There has already been some controversy, upsets and everything else you would associate with the first four days of a Grand Slam, but the remnants of Hurricane Ida gave fans a very difficult experience.
Flash floods have affected New York City and New Jersey, while poor weather conditions were expected throughout Wednesday.
The unexpected? Having a match postponed underneath the Louis Armstrong Court Roof after the rain managed to break through on one of the two roofed courts at the US Open. It really was an experience that has not been seen before and it meant a delayed start to Day 5 as the organisers looked to make sure that fans would not be in danger coming onto the grounds.
It should be a warmer and clearer remainder of the tournament with the storm moved through the area and that is going to be a challenge for players who have to balance their tennis with their fitness as we start putting together the business end of the tournament.
Winners on Friday will be ready to compete in the second week of the tournament and in the main all of the favourites are still involved. It should mean some big time tennis is yet to be played in Flushing Meadows and there are some very good looking matches in the Third Round on Day 5 at the tournament.
Andrey Rublev - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: The first two sets of his Second Round win over Pedro Martinez were extremely difficult for Andrey Rublev, although I am not sure how much the conditions on Wednesday played their part. It was a wet, rainy, disruptive kind of day and Andrey Rublev was perhaps a little too eager to get off the court as soon as possible which meant he was likely pushing too hard and forcing mistakes out of his own game.
Andrey Rublev settled down in the last two sets and lost just two games as he moved through to the Third Round behind a four set victory. The numbers from the match were strong to suggest the Russian is capable of going much further in this tournament, although I do think he will be the first to admit that he is going to have to be better when facing a home player.
That simply means the crowd is also going to be behind Frances Tiafoe who has dropped a single set in this tournament and who is coming off a very good looking win over Guido Pella. There is a lot to like about the Frances Tiafoe potential on the court, but he will have to find a way to raise his level for two or three hours if he is going to earn the upset and that looks a tough ask of him.
Over the last few seasons, Frances Tiafoe has been very inconsistent on the hard courts and his numbers are not noted for being eye-catching in either the serving or returning departments. His athleticism and ability to play some flashy tennis means Tiafoe is a dangerous opponent, but you can't ignore the struggles the American has had when he has faced top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface.
Frances Tiafoe did beat Denis Shapovalov in Toronto to snap a ten match losing run to top 20 Ranked opponents, but he was later beaten by Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in that tournament. The numbers on the return take a serious dent when Frances Tiafoe takes on top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and puts pressure on his own serve having held just 76% of service games played against those said opponents.
Even in the last two seasons there has been little improvement on those serving numbers and that will make it a big challenge for Frances Tiafoe to stay with Andrey Rublev over two or three hours on the court. The last five hard court Grand Slam tournaments that Frances Tiafoe has played in have all been ended by top 20 Ranked players and the last three have ended in relatively one-sided fashion.
I expect the home crowd to rally Frances Tiafoe and he may even be able to win a set, but Andrey Rublev is a superior hard court player and the conditions should be much more stable on Friday. It should mean Rublev is able to move through to the second week of the US Open behind a good looking win as he covers the handicap mark set for the match too.
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: You can't be anything but impressed with the performances of Carlos Alcaraz in the US Open as he became the first 18 year old to reach multiple Grand Slam Third Rounds since Novak Djokovic did the same. Comparisons with Rafael Nadal have been common in his young career too, but Carlos Alcaraz is being mentored by Juan Carlos Ferrero and will be looking to pave his own way forward.
He has dropped just a single set on his way through to the Third Round and upset Cameron Norrie in the First Round, while Carlos Alcarez is enjoying the conditions as he is dominating behind serve. There has to be excitement about the development of the Spaniard and his numbers across his hard court matches in 2021 are encouraging, even if the feeling is that his best level will be found on the clay courts at this moment of his career.
That is not going to be a revelation for anyone, but Carlos Alcaraz has done enough in New York City to warrant plenty of respect, even if defeats to Lorenzo Sonego and Mikael Ymer in warm up tournaments are noteworthy. Carlos Alcaraz did have some decent wins in Cincinnati and Winston Salem before suffering those defeats and he may feel his higher Ranked opponent is a little vulnerable having spent a lot of time on the court already.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has also made some negative headlines in the first four days at the US Open and that means the crowd is not behind the charismatic youngster and it will be interesting to see how he handles that when things are not going his way. He was relatively unbothered in the four set win over Adrian Mannarino in the Second Round, but the extra time spent on court is not ideal following the long, long match against Andy Murray in the First Round which needed all five sets to separate them.
This is a player that is very comfortable on the hard courts, but fatigue is a concern and Stefanos Tsitsipas is going to be looking for a more secure performance all around in this match. He has yet to reach the Fourth Round at the US Open so there is some extra pressure on the Greek player in this one, but I do think he should match up pretty well with Carlos Alcaraz despite the strong performances produced by the teenager over the last week.
