A wet day in New York City did mean there were a couple of delays, but the rest of the tournament is looking much brighter.
The tournament has remained on track and the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed on Day 4 at Flushing Meadows. Players will begin to feel much happier in the conditions and I think the matches are going to be pick up their intensity as we get into a number of close contests.
There have already been some upsets at the event and the Tennis Picks have been inconsistent over the first three days, but I am hoping to put some momentum behind the selections beginning on Thursday.
Kei Nishikori-Mackenzie McDonald over 37.5 games: The winner of this match is likely going to be facing Novak Djokovic in the Third Round, but neither Kei Nishikori nor Mackenzie McDonald should be looking beyond the opponent they are facing on Day 4 at the US Open. A place in the Third Round will bring significant World Ranking points to the winner of this match and that has to be the motivation for a couple of players who are both confident when playing on the hard courts.
The best of five set format does mean there is considerable time spent on the court for the men playing at the US Open. Dropping the third set will have been disappointing for Kei Nishikori, but both of these players made relatively serene passage through to the Second Round and that should mean we have another solid looking match to look forward to at Flushing Meadows.
They met recently at the tournament in Washington and it was Mackenzie McDonald who managed to edge out Kei Nishikori in three competitive sets and the feeling is that this is going to be a tight match too. Unsurprisingly, Kei Nishikori and Mackenzie McDonald were both pretty dominant on the return in that match in Washington and even the faster conditions that some players have reported in New York City is unlikely to change the style of match we are going to see.
I am also not that surprised that the layers are finding it hard to separate these players considering the numbers they have produced in 2021 on this surface. Kei Nishikori had to withdraw from the tournament in Cincinnati too which meant there were some fitness doubts ahead of the US Open, while Mackenzie McDonald has enjoyed a productive summer on the hard courts with the inches falling in his favour.
It would not be a major surprise if we need four and potentially five sets to separate these players and I do think they can combine to cover the total games mark. When they met in the Washington Semi Final, the two players combined for 31 games in the three sets played and I do think we are going to see a competitive match with swings back and forth between them.
With vulnerable serves there is a chance that we are going to see some one-sided sets which may mean anything less than five sets will fail to see the match get close to the total games line set. However, I think the match in Washington showed how competitive this Second Round match can be and the feeling is that four sets may be enough to surpass the line.
Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 sets v Jordan Thompson: A poor second set meant Aslan Karatsev was not able to cover the handicap mark in his First Round win, but he was dominant in the final two sets of his win over Jaume Munar. That was a match against someone who has not performed at his best on the hard courts, but Aslan Karatsev will have to pick up his level if he is going to even get close to matching the run he had at the Australian Open earlier in 2021.
It has been a difficult couple of months for Aslan Karatsev who has been a little more inconsistent in his level than he was earlier this year when winning a title in Dubai. Three straight losses ahead of the US Open would have knocked the confidence of most players, and it may have contributed to the early part of the First Round match against Munar, but the play over the last two sets is encouraging for Aslan Karatsev.
He now has to face Jordan Thompson who is much happier on the hard courts than the first opponent Aslan Karatsev has played in New York City. The Australian needed five tough sets to move through to the Second Round and Jordan Thompson has had a few more wins on the hard courts over the last few weeks than Aslan Karatsev, albeit at a lower level than the one his opponent has been operating at.
Jordan Thompson was a little fortunate to come through his First Round match having faced more break points than he created and he did need a final set Tie-Breaker to earn passage into the next Round. He did reach the Fourth Round at the US Open last year though and that has to be factored into this match with the conditions giving Thompson a chance of the upset.
However, he has been a mixed bag of inconsistency on the hard courts in 2021 and I do think someone like Aslan Karatsev has enough in his tennis to get the better of Jordan Thompson.
It won't be easy and the Russian is going to have to play the big points a little better than he did in the early stages against Jaume Munar, but I expect Aslan Karatsev to be feeling much better about his tennis after that win. Serving has to improve, but I think there is scope for that level to move up a gear and I will look for Aslan Karatsev to move through to the Third Round in a three or four set victory.
Alexander Zverev - 9.5 games v Albert Ramos: Getting through the early Rounds of a Grand Slam with the minimum of fuss is the first objective for all of the players who really believe they are capable of winning such an event. It certainly feels especially important for those playing in the men's draw and the best of five set format which is not seen that often on the Tour like they once were.
Moving through the First Round in under two hours thanks to a straight sets win is the perfect start to the US Open for last year's Runner Up, Alexander Zverev, and he made a potentially dangerous opponent look very ordinary. This performance is just a follow on from the dominating wins Alexander Zverev put together in winning the Gold Medal in Tokyo and the Cincinnati Masters and almost all aspects of his tennis are in fine working order.
The Second Round match may actually look a little more straight-forward on paper compared with the First Round and Albert Ramos has made things more difficult for himself having needed five sets to win his opening match here. The win is a positive, but Albert Ramos spent well over three and a half hours on the court and it was an emotional win over Lucas Pouille having saved match points on his way through to the next Round.
