We are down to the final few days of the last Grand Slam to be played in the 2021 Tennis season and half of the Semi Final line up will be set up by the end of Tuesday evening.
All four matches are going to be played on Ashe on Day 9 of the tournament beginning at Midday local time and finishing close to the early hours of the morning.
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: The US Open regularly throws up players making surprising runs in the tournament with the final Grand Slam of the season being played at a time when a long Tour begins to take a toll on players. This year looks to be no different on both sides of the draw with some players making their way into the second week of the US Open without showing a lot of form prior to the tournament.
One of those is Leylah Fernandez who celebrated her 19th birthday on Monday, a day before she plays in her first Quarter Final at Grand Slam level. Prior to this tournament, Leylah Fernandez had only been beyond the Second Round at a Grand Slam once before, while early losses in Tokyo, Montreal and Cincinnati will have dented some of the confidence of a player looking to make improvements on the Tour.
The Canadian reached a career best World Ranking in June and there is clearly plenty of talent that could see Leylah Fernandez moving much further up those Rankings in the years to come. Her performances in beating multiple Grand Slam Champions Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber in the last two Rounds are encouraging, but Leylah Fernandez had produced a 2-4 record against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts in 2021 before this tournament began.
Losses to the likes of Barbora Krejcikova, Harriet Dart and Alison Riske in the summer hard court events makes the run here in New York City all the more surprising, but Leylah Fernandez may need to find another level again. Beating players like Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber will give her the confidence to believe there is another gear within her, but Elina Svitolina is playing at a considerably higher level.
Elina Svitolina won the Bronze Medal in Tokyo and had largely been involved in a disappointing season by her standards before that success. She has backed that up by winning a title in the week before the US Open began and nine wins in a row means the Ukrainian may be ready to finally win a Grand Slam having come close and ultimately struggled to deal with the mental side of things at the business end of previous events.
The four wins Elina Svitolina has produced in New York City have seen her produce an exceptional level and the numbers are backing that up. Her serve has been very effective, but it has also allowed Svitolina to tee off on the return of serve and she has broken at least three times in each match played.
The relatively short time spent on court should also mean Elina Svitolina is feeling fresh and it is going to be difficult for Leylah Fernandez to fight back from the kind of position she found herself in the last Round against someone in the form Svitolina is in.
These players have met once before on the hard courts in March 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the Tour and Elina Svitolina was a deserved winner. On that day the serve was a key weapon for the higher Ranked player and I do think that is going to be the case in this Quarter Final which should mean Elina Svitolina is in a position to win and cover this handicap mark.
You can't ignore the run Leylah Fernandez is on, but her four losses to top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 have been very one-sided and I think the Elina Svitolina level will give her every chance to cover this spread.
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: If you want to know the kind of improvements Barbora Krejcikova has made as a Singles player you can note that she was outside the top 100 of the World Rankings when the 2020 US Open was played. Now she heads into this Quarter Final inside the top 10 and she is a Grand Slam Champion having won the French Open title back in June.
Some players have struggled to build on a maiden Grand Slam, but Barbora Krejcikova has won another title since the French Open and the results have remained consistently strong. Losses to Belinda Bencic and Ashleigh Barty on the hard courts over the last few weeks might suggest that Barbora Krejcikova still needs to move up a level to compete with the very best players on the Tour on this surface.
However, the Czech player has to be massively respected and she did reach the Dubai Final earlier this year as well as winning a hard court title in Prague. She has not dropped a set at the US Open and Barbora Krejcikova overcame a second set collapse in her win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round to underline the kind of confidence she is playing with.
Confidence is not going to be an issue for Aryna Sabalenka either and the Belarusian has made comfortable progress through the last three Rounds. The numbers have remained at an elite level as Aryna Sabalenka has made her way through the draw and that is a slight concern for Barbora Krejcikova whose own numbers have slipped in each Round of the US Open.
Both players will feel they have a serve that can give them an opportunity to take control of rallies from the off, but it is Aryna Sabalenka who is showing off an aggressive return which is putting opponents under immense pressure. Reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon was a breakthrough for Sabalenka who has underachieved in Grand Slam tournaments despite becoming one of the top players on the WTA Tour and I do think the run will have given her plenty of belief about her game and where it can take her.
The World Number 2 should be able to produce the heavier serve of the two players in this Quarter Final and Aryna Sabalenka is going to get after the Barbora Krejcikova second serve which can make all the difference in this match. I think it will be a good one with plenty of quality tennis to enjoy, but Sabalenka looks to be playing at the higher level while Krejcikova may just be weakening as we get into the business end of the tournament.
Having a Grand Slam title behind her means Barbora Krejcikova is unlikely to go away easily, but Aryna Sabalenka can use the heavier weight of shot to keep the dominating wins coming.
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Carlos Alcaraz over 38.5 games: Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have missed the US Open, but Novak Djokovic is still representing the old guard at an extremely high level. However, there are some talented youngsters on the ATP Tour and two of those have reached the Quarter Final with a massive opportunity to reach a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final in front of them.
