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Saturday 25 September 2021

Weekend Football and Fantasy Football GameWeek 6 Picks 2021 (September 25-27)

It was another decent, but unspectacular week for my Fantasy Premier League team.

At least my real life team are still picking up big wins in the Premier League and Manchester United have a big week ahead of them when they are due to play three games before the October international break.

All three will be played at Old Trafford, but the idiots in West London have drained the fuel garages and that means I will not be attending for the first time in the League this season. To say I am highly strung at the moment is an understatement, but hopefully it will have cleared up by the time the Champions League game with Villarreal is set to be played on Wednesday.

And almost certainly I will be back for the Premier League game with Everton next weekend.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: This looks to be the big game in the Premier League this weekend and it will be the opening live fixture of the scheduled matches to be played.

Both Chelsea and Manchester City are amongst the favourites to win the Premier League title this season and both have made relatively good starts to the season.

Chelsea have been producing better results, but it can be argued that Manchester City have largely had the stronger performances. That makes it more intriguing trying to pick a winner, although the mental edge is with Thomas Tuchel and his Chelsea team.

Since his arrival, Thomas Tuchel has beaten Pep Guardiola and Manchester City in all 3 meetings including in the FA Cup Semi Final to end the Quadruple hopes and in the Champions League Final. The games have been competitively played which should be the case on Saturday, although I do think the injury list at centre half is a worry for Manchester City.

The home team look stronger in the squad and they should be ready to compete in front of their own fans, although Chelsea are not creating a host of chances in matches they are playing. What they have been doing is being defensively responsible and I do think Thomas Tuchel will set Chelsea up to be hard to break down.

It has worked in the matches against Manchester City as Pep Guardiola has been guilty of overcomplicating his team selection and tactics in a couple of those defeats. They are still a team who can be very threatening going forward, but Chelsea have shown they can deal with all that comes their way and the feeling is that this will be another low-scoring game between these teams who will not want to give much away to the other.


Manchester United v Aston Villa Pick: Both of these teams were beaten in the League Cup Third Round during the week, but they will return to the more important Premier League schedule this weekend.

Manchester United and Aston Villa have some big ambitions in the League this season, although the former have made the much stronger start of the two teams. The fixture list has actually been pretty kind to both, but Aston Villa have had a couple of setbacks away from home which has left them in the bottom half of the table.

Those away defeats at Watford and Chelsea are a concern for Aston Villa considering the amount of goals Manchester United have scored in their last two Premier League games at Old Trafford. In the two League games with Cristiano Ronaldo leading the line, Manchester United have created some big chances and the Portuguese hitman has banged in four goals already since returning to the club.

His movement helps the entire Manchester United attack and I do think Cristiano Ronaldo can inspire the team to another three points.

Aston Villa cannot be underestimated considering how well they performed at Stamford Bridge in the Premier League earlier this month- the 3-0 defeat was incredibly harsh on them and Aston Villa do create chances.

However, they have not looked completely at ease defensively and that is where Manchester United should have the edge. Clean sheets have not been easy to come by for the home team, but they are making mistakes at times which have been punished and Manchester United have to pay plenty of attention to Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins.

The partnership will need time to really click together and Aston Villa have not really been creating a lot of good chances. They played well on the counter attack at Chelsea in the League and Cup and that will give them chances against Manchester United, but I expect plenty of the key players to be restored to the side and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer can make it three wins out of three at Old Trafford in the League before a big Champions League and Premier League fixture to come leading to the October international break.


Everton v Norwich City Pick: Daniel Farke has to be questioned about his Norwich City tactics which look to be leading the club back into the Championship with little hope of much of a fight to avoid that. He wants his team to play on the front foot, but Norwich City have been really poor defensively and making some massive mistakes which have proved costly.

They are not consistent enough going the other way to make amends for those defensive vulnerabilities and I do think Norwich City are going to struggle to even avoid finishing with the fewest Premier League points in history.

It is important for Norwich City to show more and it could be argued that they could not have picked a better time to visit Goodison Park.

Everton were beaten 3-0 at Aston Villa last weekend and were then dumped out of the League Cup at Queens Park Rangers, while injuries have piled up for Rafael Benitez ahead of the October international break. Key names should be able to return immediately after that, but for now Everton are short of numbers and the players are going to have to dig deep to make up for the absentees.

