood did not start that game.

Aaron Wan-Bissaka made a big mistake in the first half and the relatively early sending off was costly for Manchester United who had been leading 0-1 at that point. Poor decisions by the manager didn't help, but I can't ignore the fact that Manchester United would have likely avoided a defeat if not for that sending off.

They were fortunate to win at Wolves at the end of August with the home team creating the best chances on the day, but West Ham United might not pose the same threat without Michail Antonio. That might contribute to a low-scoring game when you think that Manchester United have scored more than one goal in only 5 of their last 14 away Premier League games and yet they are now unbeaten in 28 on their travels in the top flight.

4 of the last 5 between West Ham United and Manchester United have ended with fewer than three goals shared out, while 3 of the 5 fixtures these teams have competed in at the London Stadium have done the same.

The inexperience of the West Ham United squad having played in the Europa League on Thursday in Croatia and now having an early kick off on Sunday might also go against David Moyes' men. They are likely going to look to make life difficult for Manchester United, but the feeling is that the visitors will secure a narrow away win as they erase the memory of the poor defeat in the Champions League.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea PickBoth teams will be happy with the points on the board after the first four Premier League games of the season, but there is no doubt that Chelsea have been much more convincing than Tottenham Hotspur.

The latter had a tough Europa League game at Rennes on Thursday too and I do think Tottenham Hotspur and Nuno Espirito Santo have learned how tough this season could be over the last week. The 3-0 hammering at Crystal Palace would have really hurt and Tottenham Hotspur are struggling for the balance between attack and defence.

That is not the case for Chelsea who have looked strong at the back and comfortable playing against the other top teams in England. They have drawn at Liverpool and Chelsea have already made the relatively short trip to North East London to win this season.

Chelsea will potentially be facing a short-handed Tottenham Hotspur in this one too which gives them a further edge in this Premier League fixture, while winning back to back visits to Spurs will only encourage the squad further.

Spurs have beaten Manchester City here in the Premier League, but they were fortunate that day and I think they will need considerable luck to win this one. Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make his team hard to beat, but Chelsea have the quality to break them down and won here under Thomas Tuchel last season.

With Romelu Lukaku in the form he is in, I think Chelsea can do enough to win this final game of the Premier League weekend behind their own solid foundation at the back.

MY PICKS: Leeds United - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Wolves
Burnley-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool Win to Nil
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap
Norwich City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa 0 Asian Handicap
Brighton-Leicester City Both Teams to Score- NO
West Ham United-Manchester United Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea


Fantasy Football GameWeek 5
I decided to use my Wild Card in GW4 with some of the early decisions and real life transfers looking like they were leaving my team a little short.

Let's also face facts- there was almost no way I would be putting together a Fantasy team without Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line and that meant having to make a few changes.

Like many others, Chelsea players are going to be high on the radar with a turn in their fixture list in the coming weeks, but I felt I would have enough to use my transfers through to GameWeek 7 which would be enough to bring in the players I want.

Romelu Lukaku has to be the main target and I have a couple of different paths towards bringing him into my squad, although my Wild Card in GW4 was used knowing I would get through GW5 without using another transfer.

The suspension of Michail Antonio has hurt, but not too badly and I am comfortable with the eleven I will be starting in this game and knowing my back up players are capable of coming up and filling up any gaps.


I know some out there will want to move Antonio on, even though he has some good looking games to come and is only out for this GameWeek- I've had him from GW1 so it makes no sense for me to remove him and bring him back, but if I was looking for a replacement, these are the players I would potentially target.

Richarlison- leading the line for Everton in the absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and will also likely be on Penalties. The team have some decent games to come, especially Norwich City at home next week.

Raul Jimenez- Wolves are creating chances for fun and I do think it is a matter of time before the Mexican striker gets on a run.

Patrick Bamford- I am not as high on Bamford as some, mainly because Leeds United have not been completely at the races so far this season. Also has been talk about a potential knock so his minutes may be limited, although the fixtures are a positive and if he is going to get scoring, it may begin this week.

Personally I think keeping Michail Antonio makes the most sense and having another week of data to get behind, but I also would not be surprised if those three strikers all have an impact in GameWeek 5.


With the players I have in the squad, I feel playing five at the back may be the best approach, while I have decided to have Said Benrahma as my first sub and Moussa Sissoko as my second. My feeling is that my starting eleven will all play so the bench may not be a big factor, and my risks this week have to be the Norwich City starters with their fixture list looking much better than their first four games.

This is a key time for Norwich City in real life rather than Fantasy and the players have to start producing points if they are going to have a realistic go at avoiding the drop.

Hopefully Brandon Williams and Teemu Puuki can produce the points for my team.

I am quite content with the rest of my eleven and I will then have another week to think about any transfers I would like to make with the focus beginning to turn to GW7 and what I may like to do.

The Captain choice came down to Mohamed Salah at home against Crystal Palace or leaving it with Cristiano Ronaldo who will be leading the line for Manchester United at the London Stadium. I do think CR7 can make a difference for United at West Ham United, but Mo Salah looks the more appealing choice this week with a home game and with an 'easier' fixture on paper.

Crystal Palace have conceded five times in their two away Premier League games, while West Ham United have conceded three times in their two home games. Add in Crystal Palace's struggles against Liverpool in recent seasons and with a more expressive system being used and I do think they may struggle at Anfield.

There is always a concern about rotation, but Mo Salah did not have the full 90 minutes against AC Milan on Wednesday and I would be surprised if he is rested considering he will be having a week off between fixtures after this one. Cristiano Ronaldo is more than capable of matching his output this week, but Salah is a midfielder in the game and that extra point for a goal is worth the Captain armband with the fixtures to come.

These two players do look the stand out options in GW5- I will post my team on Twitter on Friday afternoon just after the deadline is locked in around 6:30pm.

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