Felix Auger-Aliassime has just turned 21 years old and his appearance in the Quarter Final means he has managed to reach that stage in back to back Grand Slam events. His opponent is actually younger than him and Carlos Alcaraz at 18 years old looks like a really strong prospect as he continues what has been his best Grand Slam run.
The Spaniard is considered the future of men's tennis from that nation and Carlos Alcaraz backed up a big win over Stefanos Tsitsipas by coming from 2-1 down to beat Peter Gojowczyk in the Fourth Round. Carlos Alcaraz may have been fortunate to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas by the numbers, but his three other wins at the US Open have been impressive and he has been playing at a level that makes him dangerous in this Quarter Final.
Over the last twelve months Carlos Alcaraz has played well on the hard courts and he has certainly played well enough to think he can win a match like this one. He has spent a considerable amount of time on the court in each of the last two wins, but fatiguing issues should not be something that only Alcaraz should be worrying about.
That is largely because Felix Auger-Aliassime has been pushed hard in every match played in the tournament and he has spent longer on the courts than his opponent. His numbers have been steady in the tournament and it is wastefulness on the break points which has perhaps made the last two matches more difficult for Felix Auger-Aliassime than they should have been.
In those two matches the Canadian has broken six times, but he has had 30 break points, although the return may give him an edge in this match. Much will come down to whether he can take his chances and I do think Carlos Alcaraz is playing well enough to believe he can win at least one set even if Felix Auger-Aliassime is the favourite to progress to his first Semi Final at this level.
Carlos Alcaraz has to improve behind the serve having allowed his last two opponents to combine for fifteen breaks of serve with at least seven in each match. He is facing someone who can be a littel erratic on the return though and I do think the two players can produce a competitive Quarter Final which leads to this total games mark to be surpassed.
I do worry that one of them could fall away if they are behind with tiredness creeping in, while the emotional and mental challenge is one that both players are not going to be used to. Felix Auger-Aliassime has the experience of playing in a Grand Slam Quarter Final which may give him the edge, but I would not be surprised to this match go four, and potentially five sets.
The consistency of Felix Auger-Aliassime may be enough to see him through, but I am looking forward to seeing this match, one that could be deciding Grand Slams in the years ahead.
Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschulp: Any time you get into a Quarter Final of a Grand Slam you have to be expecting tight, competitive matches, but this one looks like being a one-sided match on the face of things. The layers have the same sense with a huge spread for this Round of a Grand Slam event, but Daniil Medvedev is playing at an incredible level and loves to be in New York City.
The crowd may not always be behind Daniil Medvedev, but that inspired him to reach the Final here two years ago and now he just loves playing in the atmosphere that is generated at this Grand Slam.
Daniil Medvedev has to be really pleased with his level since his Quarter Final defeat at the Olympic Games- he has won the title in Toronto, reached the Semi Final in Cincinnati and has barely broken a sweat to win his four matches at the US Open. To put it most simply, Daniil Medvedev is playing at an elite level and has not allowed his standards to slip in any match he has played at this tournament and the numbers need to be massively respected.
The Russian has only dropped serve three times in four matches, but Daniil Medvedev has barely been pushed on this side of his tennis. It is unlikely that Qualifier Botic Van De Zandschulp is going to get a lot more joy from the return than the first four players that Medvedev has faced and this is a huge challenge for the Dutchman.
All credit has to be given to any Qualifier who has managed to back that up with four main draw wins and Botic Van De Zandschulp is going to be given a massive boost in the World Rankings. He should be able to play at the 2022 Grand Slams without needing to enter any Qualifying tournaments and Van De Zandschulp has already beaten two top 15 Ranked opponents on his way through to the Quarter Final.
The run has come out of left field with little hard court tennis played this summer, while the numbers suggest Botic Van De Zandschulp has been able to play the big points really efficiently to keep his run going. That won't be easy to maintain against Daniil Medvedev and I do think the Qualifier is going to have to serve better than he has in this tournament to stay with the World Number 2.
Botic Van De Zandschulp has faced double digit break points in three of the four matches played in the main draw and now he has to deal with an opponent who has been in fine form. Daniil Medvedev has broken at least five times in each match played this week and I do think he is going to have too much for the Qualifier in the form Medvedev is bringing to the court.
The breaks and the confidence of the World Number 2 should see him work through a couple of sets with little fuss and players have struggled to win games against Daniil Medvedev this week. Botic Van De Zandschulp may feel he is serving well enough to challenge that, but Medvedev is someone who will get a lot of balls back in play and he will believe his superior groundwork will be enough to force the breaks and move through to another Semi Final here at Flushing Meadows.
MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Felix Auger-Aliassime-Carlos Alcaraz Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
US Open Update: 31-26, + 1.34 Units (114 Units Staked, + 1.18% Yield)
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