They did show they can do that in the 3-1 win over Burnley a couple of weeks ago and Everton do still have enough in the final third to believe they are going to have too much for Norwich City. Recent history at Goodison Park is not that encouraging, but Rafael Benitez has made Everton pretty organised already and they are capable of blowing past teams at home with the fans behind them.

Players will have to step up with both Dominic Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison expected to miss out, but Everton have the squad depth to do that. It is especially the case against this opponent in my opinion and I think Everton will win a game that features a few goals.


Leeds United v West Ham United Pick: Injuries have really hurt Leeds United early in this season and they have looked vulnerable when teams have tried to get on top of them.

It has led to a couple of heavy defeats to Manchester United and Liverpool, while Leeds United have yet to secure a clean sheet. This week they are missing more key players as Diego Llorente and Patrick Bamford are expected to be absent and that leaves Leeds United vulnerable.

They will never be easy to beat at Elland Road and especially not with the fans back in attendance, but West Ham United are more than capable of taking advantage of any uncertainty in the home dressing room. Michail Antonio is back and West Ham United are coming in off a big win at Manchester United in the League Cup which means they have won 5 of their last 7 away from home in all competitions.

The Hammers have produced 3 clean sheets in a row away from home which has to be respected and Antonio means they have a significant goal-threat returning this week. I expect that to make the difference for West Ham United with Leeds United being without their first choice striker, although the home team are more than capable of making up for Patrick Bamford's absence.

However, Leeds United have not been in their best form at either end of the field, while West Ham United have still looked very strong despite not winning any of their last 3 League games. Away wins at Dinamo Zagreb and at Old Trafford will make West Ham United believe they have the quality to break down Leeds United and I think they can be backed on the handicap to secure the points.


Leicester City v Burnley Pick: There will be a feeling that both of these teams have underachieved so far in this Premier League season, but there has to be enough encouragement for both Brendan Rodgers and Sean Dyche to believe their teams can turn things around.

Strong League Cup wins during the week will help the confidence for both Leicester City and Burnley who will have felt hard done by when VAR decisions went against them in defeats last weekend.

Burnley may be the more unfortunate of the two teams with their lack of points considering their performances, but Leicester City will believe they have come out of their toughest point of the season already. Injuries were hurting Leicester City, but the majority have cleared up and that could see an upturn in form and fortune for them.

There is some negative form going against both clubs- Leicester City have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at home, while Burnley have lost their last 3 away Premier League games. However, I think both teams are capable of causing problems for the other when they get forward and this may be the latest game between the clubs that ends with a few goals shared out.

The last 2 at the King Power Stadium have ended with three or more goals shared out, while 5 of the last 7 overall between Burnley and Leicester City have ended that way. After good Cup results, I think the two teams will be more confident this weekend and I do think defensive vulnerabilities can be exploited by each of the teams taking to the field.

It looks like a game that could produce goals.


Watford v Newcastle United Pick: It is far too early to be speaking about relegation six pointers, but you have to believe that both Watford and Newcastle United would have targeted matches against the other as being vital towards their survival bids.

The newly promoted club are in better form in the very early part of the Premier League season and Watford put a huge three points on the board by crushing Norwich City 1-3 at Carrow Road last weekend.

Being in mid-table is obviously a good thing, but Xisco Munoz knows the pressure is on to deliver enough strong results at all times. Watford have become known for chopping and changing managers very quickly when they feel things are going against them and so this is a big game for the manager to show he can keep the club in the top flight.

Playing away from home may suit Steve Bruce and his Newcastle United players with the fans clearly not happy with the direction of the club. They were booed off last week, but Bruce is maintaining he will not walk away from the job and there has been little to suggest Mike Ashley has lost faith in the manager.

Newcastle United need a win to ease growing concerns, but they are suffering with some key injuries and I do think they have continued to look vulnerable at the back.

Watford have been strong at home under their current manager, despite back to back losses at Vicarage Road, and I do think the squad is more settled. Only the starting goalkeeper is expected to sit out, but Ben Foster is more than a capable replacement and I do think Watford can create the chances to earn the win.