It would be a big upset if Albert Ramos is able to get the better of Alexander Zverev and there has been little from his hard court performances over the last two years to suggest it will be the case. Last year at the US Open the Spaniard was crushed by Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he should earn a few more games in this one as Alexander Zverev perhaps takes a little time getting used to the lefty serve.
Even then, the lack of breaks put together on the hard courts makes it very difficult to think this will be a very close match and especially not with Alexander Zverev operating at a very high level.
The German has really got his eye in when it comes to the return of serve and I think that is going to put an immense amount of pressure on Albert Ramos. The Alexander Zverev serve can sometimes go off the boil, but he looks to be in a really strong position right now and I think he is going to cover a mammoth number on his way through to the Third Round.
Gael Monfils - 1.5 sets v Steve Johnson: A day after turning 35 years old, Gael Monfils will return to the US Open courts as he looks to build on a confident First Round win. There is no doubt that the veteran benefited from a kind opening match and he was barely pushed on the day, but Gael Monfils will be the first to admit that this is going to be a much sterner test in the Second Round.
The Frenchman needed four minutes more than an hour and a half to earn his place in the Second Round and it continues what has been a more positive summer after a number of difficult months on the Tour. The serve was in good working order, but Gael Monfils will also be very happy with the way he returned and he is going to need all of that when taking on another veteran of the Tour.
Steve Johnson took over three hours to win his First Round match, but the overall performance would have impressed the American. He did reach the Quarter Final in Los Cabos and Washington, but Steve Johnson has had a challenging few weeks on the hard courts and there has been a slight dip in his service numbers in 2021 which has led to tougher results.
The 31 year old has always been a player that has served well on the hard courts, but struggled when it comes to the return and that is largely why Steve Johnson failed to break into the top 20 of the World Rankings. In 2021 the return has slipped a little more and I do think that leaves Johnson vulnerable against Gael Monfils who has won all three previous Tour matches between the two.
The last of those was in 2019 on the grass, while Steve Johnson has taken a set in each of the three previous matches against Gael Monfils. All of those went the distance in the best of three set format, but Monfils has held a significant advantage when it comes to percentage of service games being held and I expect that to manifest over the course of this Second Round match too.
Gael Monfils has earned more break points in each of the three previous matches between these players and I do think the form over the last few weeks is enough to believe in the Frenchman here. I would not be massively surprised if Steve Johnson is able to win a set, but I do think Gael Monfils can still find the right plays at the big moments to secure safe passage to the Third Round without needing a final set decider.
Lloyd Harris - 4.5 games v Ernesto Escobedo: One of the First Round matches that caught the eye was the one between Lloyd Harris and Karen Khachanov and it is the big South African who has worked his way through in five sets. That should be a confidence boosting win for Lloyd Harris who is at his career best Number 46 in the World Rankings thanks to a strong year on the Tour.
The last few weeks have seen Lloyd Harris struggle to maintain some consistency, but losses to Reilly Opelka and Alexander Zverev in Toronto and Cincinnati respectively are against two in-form players. He probably deserved more from the loss to Opelka and that has to encourage Lloyd Harris.
His serve is a big weapon, but Harris is perhaps a little under-rated when it comes to the return of serve and he earned double the amount of break points than Karen Khachanov in the First Round win. Over the course of 2021, Lloyd Harris has broken in 21% of return games played on the hard courts and that has perhaps helped put him in a position as favourite in this Second Round match.
Overlooking Ernesto Escobedo would be a mistake as the American has put a couple of solid hard court tournaments in the books over the last few weeks. Granted, those matches have largely been against players Ranked outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings and Ernesto Escobedo was beaten comfortably by Cameron Norrie in Los Cabos, but a win over Pablo Cuevas in the manner it was earned in the First Round will make Escobedo feel pretty good.
Ernesto Escobedo has a 4-2 record in main Tour hard court matches in 2021, but his numbers have been largely disappointing. The return is solid, but Escobedo has struggled to look after his own serve with just 69% of service games being held before the win over Cuevas in the First Round.
The two matches against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 have led to two one-sided defeats for Ernesto Escobedo and he has won just 48% of service points played in those matches. It is a concern against someone like Lloyd Harris who is a capable enough returner to put the American under pressure, while Ernesto Escobedo has a losing record against top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in his career.
He should be fresh and ready to compete which may mean the opening set, set and a half is very competitive, but I think Lloyd Harris will underline his status as a top 100 player and begin to exert control from that point. It should be soon enough for Lloyd Harris to not only win, but also cover this handicap mark as he reaches the Third Round in New York City.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori-Mackenzie McDonald Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aslan Karatsev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lloyd Harris - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang @ 2.20 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 9-9, - 2.52 Units (36 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)
No comments:
Post a Comment