You do have to question the Stefanos Tsitsipas return and whether it will be good enough to win a Grand Slam on the hard courts at this moment in time, but I do think he is serving well and that should help him through this match. Carlos Alcaraz is a solid return player, but his own serve can be vulnerable when facing a player Ranked this high and I do think that will show up.
The day of rest between matches can only be a benefit for Stefanos Tsitsipas and I think he will have enough to find the breaks of serve to cover this handicap mark as he moves into the second week in New York City for the first time.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Darya Kasatkina: Both of these players have produced good looking wins in the first two Rounds of the US Open and the winner of this Third Round match may feel they have momentum behind them. Elina Svitolina and Darya Kasatkina have had successes on the hard courts over the last several weeks which will give them further confidence as they prepare to face each other for a place in the second week of the final Grand Slam to be played in 2021.
The former reached the Semi Final in Tokyo and Elina Svitolina came away with a Bronze Medal while winning a tournament last week in Chicago with some good, solid wins behind her. After a difficult season overall, Elina Svitolina will have headed into this week with a real belief behind her and her two straight sets wins can only increase the confidence of the player.
Darya Kasatkina reached the Final in San Jose and she is now 8-4 in her last twelve matches on the hard courts after coming from a set down to beat Marketa Vondrousova in the Second Round. The 24 year old feels like she has been on the Tour forever, but Kasatkina has not really backed up her potential as many felt she may do when cracking the top 10 of the World Rankings at the back end of the 2018 season.
There have been positive signs over the last twelve months which suggest Darya Kasatkina is going to be moving back up the World Rankings, while there have been a lot more positives on the hard courts in 2021 than negatives. Playing against top 20 Ranked opponents has been a challenge for Darya Kasatkina who has a 2-3 record in those matches on the hard courts in 2021 and whose numbers are average looking.
The serve can be vulnerable at times and Darya Kasatkina has to overcome a mental obstacle of losing all five previous matches against Elina Svitolina. The last of those came in 2019, but Elina Svitolina has been someone who has been aggressive on the return and managed to win 53% of return points played against Kasatkina, a number that will see her earn plenty of break points.
I do have to say that Elina Svitolina has struggled for consistency in 2021, but the last few weeks have shown signs that the Ukrainian is perhaps rediscovering some of her best form. The title win in Chicago is a huge boost and Svitolina has looked very good in this tournament as she flies under the radar somewhat despite being the Number 5 Seed in the draw.
Both Elina Svitolina wins in the draw have been impressive, and I do think she will get the better of Darya Kasatkina and she can cover this handicap mark as she makes it six wins out of six against this opponent.
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: There is a lot to like about the potential of 19 year old Leylah Fernandez as another of the young Canadian players who are making an impact on the Tour. She hasn't quite managed to do the same as some of her peers, but Leylah Fernandez is someone who should be operating much higher in the World Rankings in the years to come.
Wins over Ana Konjuh and Kaia Kanepi to move through to the Third Round are impressive, but only more so when you think Leylah Fernandez has yet to drop a set. Those are solid performances, but Leylah Fernandez and her team are going to know that she is up against one of the favourites to win the US Open over the coming ten days and this is a big step up from the opponents she has beaten so far in the tournament.
Eighteen months ago Leylah Fernandez beat Belinda Bencic, but she has lost the next four matches against top 20 Ranked opponents and the Canadian has not won a set in those hard court matches either. Now she has to take on a rested Naomi Osaka who has won two of the last three editions of the US Open and who was given a walkover in the Second Round.
Naomi Osaka was a strong winner in the First Round and the conditions in New York City seem to suit the Japanese player down to the ground. She has also won the Australian Open twice in 2019 and 2021 and I do think Naomi Osaka can thrive even under the pressure that she has begun to heap on herself.
You would hope that Osaka is surrounded by people who can help her manage those expectations, but she was surprisingly beaten in the Tokyo Olympics before we got to the Medal Rounds, although the World Number 3 is arguably the best hard court player in the world on the WTA Tour side of things.
An early loss at the Cincinnati Masters will have dented some of the confidence, but Naomi Osaka should be able to control the direction of this match. Her serve could be a potent weapon on these courts and I do think the Naomi Osaka return is one that is going to put Leylah Fernandez under an immense amount of pressure throughout the time they spend on court.
Leylah Fernandez is a competent hard court player and has won a title on the surface, albeit in an event where the highest Ranked player she defeated was Number 57, but this is a significant step up for her. If the Canadian serves at her best she may be able to keep this one competitive, but the scoreboard pressure will ramp up as Naomi Osaka tries to turn the screw and I think the defending Champion will be able to move through the gears and pull away for a win and a cover of this handicap mark set.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Botic Van De Zandschlup - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Barbora Krejcikova - 5.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ons Jabeur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
US Open Update: 14-13, - 2.16 Units (54 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
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