The Hornets also have a strong home record against Newcastle United in recent seasons and I think they do enough to win here.


Brentford v Liverpool Pick: The late Saturday kick off in the Premier League is a game that many Brentford fans would have never really expected to see.

Facing the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United has been a dream for people in the area for a long time, but Brentford are still getting used to having those clubs visiting this part of West London.

The players have not really begun the season with an inferiority complex though and that makes Brentford dangerous, while back to back wins gives them confidence. They are well organised under Thomas Frank and Brentford don't give a lot away, while their front two will make defenders work hard all day long.

However, this is a big test for Brentford against a Liverpool team that has picked up from where they left off at the end of last season. They have been winning plenty of games and Liverpool have been scoring goals away from home for fun.

Liverpool have also been pretty good at the back and the return of Virgil Van Dijk has been a huge boost for them. The regularly back line should all be available for this tough game, while Liverpool will feel they have the players capable of a touch of magic in the final third that can make the difference in what is expected to be a tight, competitive match.

I still think there is a little bit of work to do for Brentford if they are going to score a lot of goals at this level, despite the good football they are asked to play. This is the toughest test they would have had on their return to the top flight and I think Liverpool will just underline the difference between the very top clubs, and those expected to be finishing in the bottom half of the table.

Goals may not be as free-flowing as recent Liverpool away games, but I think the reality is that they have enough to secure the narrow victory on the day.


Southampton v Wolves Pick: If teams were going to be rewarded points for their performances rather than the goals they have been able to score, I think both Southampton and Wolves would be much higher up the Premier League table.

However, that is not how it works and this is a big game for both teams who have 4 and 3 points respectively.

At least Wolves have earned a victory in the League this season, but the 0-2 home loss to Brentford would have hurt. Southampton have yet to win, but they have had a much more difficult fixture list having played three matches against teams that finished in the top six last season.

Avoiding defeat in all of those is a bonus for Ralph Hasenhuttl's team, but it is a different mindset that is needed to win games Southampton will be expecting to. They would not have expected much change out of Manchester United, West Ham United and Manchester City and that has allowed Southampton to dig in, but the fans will be looking for their team to get forward more in this fixture.

That could leave Southampton vulnerable to the counter attack and Wolves certainly have plenty of pace in the forward areas to take advantage of any spaces left behind. We have yet to see Wolves really display a cutting edge to their football, but they have created chances and they looked better in their last away game at Watford a couple of weeks ago.

Wolves also have good memories of playing at this stadium with wins in 4 of their last 5 visits, although they have not always been easy.

The first goal is going to be key to the match, but I do have to favour Wolves very slightly in that regard. They have been a little stronger than Southampton at both ends of the field and a bit of composure should see Wolves motoring up the standings in the weeks ahead.

As a very slight underdog, Wolves could surprise this weekend with a victory to move above their opponents and leave Southampton waiting for their first Premier League win of the season.


Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: It hasn't been that long since the North London derby would be seen as one of the top games in the Premier League, but these days it feels much more about bragging rights than about deciding Champions League positions.

Not many would tip Arsenal or Tottenham Hotspur to be good enough to secure a top four finish this season, but the fans will care little for that ahead of the first derby of the campaign.

If the game had been played at the beginning of September, I imagine the odds would have been much tighter. At that point Arsenal had lost all 3 Premier League games played and Tottenham Hotspur had won all 3, but a month later it is all change.

Now it is Arsenal who have won back to back League games, while Spurs have been thumped by Crystal Palace and Chelsea. It also means Arsenal are considered a pretty strong favourite to win this game and I think there are plenty of reasons to believe they can do that.

However, Arsenal have yet to really convince with their play and Tottenham Hotspur manager Nuno Espirito Santo has a pretty good record here with his Wolves team. The defeat at Crystal Palace came off the back of a sending off when the game was goalless and I expect Tottenham Hotspur to be set up to play on the counter attack.

They have yet to find the balance Wolves had under the manager and that has meant Tottenham Hotspur have struggled to create a lot of good chances. Being without Steven Bergwijn and Lucas Moura will not help and I do think this is going to be a tight game where goals could be at a premium.

4 of the last 6 North London derby games have finished with three or more goals shared out, while the last 3 here have all ended the same way. You have to respect that, but both of these teams have struggled in the final third in the early part of this season and I do think that shows up in this Sunday afternoon fixture and I expect it to result in a lower scoring derby than the fans have gotten used to seeing.


Crystal Palace v Brighton Pick: Both Patrick Vieira and Graham Potter do like their teams to get down and play attractive, attacking football and that could mean a good game develops on Monday Night Football.

The atmosphere should be intense at Selhurst Park and I do think Crystal Palace are being a touch under-rated in this one.

They were well beaten at Liverpool last weekend, but Crystal Palace have produced some decent numbers in other games as they find the balance between Roy Hodgson's and Patrick Vieira's style. Crystal Palace might have done enough to win at the London Stadium and deserved the win over Tottenham Hotspur and I do think the points will be reflecting the performances soon.

Brighton know that it can take some time for that to happen having underachieved for much of last season, but they look all the better for it now. Wins have been coming frequently this season, but the numbers suggest they have been a touch fortunate this time around.

Both Burnley and Brentford will feel they did enough to avoid defeat against Brighton and I do think Crystal Palace have played well enough here to expect that to be the case. However, they might have a narrow edge with the home crowd behind them and Crystal Palace look a worthy underdog to bounce back from last weekend and beat their rivals at home for the first time since April 2018.

MY PICKS: Chelsea-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Burnley Over 2.5 Goals
Watford - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool & Under 4.5 Goals
Wolves 0 Asian Handicap
Arsenal-Tottenham Hotspur Under 2.5 Goals
Crystal Palace 0 Asian Handicap


Fantasy Football GameWeek 6
After picking up 61 points in GameWeek 5, my team has had a slight drop in the overall Rankings.

However, the key is that the team are still performing well enough and producing at least 60 points per week, an average across the season that will bring in a very good OR.

This week I had two transfers to use and I honestly would have been happy to roll it over another week if the game would allow me to put three transfers in the bank.

Unfortunately it does not do that so my only choice was to use a transfer or lose a transfer.

There are three players that I have considered changing and all are midfielders- Diogo Jota, Mason Greenwood and Said Benrahma.

My reasons for those players are below:

Diogo Jota- he is due a big return, but Liverpool have a pretty tough game in West London at Brentford and will then face Manchester City. With Roberto Firmino on the road back, I think Jota will be rotated again.

Mason Greenwood- a lethal finisher, I do think Mason Greenwood is someone who will out-perform his underlying numbers. However, Cristiano Ronaldo's return means Manchester United have been playing a little differently and I think Greenwood won't be having the same kind of opportunities that he got in the first three weeks.

Said Benrahma- his numbers are not that impressive of late and I do think he was very fortunate to have been given the goal against Manchester United last Sunday. However, the fixtures look kinder than for the other two players mentioned.


One of those are going to have to be moved out and I think the best replacement may be a midfielder in the 5.4 to 5.6 million range.

Andros Townsend, Conor Gallagher and Bryan Mbeumo may be the leading contenders. Demarai Gray looks to be heavily owned now, but Townsend could be a differential way into the Everton attack against Norwich City.

Bryan Mbeumo looks to have a tough game this week and Brentford are in a difficult portion of their schedule, but you can never ignore a player that is playing out of position when operating further up the pitch than the FPL game has expected.

The last player mentioned is Conor Gallagher who looks capable of thriving under the guidance of Patrick Vieira at Crystal Palace. He has got into some very good positions in the final third for his new club and Gallagher has produced some good looking numbers already, while also having a fixture list that looks appealing on paper.


The move to bring in a player of that kind of value will also put my squad in a good position to bring in the Chelsea players I want, especially with the fixtures coming up from GameWeek 7. I have mentioned before that they are a team that has to be targeted with the run of games coming up, plus the extra money in the bank does offer an opportunity to shape the squad in the manner I like.

I will have two transfers going into GameWeek 7 and will be having a real think about whether I will use both, or whether I will roll one over to the GameWeek after the next international break.

My team will be on Twitter just after the deadline on Saturday morning.

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